Canada's next Prime Minister?

[Brandon716]

Here's how I see the election today.

Harper needs 155 seats to form a majority. He currently has 124 seats. He'll have to win 31 seats and switch them to form a majority government.

Here's how Ontario and Quebec stand today.

With this data, I fail to see how Harper has enough support to win a majority.

The Bloc has dropped in support, but not at the benefit of Conservatives. Ironically most polls that show provincial level data are showing a significant rise in the NDP. The irony is that Quebec has traditionally treated the NDP like it doesn't exist.

Both Liberals and Conservatives are tied in Quebec, and both parties have gained a point or two and roughly stand at 25% each in Quebec.

That doesn't appear to be a groundswell of support for Harper. In fact, the Liberals stand to gain as many seats back from the Bloc as the Cons.

If Harper does make significant gains, it will be a bunch of 25-30% wins where the left has split into distinct factions. Harper's government won't last and it'll certainly be another minority if he wins at all.

The election just started though, anything is possible. In my opinion Harper has already maxed out his support in Ontario (all those blue seats were red just a short time ago) and Quebec has no trending towards a strong Conservative rise like the media seem to be portraying now.

 

[Brandon716]

Green party? Seriously?

I vote green, but I don't really expect them to win....

Considering Dion's huge green program, there is no reason to vote Green this election. If Dion hadn't brought his Green Shift program to light, I would have noted that the NDP has a very green platform in its own right.

Both the NDP and the Liberals offer a strong green platform in two variants for people who believe in green issues to support.

So why vote Green?

I'm supporting Nader in the US Presidential election because there's no choice and because I've lost confidence in the Democratic party to effect that change I want. In Canada when you have two left and left-centre parties both with very green platforms, I fail to see why there is an appealing reason to vote Green.

 

[kEiThZ]

So why vote Green?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough—Rouge_River

As you can see, my Liberal MP wins by 20 000 votes and that's unlikely to change for the rest of his career. He's a nice guy. He works hard for our riding and he deserves his success. But that makes my vote rather irrelevant. I'd rather the 1.75 or whatever it is in funds for election financing go towards the bolstering of a new party that would add to democracy in this country. I really don't think any other party really needs the funds....

 

[Brandon716]

I'll buy that argument since he has such a huge lead.

I would be much less inclined to support Nader if I didn't already know Pennsylvania will be voting for Obama regardless of my individual vote.

 

[Long Island Mike]

Canada Election 2008...

Everyone: I heard that an election has been called in Canada this Fall-nice go-along with the US Presidential election.

I try to keep up on Canada's politics when I can-someone tell me if I am right about Canada's political parties:
Conservatives-idealogically equivalent to the US Republican Party
Liberals-Idealogically equivalent to the US Democratic Party
NDP-Idealogically equivalent to the NYS Liberal Party or Ralph Nader's Green Party or very much left of center.
Bloc Quebecois-This one I cannot figure out how they stand on the political spectrum but can someone tell me where they would be? Compared to the old separatist Party Quebecois? Is the Bloc Quebecois pro separatist as I feel they may be?

In New York State we have Conservative(Right)and Liberal(Left)Parties alongside the Republican and Democratic Parties.

Who will be the best choice for Prime Minister that Canada has at this point?

BRANDON: Those maps of Ontario and Quebec were interesting-where can I find maps showing the other provinces and their ridings?
-Insight and questions by Long Island Mike-

 

[Brandon716]

The map I got clips from is the CBC map from 2006:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2006/

Obviously I don't have to make it a secret, I'm hoping Canada gives Dion a chance to govern. He's a very intellectual guy and what he lacks in public speaking ability is picked up in his knowledge of policy.

The green shift plan is a bold plan and change doesn't come from sitting around, cutting taxes in a minimal way, and creating deficit like the Harper government will do.

 

[Whoaccio]

I try to keep up on Canada's politics when I can-someone tell me if I am right about Canada's political parties:
Conservatives-idealogically equivalent to the US Republican Party
Liberals-Idealogically equivalent to the US Democratic Party
NDP-Idealogically equivalent to the NYS Liberal Party or Ralph Nader's Green Party or very much left of center.
Bloc Quebecois-This one I cannot figure out how they stand on the political spectrum but can someone tell me where they would be? Compared to the old separatist Party Quebecois? Is the Bloc Quebecois pro separatist as I feel they may be?

I don't know how accurate that is. Canadian politics aren't as similar to the US as everyone seems to think. On all of the issues that seem to rile up the GOP vs. Dems debate, there is fairly broad consensus in Canada. We already have a public healthcare system, and no party will touch that aside from making the odd push for more private involvement here or there. Gay rights are relatively sacrosanct, the CPC have given up on it as a cause. Abortion is more or less in the same boat. The CPC are terrified of being assosciated with the Republicans, and have gone to great lengths to sanitize their platforms of any mention of same sex marriage or abortion.

The main wedge issue, if you like, in Canada is the structure of the nation. The US doesn't really have any parallel to the BQ or the Reform Party. That is probably one of the more contentious issues in Canada. Certainly more so that "state's rights" in the US. I would actually say the Conservatives have more in common with the Democrats than the Republicans. Maybe during the 90s, you could draw parallels between the Reform/Republicans and the Liberals/Democrats, but the new CPC under Harper has gone to some lengths to move towards the political center.

 

[kEiThZ]

I'll buy that argument since he has such a huge lead.

I would be much less inclined to support Nader if I didn't already know Pennsylvania will be voting for Obama regardless of my individual vote.

Regardless, I am not a fan of strategic voting. I believe that voting according to one's conscience is the purest expression of democratic intentions and informs the government (regardless of who wins) on where the electorate lies.

Personally, I am drawn to the Green's socially progressive, fiscally conservative message. I would like to see that evolve more politically. I am not a big fan of their anti-military stance, which I think is rather simplistic. But I say good on them for improving the depth of political debate in this country.

 

[kEiThZ]

I don't know how accurate that is. Canadian politics aren't as similar to the US as everyone seems to think. On all of the issues that seem to rile up the GOP vs. Dems debate, there is fairly broad consensus in Canada. We already have a public healthcare system, and no party will touch that aside from making the odd push for more private involvement here or there. Gay rights are relatively sacrosanct, the CPC have given up on it as a cause. Abortion is more or less in the same boat. The CPC are terrified of being assosciated with the Republicans, and have gone to great lengths to sanitize their platforms of any mention of same sex marriage or abortion.

The main wedge issue, if you like, in Canada is the structure of the nation. The US doesn't really have any parallel to the BQ or the Reform Party. That is probably one of the more contentious issues in Canada. Certainly more so that "state's rights" in the US. I would actually say the Conservatives have more in common with the Democrats than the Republicans. Maybe during the 90s, you could draw parallels between the Reform/Republicans and the Liberals/Democrats, but the new CPC under Harper has gone to some lengths to move towards the political center.

Social conservatism in the US vein is political suicidie in Canada. We want our Conservatives to be good fiscal and economic managers. That's essentially what we expect from them. As a result, a true US style Republican platform would never ever sell in Canada.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

This poll is messed up now. The Bloc have no ability to win... they aren't running in enough seats.

Sure they can win...but both the Greens and the Dippers would need to win like 50 seats...

 

[urbandreamer]

9 September 2008 photo update

Fermanagh Avenue, 4:10PM today: the NDP/Peggy Nash crew out in force, putting up signs.

 

[CDL.TO]

Fermanagh Avenue, 4:10PM today: the NDP/Peggy Nash crew out in force, putting up signs.

Those NDP volunteers are working FAST! They're just a blur! Gerard Kennedy has a battle head of him!

 

[Brandon716]

Social conservatism in the US vein is political suicidie in Canada. We want our Conservatives to be good fiscal and economic managers. That's essentially what we expect from them. As a result, a true US style Republican platform would never ever sell in Canada.

Yet it was the Liberals that balanced budgets for a decade while the Conservatives have pushed Canada to deficit in a recent quarter and likely to push it into a yearly deficit in the near future.

So for good fiscal management Dion would be the man to support.

If Dion doesn't win this election, I hope Kennedy becomes leader of the Liberals. He was my candidate of choice last go around.

 

[Brandon716]

 

[afransen]

Everyone: I heard that an election has been called in Canada this Fall-nice go-along with the US Presidential election.

I try to keep up on Canada's politics when I can-someone tell me if I am right about Canada's political parties:
Conservatives-idealogically equivalent to the US Republican Party
Liberals-Idealogically equivalent to the US Democratic Party
NDP-Idealogically equivalent to the NYS Liberal Party or Ralph Nader's Green Party or very much left of center.
Bloc Quebecois-This one I cannot figure out how they stand on the political spectrum but can someone tell me where they would be? Compared to the old separatist Party Quebecois? Is the Bloc Quebecois pro separatist as I feel they may be?

In New York State we have Conservative(Right)and Liberal(Left)Parties alongside the Republican and Democratic Parties.

Who will be the best choice for Prime Minister that Canada has at this point?

BRANDON: Those maps of Ontario and Quebec were interesting-where can I find maps showing the other provinces and their ridings?
-Insight and questions by Long Island Mike-

The Conservatives are probably closer to Thatcheresque conservatism or John Howard of Australia than to the Republicans, especially since they officially try to avoid most social conservative hotbuttons. They do, however, have a penchant for infusing some degree of religious overtones into Canada's pretty overwhelmingly secular debate. Harper ends just about every speech with 'God bless Canada' in an echo of more US-style speeches.

The Liberals are probably to the left of democrats socially, but tend not to be union heavy, I think. They have been fiscal pragmatists since the '90s--I wouldn't describe them as being overly ideological. Many people say they campaign on the centre-left and govern on the centre-right.

The NDP are mostly anti-capitalist union-types, with the odd streak of environmentalism and all-around protest vote. This last is diminishing and bleeding off to the Greens. Maybe the left wing of the Democrats...

The Bloq are fairly liberal in outlook, and are the federal brother of the Parti Quebecois (the provincial party). Both parties are in favour of Quebec secession, but since Quebeckers aren't, they posture mainly as representing Quebec and holding the balance of power.

The Greens are fiscally conservative with a bent toward market incentives for environmental protection. They are social liberals. They are an emergent party after garnering 5% or so in the last election and polling at around 10% at the moment. No seats yet (well, technically one, just barely)...