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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Average price of Toronto detached home shoots past $1 million

Link to full article: http://www.thestar.com/business/rea...onto-detached-home-shoots-past-1-million.html

After reading the aforementioned article and discussing with others, one of the most frequent comments that will arise is,"Who are buying these houses? And who can actually afford these?". My response is typically along the lines of "there's a lot of money floating around in Toronto!"

Referencing another Toronto Star write-up from last year (article: Toronto ranks 15th on global list of millionaires per city), apparently 1 in 44 people in Toronto fall under their millionaire classification. The study was conducted by WealthInsight (press release: OVER ONE IN EVERY 30 A MILLIONAIRE IN LONDON) who defined millionaire as "individuals with net assets of US$1 million or more, excluding their primary residences" (source: Revealed: Global cities with the highest percentage of millionaires). While in London, England, 1 in every 30 would be classified as a millionaire, Toronto isn't that far off. Keeping in mind this is not including equity in your primary residence, I don't think it's unfair to say that there are a lot of high net worth individuals in the city.

People with assets of $1+ million exclusive of their primary residence are not the people buying $800k homes in Toronto. You're also talking about ~2% of Toronto's population. That doesn't explain current debt-to-income ratios, median and average prices in comparison to median and average incomes, etc.

The statistics show that people are borrowing huge sums of money to buy these houses and they are likely borrowing more than they should given consumer debt levels versus income. There are tons of Torontonians who are equity rich right now, but that can change in an instant as America found out in 2008.
 
No subprime loans in good old Canada they said...

Just as in Vancouver, Toronto buyers are now scrambling to come up with the 20% downpayment or $200,000 on a $1 million home, if they want to borrow from a major bank. And, just as happened on the West Coast, Toronto buyers are turning to sub-prime lenders to get them over the hump, facing interest rates of close to 13%.

Yana Papanyan, vice-president of credit and underwriting at First Swiss Mortgage Corp., which is a major player when it come to helping this subprime segment of the market, says in a typical situation, a client might buy a property worth $1 million but only have $100,000 downpayment. First Swiss Mortgage will provide the other $100,000 under a second mortgage starting at 12.99%.

“Clients have to top up to 20% to get a bank to approve. We are filling that gap between what the client has as a downpayment and what the bank will accept,” said Ms. Papanyan. “About 80% of [First Swiss’ mortgages] in Vancouver are high-priced properties.”

He estimates alternative lenders, who are major beneficiaries of that subprime market, now underwrite 2.2% of all mortgage loans, with the market having grown by 25% over the past year.

http://business.financialpost.com/2...ers-resort-to-sub-prime-loans-as-prices-soar/

Everything is awesome...
 
People with assets of $1+ million exclusive of their primary residence are not the people buying $800k homes in Toronto. You're also talking about ~2% of Toronto's population. That doesn't explain current debt-to-income ratios, median and average prices in comparison to median and average incomes, etc.

The statistics show that people are borrowing huge sums of money to buy these houses and they are likely borrowing more than they should given consumer debt levels versus income. There are tons of Torontonians who are equity rich right now, but that can change in an instant as America found out in 2008.


Interesting from the Globe today online:

Toronto ranks among cities that will ‘dominate’ for world’s megarich

Michael Babad

The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Mar. 05 2015, 7:29 AM EST

Last updated Thursday, Mar. 05 2015, 3:26 PM EST

72 comments
Follow Michael Babad and The Globe's Business Briefing on Twitter.

Where Toronto stands
Toronto ranks among cities of key importance to the world’s megarich, a new report suggests.

Indeed, Toronto will be among those that “dominate,” says the study released today by Knight Frank, a global real estate consultancy whose annual Wealth Report is widely followed.

The study lists the 40 “most important cities” for the wealthy this year, among other things, and ranks Canada’s financial capital as No. 12.

Ahead of Toronto are London, New York, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Miami, Paris, Dubai, Beijing, Zurich and Tokyo.

Rounding out the top 20 behind Canada’s biggest city are Geneva, Sydney, Taipei, Frankfurt, Moscow, Madrid, San Francisco and Vienna.

“Of course, if we measure a city’s importance by political power, Washington D.C. and Beijing will be at the top of three, followed closely by Brussels, the power base of the EU,” the report says.

“If we assess quality of life, a clutch of northern European, Canadian and Australian cities, led by the likes of Melbourne and Toronto, will dominate.”

These cities aren’t necessarily home to the most ultrahigh net worth individuals, or those who aren’t just millionaires but whose assets are off the charts, with net worth topping $30-million (U.S.).

“You may need to lobby in Washington or Brussels, but you are less likely to want to live there.”

High net worth individuals have been flocking to Canada, which is among the top countries where destination is concerned, trailing behind Britain, Singapore, the U.S., Australia and Hong Kong.

And here’s a fun stat: Canada ranks as No. 4 in the study’s “Big Spenders Index,” which looks at how the wealthy among us are likely to spend their money.

In that regard, we rank behind Britain, at No. 1, China and Qatar.

Just today, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada projected that Toronto will lead the country’s luxury real estate market this spring.


“Positive gains are also anticipated for the Vancouver market, while Montreal is expected to maintain balance,” it said.

“Continued uncertainty in the Calgary economy is expected to temper sales throughout the spring, with the degree of long term impact to be determined.”

The Greater Toronto Area, which takes in several surrounding regions, will see “strong demand” for detached homes worth more than $1-million, in particular.

“Furthermore, Toronto’s recent ranking as the best place to live in the Economist’s 2015 Safe Cities Index, along with a lower Canadian dollar, only strengthens its global appeal as a destination for foreign real estate investment.”


Of course I am waiting for those who support Toronto's real estate market to say they had the foresight to see this would be the case. While I thought Canada would get some help due to its political stability, some of these factors have got to be putting wind behind at least the upper end market.
 

Just today, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada projected that Toronto will lead the country’s luxury real estate market this spring.

What kind of a projection is this? Doesn't Toronto almost always lead the luxury real-estate market in both price and volume? It would have been far more interesting if they said Muskoka would lead.
 
A lawyer's opinion:

"So…About That Bubble

As a new Torontonian, I have quickly learned two things:
Torontonians are obsessed with real estate.
The condo revolution in Toronto is no trend.

It is nearly impossible in Toronto to avoid headlines and unsolicited advice warning us that Toronto is in the throes of a housing bubble, and (lookout friends!) this cannot last.

As we continue in what seems to be year 12-14 of the housing upcycle, does this notion of a housing bubble make sense? Aren't bubbles supposed to burst?

On October 30th, the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management hosted a packed house of industry leaders for the Toronto Life In Conversation series event– The Future of Toronto Real Estate, which focused on exactly this.

The question posed to the panel which included industry experts, Craig Alexander, of TD Bank; Paul Bedford, former chief planner for the City of Toronto; Paul Golini Jr., of Empire Communities ; Eve Lewis, of Woodcliffe Landmark Properties; and Mazyar Mortazavi, of TAS., was simply:
"What is the single most driving factor of housing prices in Toronto?"

Overall, the panelists agreed, the Toronto economy is strong, affordability is good and specifically, the relative affordability of condominiums makes for a realistic entry point to the market for first time buyers and immigrants. Overall, buyers are confident in the stability of our market (what bubble?), and a lot of that confidence stems from low interest rates, which makes for cheap debt.

Counting the number of cranes in the sky may lead you to believe that Toronto will soon have a surplus of condominium units. However, construction of new units, of which there are 100,000 currently in development, is directly in line with the city's growth. Experts estimate that the Toronto population will hit 3-3.5 million people by 2031 and 13.5 million by 2041 in the G.T.A., so don't expect a surplus of vacant units – and subsequent drop in condo prices - any time soon.

Interestingly, there was some debate amongst panelists as to the lack of off-shore investors in the Toronto condominium market (contrary to Vancouver) and that international investors not, in fact buying up condos by the bucketful. Instead, local buyers make up the majority of purchasers who are purchasing units as investments to rent and hold on to for either themselves or their children.
Much conversation focused on the definition of 'home' and that the white picket fence just doesn’t cut it anymore. Lifestyles are changing and people want to live, work and play in the downtown core, which has become much more liveable and vibrant than say, 15 years ago. As we are already experience, the trend of raising families in condos will continue, and developers and the City will have to work together to create urban spaces, infrastructure and schools that accommodate this.

But what about the "Bubble?"

Craig Alexander predicts that although there may be slight increases over the next few years the Bank of Canada "must wean people off of cheap debt, but it can't go cold turkey". He points at the Millennial Generation as one to watch, and predicts that a slight increase in interest rates will affect the confidence of those who did not live through the dark days of interest rates at 18% and who believe that rates hovering around 2.5% are normal. This, Alexander predicts, may contribute to a cycle where buyers pull back. A little.

Luckily for all of us in the industry, long term support for the condominium market in an increasingly cool and globally coveted city is looking great. The takeaway message: Don't expect this bubble to burst any time soon.

Jaime K. Bell
Related Practice Areas
Commercial Real Estate Law | BRIDGE Network

Robins Appleby Barristers + Solicitors Logo and Wordmark'
 
Corruption brings in money

Vancouver has lead in price if not volume I believe

Of course it has....

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/0...egedly-corrupt-officials-and-laundered-money/

Chinese police agents have been conducting secret operations in Canada — a top destination for allegedly corrupt officials — seeking to “repatriate†suspects and money laundered in real estate.

CHINESE WEALTH FOCUSING ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

A “staggering†amount of Chinese wealth that has poured into Vancouver homes since 2011 is increasingly flowing into commercial real estate deals, realtors say.

Colliers’ Spark Report says the global outflow of Chinese capital hit a record of $18 billion in 2014, and the amount flowing to Canada and specifically Vancouver is rising.

The report notes several “landmark deals†made by Chinese investment funds in the past year including a 232-acre Port Moody development site on which Chinese investors want to build an “urban village.â€

Kirk Kuester, executive managing director of Colliers International Vancouver, said the pool of money from Mainland China seeking investments in Metro Vancouver is so vast right now that he has to turn away potential clients.

“The money is staggering, quite honestly,†Kuester said.

“It is essentially from Mainland China. They were looking at private houses in residential developments in Vancouver, and it really seemed to accelerate in mid-2013. It’s a security play, and a diversification play.

“But now we are seeing them look for cash flow from commercial sites. The biggest challenge we face is scale and process.â€

Kuester said a range of Chinese investors — from state-backed funds to smaller players with just tens of millions — expect to quickly ink deals for land by offering sky-high bids. But they are sometimes frustrated by the politicized nature of development deals in Vancouver, and multi-bid processes.

Kuester said, for example, that on Wednesday he had two or three potential clients with “half-a-billion†in private funds ready to put to work, but there are simply not big enough deals to satisfy them.

“Some of these groups want to buy the biggest sites in the city and do developments that are comparable to projects in China, but would be on the upper end of anything ever done here,†Kuester said.

Dan Scarrow of Macdonald Realty Ltd. also said massive interest from China buyers in high-end Vancouver area neighbourhoods is “shifting more now towards commercial real estate.â€

Vancouver city officials will not comment on co-operation with Chinese agents in “Operation Fox Hunt,†or on suspects pointed to by Chinese news services.

Xinhua news agency reported that while China does not have extradition treaties with Canada, the United States and Australia — the three top destinations for corruption suspects — in 2013 Canada and China signed an agreement to share assets connected to corruption.

Starting in 2014, Chinese agents came to Canada and other countries, Xinhua reported.

The Province found indications in various data sources of large wealth allegedly misappropriated in China and invested in condo and commercial developments and private residences in and around Vancouver.

Also, according to The Province’s review of data posted by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, there are a number of offshore shell companies linked to addresses in Vancouver, West Vancouver and Richmond, with connections to Mainland China.

City Manager Penny Ballem was asked if Vancouver officials are taking any actions against money laundering.

“In terms of corruption and money laundering, I can tell you in my conversations with (Vancouver Police Chief) Jim Chu, and the provincial solicitor general, these things are always a challenge for all levels of government,“ Ballem said. “If you want any hard information, you need to talk to Jim Chu.â€

Chu was not made available for an interview.

“The Vancouver Police (Department) works closely with a variety of other police agencies, including Interpol,†VPD spokesman Const. Brian Montague said. “Unfortunately we would not be able to discuss specific cases or suspects.â€

Postmedia News reported that in his new book David Mulroney — a former senior adviser to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and ambassador to China from 2009 to 2012 — argues that Canada needs to take measures to block the influx of “hot money†pouring into real estate, and could go “much further†to co-operate with China in Operation Fox Hunt.

“The U.S. and Canada are key targets for (Operation Fox Hunt) investigators. Both places are popular with corrupt officials because both are highly desirable locations in which to house family members and educate children, and neither has an extradition treaty with China,†Mulroney wrote.

A report from Chinese wealth research firm Hurun says that 64 per cent of China’s millionaires have emigrated or plan to emigrate soon, to the U.S., Europe, Canada and Australia.

The financial news network CNBC reported that analysts believe an unstated reason for the flight of wealth from China is the Chinese Communist Party’s aggressive corruption crackdown.

“There is huge money laundering coming into Vancouver, but I don’t know who would tell you on the record, because that would be slitting their own throats,†one source said.

Cases of high-profile fugitives sent back to China from B.C. include Lai Changxing, the alleged mastermind of a billion-dollar smuggling operation in China, who was returned to Beijing in 2011, and Li Dongzhe, who turned himself over to Beijing officials in 2012 after hiding out in North Vancouver for six years.
 
Someone tell me again how buying a $350,000 500 sq ft condo in prime downtown Toronto (CBD, entertainment district, king west, etc.) And leasing it for 1550/monthly makes for a reasonable investment grade opportunity?
Even w/ 2.59% mortgage AND 20% down payment.
Maintenance fee $ 275/M,Tax 200/M, Ins. 40M.
 
Someone tell me again how buying a $350,000 500 sq ft condo in prime downtown Toronto (CBD, entertainment district, king west, etc.) And leasing it for 1550/monthly makes for a reasonable investment grade opportunity?
Even w/ 2.59% mortgage AND 20% down payment.
Maintenance fee $ 275/M,Tax 200/M, Ins. 40M.

Does't make sense to you and me but it may make sense to a foreign investor looking to park their money for 10 years.
 
This market seems to not make sense to the average middle class Canadian investor and that probably explaines why.
ive heard condos be referred to as commodities and it may be sinking in. Big money parking their $$.
Cash flow may not necessarily be high on the list of priorities. More like capital preservation in a stable economic environment.
little guy investor may have no business here..
 
This market seems to not make sense to the average middle class Canadian investor and that probably explaines why.
ive heard condos be referred to as commodities and it may be sinking in. Big money parking their $$.
Cash flow may not necessarily be high on the list of priorities. More like capital preservation in a stable economic environment.
little guy investor may have no business here..

If you look at the RE market in Toronto....property has appreciated at a significant rate. Regardless of the cashflow...if you felt there was a great chance your $300K stock or asset would sell for $500K in 10 years...wouldn't you buy it? I would...even at -$200 cash flow/month That's one way foreign investors may be looking at it.
 
If you look at the RE market in Toronto....property has appreciated at a significant rate. Regardless of the cashflow...if you felt there was a great chance your $300K stock or asset would sell for $500K in 10 years...wouldn't you buy it? I would...even at -$200 cash flow/month That's one way foreign investors may be looking at it.

Investing Rule number 1: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

You should really try to understand what forces have fuelled the unprecedented condo boom of the past 10 years.

Hint: the next 10 years wont be like the last 10 years.
 
Last edited:
Investing Rule number 1: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

You should really try to understand what forces have fuelled the unprecedented condo boom of the past 10 years.

Hint: the next 10 years wont be like the last 10 years.

True, but if you look 5 years back in this very thread, you can see people saying the next 5 years won't be like the past 5 years, and they were wrong. Many forces have fueled the condo boom, such as the green belt, influx of population and low interest rates, none of which are changing any time soon.
 
Investing Rule number 1: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

You should really try to understand what forces have fuelled the unprecedented condo boom of the past 10 years.

Hint: the next 10 years wont be like the last 10 years.

You're right...but the next 10 years may be even better. Who knows?
 

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