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Budget 2008 - Federal

cacruden

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Well let me get the talk on the budget started - yes I know nothing has been released, but discussions related to the Federal Conservative party here are fairly consistent.

All I can say is I am completely outraged at the cut to program x.

Where someone response - yes I agree that program is really important to the future of Canada - can't believe they cut that .... I know I have not figures or statistics to see how effective it is.... but it is very important at any cost.
:rolleyes:
 
Well, in order to have this discussion, you'll have to tell us dx/dt or perhaps give us the local taylor approximation.
 
Allow me to add my two cents to the pre-debate (I'm being thrifty).
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Thrifty budget to prop up auto industry and fund cities
Tories aim to secure votes in Ontario and urban Canada with targeted spending

BRIAN LAGHI AND STEVEN CHASE
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
February 25, 2008 at 1:00 AM EST

OTTAWA — The Harper Conservatives will aid the ailing automotive sector and provide assistance for infrastructure construction in a modest budget Tuesday aimed at managing a potential economic slowdown, sources have told The Globe and Mail.

Sources said Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will address both sectors in a spending document that would shore up political weaknesses in Ontario and in urban Canada. The government would funnel close to $1-billion for infrastructure and another $200-million for the auto industry. Late last year, the auto parts sector asked for a $400-million package from the federal and Ontario governments.

The package is a clear effort to woo voters in Ontario, where the country's automotive sector is located, and in urban Canada, where the Conservatives hold few seats.

The budget could be the precursor to an election if the Opposition defeats it in confidence motions this week and next.

The Finance Minister reiterated Monday that there will be no major pledges in the spending document. However, he did say there would be “one or two†surprises.

“We are doing spending, but we're doing spending in a controlled way, given the economic circumstances this year and next year,†he said.

“People ought not to expect any big spending items because we have to stay within our means and be prudent and fiscally responsible, which we will be tomorrow.†In keeping with the theme, Mr. Flaherty sported a pair of resoled black brogues, eschewing the tradition of purchasing new shoes.

The minister said the budget will be balanced and suggested he will accelerate a government spending review process he put in place one year ago to find increased savings.

It's also widely expected the Conservatives will unveil a tax measure for investors that serves as an incentive to save, possibly one to shelter capital gains. This would be an attempt to make up for the fact the Tories have so far failed to deliver on a two-year-old campaign pledge to provide some tax relief on capital gains.

The Tories are also concerned about the slowing Ontario economy, which has seen the manufacturing industry hit hard while other provinces, such as Alberta, have seen their resource-based economies roar. The Conservatives are sitting on a hefty budget surplus for the year ending March 31, one that could be as high as $13-billion instead of the $11.6-billion expected.

Other measures expected Tuesday include an extension of a temporary $565-million annual tax break for manufacturers which allows investments in equipment to be written off more quickly, and an overhaul of government support for research and development. The government currently spends $9-billion on R&D, and there could be up to another $300-million thrown into that pot.

Money will also be available for graduate students studying sciences as part of the Tories' push to make Canada more competitive. There may also be more cash to clean up lakes, particularly in Ontario.

A focus on Ontario and on urban Canada may make it easier for the federal Liberals to swallow the budget, thereby avoiding a late winter election campaign. Liberal sources have told The Globe that the party would prefer to stay away from the election hustings for the time being. One scenario making the Liberal rounds suggests the party could bring the Conservatives down on a budget amendment after the results of four by-elections in mid-March.

But it seems the Tories may also lack ardour for an immediate election, given they appear to be loading the budget with items the opposition can support. “They do not want an election right now,†one Ottawa insider said.

The pledge for close to $1-billion in infrastructure funding echoes the Liberal playbook, as Stéphane Dion pledged to funnel surplus cash above $3-billion to infrastructure spending.

In the House of Commons, the government said it will not accept any amendments to the budget.

“Unlike the Liberals in previous years who amended their budget after it had been tabled, we will not accept any amendments that the Liberals would like to propose that will drive us into a deficit,†said Ted Menzies, Mr. Flaherty's parliamentary secretary.

Both the NDP and the Bloc Québécois are expected to oppose the budget.

The lean budget arrives just as the International Monetary Fund served up a gloomier outlook for Canada's economy.

The international agency yesterday chopped Canada's 2008 economic growth target to 1.8 per cent, down from an October forecast of 2.3 per cent and last year's estimated pace of 2.5 per cent. A growth rate of 1.8 per cent would be the slowest since 2001, when the U.S. economy fell into recession.
 
I don't agree with the fact they're still planning on taking $10-billion to pay down the debt. Yes, it's important to decrease our debt load, but I'm on the side of economists who believe that during times of economic duress, debt repayment should sit on the sidelines while you stimulate the economy through infrastructure and program spending. Besides, our country's debt isn't just monetary, it's in our transit, roads, and buildings. $1-billion in "don't-vote-down-our-budget" infrastructure funding doesn't cut it.


F*#& that GST cut.
 
Well, there's not much in it. $500 million for transit across the country is a bit of a joke. I don't necessarily object to the idea of the debt repayment. It's a good strategy in uncertain times. If we do start to see a real slowdown, it's a great time for infrastructure spending. The provinces seem to be taking the lead in this aspect, with the many transit mega-plans that have emerged in recent years. As a side benefit, they'd make excellent economic stimulus.

I love how the two main environmental spending intiatives are an AECL bailout and money for a coal plant.

I completely agree with 299 about the GST cut. What an absolute waste. That really was an abdication of the responsibility to govern in the interests of the country.


Dion says no election over budget
Conservatives present stingy budget as the economy slows

KEVIN CARMICHAEL AND DARREN YOURK

Globe and Mail Update

February 26, 2008 at 5:10 PM EST

OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion slammed today's Conservative budget as "one mile wide and one inch deep" but said his party would not force a spring election over the document.

"Under the circumstances, I don't see enough in this budget that would justify that we precipitate an election that Canadians do not want for now," Mr. Dion said.

Earlier, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty presented the stingiest federal budget in more than a decade, reflecting weaker economic growth that forced the government to cut its revenue projections for this year and next.

Mr. Flaherty announced initiatives — including a tax-exempt savings fund and a tax break for factories — valued at $5.92-billion over the next three years.

That's an average of about $1.97-billion a year through 2010, the smallest since the former Liberal government of Jean Chrétien pledged initiatives worth $4.4-billion over four years in 1997.

"Our government is taking the path that requires focus, prudence and discipline,'' Mr. Flaherty said in his budget speech in the Commons.

All indications in the run-up to budget day pointed to the NDP and Bloc Québécois opposing the budget, and the party leaders did little to dispel that Tuesday.

"This is a budget that clearly fails the working families of Canada," NDP Leader Jack Layton said.

"In fact, individual taxpayers are going to have to pay 12 per cent more of the cost of government, while corporations will pay 14 per cent less . . . "

"There is nothing here to train the doctors that families need," Mr. Layton said.

"There is nothing to help deal with prescription drug costs that are really tough on families now. There's nothing for affordable housing. It is not a budget that New Democrats can support."

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe said his party will vote against the budget, rhyming off a long list of things he felt the document was missing.

"There aren't significant gains for Quebec in this budget," Mr. Duceppe said.

"There is strictly nothing to help the manufacturing industry. There is something for the Ontario automobile industry, but nothing for Quebec, nothing for forestry industry, nothing for ordinary workers."

However, the Bloc and NDP positions became moot when the Liberals announced their decision not to force an election over the budget.

Former Liberal finance minister Ralph Goodale said the budget accomplishes little, but does touch on a few initiatives pushed by Mr. Dion and the party — more funding for infrastructure, direct assistance to the auto sector and putting more police officers on Canadian streets.

"There is little in this budget that one would put in the offensive category," Mr. Goodale said. "It's not the basis upon which we would defeat the government for now."

Factors abroad are limiting Mr. Flaherty's room to manoeuvre at home. The U.S. economy, which buys more than 80 per cent of Canada's exports of goods, is teetering on the brink of recession amid the worst housing market in a generation.

At the same, global demand for oil, wheat and other commodities that Canada produces is inflating the value of the dollar, taking an even greater toll on manufacturing revenue.

Mr. Flaherty refused to waver from his commitment to put much of any surpluses toward reducing Canada's $457-billion debt.

He pledged $10.2-billion of the $12.9-billion in the fiscal year ending in March to pay down debt. The government plans debt payments of $2.3-billion in the fiscal year ending in 2009 and $1.3-billion in the fiscal year ending in 2010.

"I'd give it a B plus,&" Kevin Dancey, president of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants, said of Mr. Flaherty's financial plan.

"We are in a pretty volatile economic environment right now. In that context, what else could they do?"

They could have found more money for Canadian factories, which are taking the brunt of the global economic slowdown, said Jay Myers, president of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters.

Mr. Flaherty extended a tax break on capital equipment that will cost the government about $1-billion in foregone revenue over the next five years.

Manufacturers and processors will now be able to deduct the depreciation of equipment at a higher rate through 2012, three years longer than the Harper government first proposed in its 2007 budget.

Mr. Myers said his members needed a five-year extension because companies need more time to plan their investments.

"This is the sector that is most at risk," Mr. Myers said. "We were expecting more aggressive action."

Mr. Flaherty highlighted the $60-billion of tax cuts over the next five years that was announced in October as his government's answer to a troubled economy.

"This year alone, our government is injecting $21-billion of stimulus into the Canadian economy," Mr. Flaherty said.

"As a share of the economy, this is significantly greater than the stimulus package offered by the U.S."

To its tax initiatives, the government added the Tax-Free Savings Account, which will work much the same way as Registered Retirement Savings Plans.

Starting in 2009, Canadians 18 and older will be allowed to invest up to $5,000 in a tax-sheltered TFSA. They won't pay taxes on any investment gains, and they can withdraw the money without penalty at any time they want.

The initiative, aimed at boosting Canada's savings rate, is the first of its kind. It may relieve some of the pressure on the Harper government to address higher taxes on wealthier individuals, which critics say make it difficult to attract high-paid scientists, bankers and other white collar workers.

The remainder of Mr. Flaherty's budget consisted of range of targeted measures aimed at cities, the elderly, students, aboriginals and the environment.

Highlights include:

* $500-million for investment in public transit.

* A $2-billion fund for infrastructure investment will be made permanent.

* $250-million over five years to help the automotive industry develop more environmentally friendly vehicles.

* $350-million for a Canada Student Grant Program.

* $90-million for older workers hurt by factory closures.

* $300-million to for nuclear energy.

* $330-million over two years to improve access to safe drinking water for First Nations.

Mr. Flaherty also announced a series of border and security initiatives, including $400-million to encourage provinces to recruit 2,500 police officers. The Communications Security Establishment will get $43-million to buy new surveillance gear, and Canada Border Services will get a boost of $75-million. The government also said it will aim to introduce electronic passports in 2011.
 
I have not added up all the numbers, but just perusing them I can see no more than around 1 billion / year in spending commitments (whereas cuts may or maynot happen - but they will not be highlighted in the budget - but on a item by item basis). Don't think there will be a deficit for another year at least.

I am assuming that there is a smiggin of deficit paid off, the interest on that will cover a small bit. I also assume that as interest rates are coming down, that some of the longer debt will come due and renewed (potentially at a lower interest rate now).

I am hoping that there will be no return to deficits - and I will be the first one to throw my vote away from the Conservatives if that happens (as long as Dion is replaced).
 
Whatever else may happen, it's safe to say that there will be no deficit. That would be death to the Conservatives, and they know it. In case of really tough economic times (reduction of revenues) there will be a slash and burn approach to spending before there will be a deficit.

This is a pretty ho-hum budget, as far as I can see. Nothing much to object to, and nothing much to really grab the imagination.
 
cacruden: what looks like a sliver of a surplus is deceptive: we 'hide' $3 billion in surplus under fiscal prudence.
 
I'll take full advantage of the new tax-free savings plan, to augment my RRSP. I only wish it were set at a higher contributory level.

But I'm still never voting Conservative!
 
The savings plan benefits the rich more than the middle-class. Even if the middle class taxpayer can contribute the full $5k, they are saving a lower marginal tax rate than the person in the highest tax bracket. I don't think this is the most well-conceived savings incentive. Then again, it scratches the backs of those it is supposed to, if you want to be cynical.
 
Putting away only $5,000 a year - every year - and letting it sit there, untaxed and with compound interest building up for a couple of decades, will create a nice little nest egg. There's no penalty for withdrawing it at any time either if you want a little fun money along the way.
 
Yes, I know how it works. I'm just saying it provides the most incentive to people who are already saving anyway, and the least incentive to those we (as a society) would like to encourage to save.
 
You mean the very poor, who don't pay income tax? Obviously they find it difficult to save under any circumstances, so "incentive" probably isn't really a word that applies to their situation. But it helps the thrifty who aren't in that category, and their thrift will increasingly be subsidised as more money is put away and the interest it earns compounds untaxed.
 

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