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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Just as we were discussing how difficult it is to find a fixer-upper in the sought-after neighborhoods, the Globe and Mail just recently published this article on how everyday buyers are outbidding the builders/flippers: http://m.theglobeandmail.com/life/h...tordevelopers/article21808990/?service=mobile

Also, interesting point about the global oil situation in light of OPEC's decision to maintain oil production. We are definitely going to see an effect to the Calgary economy which can most certainly have a big impact on Calgary real estate. I don't think it'll have a huge impact on Vancouver or Toronto however. If anything, it'll increase consumer spending.
 
Oil Price down = $CDN down = Inflation up = Interest rates up = House prices down

Also, don't underestimate what a slowdown in the oilsands could mean for national employment when you consider the budget pressures and spin-off industries it will impact. Canada's economy is not in a very good place right now unless the $CDN dropping boosts other exports (could manufacturing be revived? I doubt it because Mexico and Asia still eat our lunch on competitiveness no matter how low the $CDN goes).
 
Tick tock, it's debt o'clock.

The Bank of Canada has amped up its concerns, warning Wednesday that, while the economy is improving, “household imbalances, meanwhile, present a significant risk to financial stability.”

In one report, Equifax Canada said that “Canadian consumers have yet again tipped the scales setting a new benchmark of over $1.513-trillion in debt.”

Excluding mortgages, average debt held by Canadians has increased 2.7 per cent to $20,891.

The second report, from Royal Bank of Canada, put the overall figure, which includes mortgages, even higher at just under $1.8-trillion as of October.

Citing the latest central bank data suggesting household debt climbed 4.5 per cent from a year earlier, RBC economist Laura Cooper observed that “Canadian households’ insatiable appetite for credit was evident in October.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ow-owe-more-than-15-trillion/article21902175/

Nothing to see here...keep on spending...
 
Home prices in GTA surging, as yearly sales approach record

Condo sales led the way in November, surging 10.3 per cent as buyers shift their sights to highrises because the lack of supply of single-family homes continues to push prices skyward.

Demand from home buyers remains so strong, fuelled in large part by low interest rates, it appears likely sales for 2014 – which hit 88,462 transactions as of the end of November – will surpass the previous record of some 93,200 homes, set in 2007.

Demand from home buyers remains so strong, fuelled in large part by low interest rates, it appears likely sales for 2014 – which hit 88,462 transactions as of the end of November – will surpass the previous record of some 93,200 homes, set in 2007.

By: Susan Pigg Business Reporter, Published on Thu Dec 04 2014

The average sale price of a home in the GTA climbed 7.4 per cent in November from a year earlier to $577,936 – up 8.4 per cent just since January, according to figures released by the Toronto Real Estate Board Thursday.

Some 6,519 properties changed hands in November, up just 2.6 per cent from the 6,354 homes that sold in the same month of 2013 as the market headed into its usual holidays slowdown.

But condo sales led the way in November, surging 10.3 per cent as more buyers shift their sights to highrises because the lack of supply of single-family homes continues to push prices skyward, especially in the highly sought after 416 region where bidding wars still abound.

Sales of detached homes in the GTA were actually down 0.6 per cent over November of 2013, largely because of a lack of supply: New listings were down, overall, 5.3 per cent, year over year, and active listings – new and outstanding listings of all housing types on the MLS system – were down 8.5 per cent in November over a year ago as more folks just opt to stay put.

Demand from buyers, however, remains so strong, fuelled in large part by low interest rates, that it appears likely sales for all of 2014 – which hit 88,462 transactions as of the end of November – will surpass the previous sales record of some 93,200 homes, set in 2007.

That was before the Great Recession sent sales plummeting, although prices rebounded relatively quickly thanks to an unrelenting buyers’ market.

Price growth is expected to continue through 2015 in the face of that high demand relative to supply, said TREB’s director of market analysis, Jason Mercer.

Condos sales in the 416 region were up 11.2 per cent, compared to 8.1 per cent in the 905 region, according to TREB. Unit prices climbed 4.3 per cent as of the end of November, year over year, up 2 per cent in the City of Toronto to an average of $394,225.

The 905 regions saw the biggest gains of all housing types, with condo prices up almost 12 per cent to an average sale price of $310,220.

Detached house sales were down slightly in the 416 and 905 regions, but that’s largely seen as a reflection of lack of supply, which helped drive prices up 10.2 year over year. That brought the average detached price to $935,122 in the 416 region, up 9.4 per cent, and $672,825 in the 905 regions, up 10.6 per cent.

Semi-detached homes – the new go-to housing type for those determined to buy a house, rather than a condo – also saw sales drop in November.

But that 4.7 per cent decline – 2.2 per cent in the 416 region and 6.3 per cent in the 905 regions – is also indicative of lack of supply as prices were up 6.1 per cent in November overall.

That brought the average price of a semi in the City of Toronto to $667,178 (up 4.2 per cent) and $449,429 (up 7.1 per cent) in the 905 regions.

Townhouses saw average price growth of 8.1 per cent across the GTA, bringing the average sale price of a townhouse in Toronto to $503,349 (up 6.3 per cent) and $410,897 in the 905 regions (up 8.6 per cent.)
 
Home prices in GTA surging, as yearly sales approach record...

Everything is great, according to TREB (and other self-interested parties). Always a hot market, always a great time to buy or sell. :rolleyes:

Demand from buyers, however, remains so strong, fuelled in large part by low interest rates...

Based on the staggering amount of debt Canadians are apparently carrying, and the fact older folks are getting deeper and deeper into dire financial straits, it will be interesting to see what happens when rates rise.
 
The amount of condo supply coming online in the next 1-2 years is insane. It will be interesting to see how these units are absorbed. The rental market is already weakening and hardly any supply has hit occupancy.

Look at MLS for rentals at projects like Ice, L Tower, and 400 Adelaide. Tons of units available for rent already, with more coming as more and more units hit occupancy. It's going to be a renter's market for these new builds as there will be 10s of units available for rent and landlords anxious to make their mortgage payments.
 
The amount of condo supply coming online in the next 1-2 years is insane. It will be interesting to see how these units are absorbed. The rental market is already weakening and hardly any supply has hit occupancy.

Look at MLS for rentals at projects like Ice, L Tower, and 400 Adelaide. Tons of units available for rent already, with more coming as more and more units hit occupancy. It's going to be a renter's market for these new builds as there will be 10s of units available for rent and landlords anxious to make their mortgage payments.

Slow down Migos, these buildings are still heavily under construction with no amenities ready etc. Who really wants to move into these units in that condition unless they don't have a choice. The units do go at Ice, L Tower, and now 400 Adelaide. I've leased several even though warning clients that construction will be persistent for a long time because of how bad last winter delayed things.

Your an outsider looking in. If you've lived in a construction site you know it's not the best way of saving money for rent. Once these buildings completed they will occupy faster then you can imagine. I just laugh at doom Sayers when this is barely any new inventory into our city. I have clients coming from UK, Dubai, Australia, New York, you name it. Work is here and is here to stay. Demand is needed more then ever.
 
Slow down Migos, these buildings are still heavily under construction with no amenities ready etc. Who really wants to move into these units in that condition unless they don't have a choice. The units do go at Ice, L Tower, and now 400 Adelaide. I've leased several even though warning clients that construction will be persistent for a long time because of how bad last winter delayed things.

I'm sure the investors who are paying carrying costs each month can't wait to rent these units out. You think they want to take a cash flow hit for 6+ months while the amenities are finished?

My point is that when a building completes, there are literally hundreds of new units available for rent all at once. When there is a ton of identical product available from a variety of sellers, it's a good time to be a buyer.

Your an outsider looking in. If you've lived in a construction site you know it's not the best way of saving money for rent. Once these buildings completed they will occupy faster then you can imagine. I just laugh at doom Sayers when this is barely any new inventory into our city. I have clients coming from UK, Dubai, Australia, New York, you name it. Work is here and is here to stay. Demand is needed more then ever.

How do you explain condo rents dropping even before most of this supply hits the market? If the market is so tight, why aren't rents increasing?
 
I'm sure the investors who are paying carrying costs each month can't wait to rent these units out. You think they want to take a cash flow hit for 6+ months while the amenities are finished?

My point is that when a building completes, there are literally hundreds of new units available for rent all at once. When there is a ton of identical product available from a variety of sellers, it's a good time to be a buyer.



How do you explain condo rents dropping even before most of this supply hits the market? If the market is so tight, why aren't rents increasing?

Trust me these investors are not hurting. Some are just getting a little greedy and adding a lot of cushion to their carrying costs making the units stay longer on the market. Again, a lot of people are starting to wake up when paying $1800 for a one bedroom just does not make sense anymore. That's why condo sales up 10%. Your also hitting dead winter which is the slowest time for rent. Picks right back up after New Years and is so steady throughout spring and summer it's scary. Witnessed it all. Bidding wars for lease units up to 5 offers. Over asking. You name it.

Rents have not dropped in the core. In fact Etobicoke Parklawn area is now on par with Liberty Village/Downtown.
 
As a landlord, if you're near something appealing, you will always be able to get your place rented out. I have never had a tough time finding a renter or getting my price. Are some of the prices out there ridiculous? Yes. But what isn't? We live in a very expensive city. I do think condo prices will stabilize or even drop a bit. But mainly the 1 bedroom, small 1+1 variety. The new stock that will be coming on the market in the next couple of years will be of the small/tiny variety. Tiny 1 beds and even some tiny 2 beds. It's the bigger units that will hold value IMO.
 
As a landlord, if you're near something appealing, you will always be able to get your place rented out. I have never had a tough time finding a renter or getting my price. Are some of the prices out there ridiculous? Yes. But what isn't? We live in a very expensive city. I do think condo prices will stabilize or even drop a bit. But mainly the 1 bedroom, small 1+1 variety. The new stock that will be coming on the market in the next couple of years will be of the small/tiny variety. Tiny 1 beds and even some tiny 2 beds. It's the bigger units that will hold value IMO.

Couldn't agree more. Big demand in the coming years for 800 Sq Ft+ Units!
 
As a landlord, if you're near something appealing, you will always be able to get your place rented out. I have never had a tough time finding a renter or getting my price. Are some of the prices out there ridiculous? Yes. But what isn't? We live in a very expensive city.

That's because the condo market is currently very tight. That may change with all of this supply coming online. What you're saying is the equivalent of saying housing will always go up in price because that's what's happened over the past 20 years.

It's as if people don't realize there are two sides to the housing market. There is demand, which most of us agree is very strong and shows little signs of slowing given our immigration policies. However, there is also supply. At some level of housing starts, supply can and will outpace even a very strong demand for housing. That is what I predict is going to happen to the condo market over the next couple years.
 
Trust me these investors are not hurting. Some are just getting a little greedy and adding a lot of cushion to their carrying costs making the units stay longer on the market. Again, a lot of people are starting to wake up when paying $1800 for a one bedroom just does not make sense anymore. That's why condo sales up 10%. Your also hitting dead winter which is the slowest time for rent. Picks right back up after New Years and is so steady throughout spring and summer it's scary. Witnessed it all. Bidding wars for lease units up to 5 offers. Over asking. You name it.

Rents have not dropped in the core. In fact Etobicoke Parklawn area is now on par with Liberty Village/Downtown.

How could you not "hurt" if you're bringing in no rent and paying thousands in costs?

Most rent/buy calculators in Toronto support renting as a superior financial option for the end-user. Hence, rent prices are already attractive vs buying.
 

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