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Baby, we got a bubble!?

interested said:
From todays Star:



Condo developers start 2014 with record number of launches.

Downtown sees biggest demand remains for units.


By: Susan Pigg Business Reporter, Published on Wed Apr 09 2014

Developers are so optimistic that confidence has returned to the condo market, they’ve launched sales of a record number of new units — more than 2,700 — in January and February alone.
And more are planned, with new project launches scheduled unusually late, into May, as builders see a surge of pent-up demand after the downturn of the last two years, especially for condos close to the Toronto core.


Those 2,721 new units are in eight projects, according to figures from research firm RealNet Canada, which will release March launch numbers later this month. That exceeds the 2,394 units in nine projects launched in January and February of 2011, the record year for condo sales.


The total is also up significantly from the 1,261 unit sales launched in the first two months of 2012, and the 1,873 units that went to market in the same period of 2013. That’s when fears of a condo crash led to a dramatic slump in sales and flagging investor interest.


“People have been waiting two years on the sidelines, anticipating that something is going to go wrong, but the market isn’t slowing,†says Riz Dhanji, vice president of sales and marketing at Canderel Residential.


It recently launched sales of its new, 600-unit YC Condos project at Yonge and College Sts. to “incredible†interest, especially for bigger units starting at 1,000 square feet as alternatives to pricey houses, says Dhanji.


“It’s really just an indicator of what a great place we live in and the factors that are driving the condominium industry in this city,†says Andrew Hoffman, president of CentreCourt Developments.


CentreCourt launched sales for its newest project, the 220-unit Core at Shuter and Church Sts., in January and sold out within a month.


“The most successful launches have been in close proximity to the subway and the downtown,†says Hoffman. “This year is going to be, to some degree, a makeup for what wasn’t launched in 2013.â€Developers have learned their lessons from the downturn, says George Carras, president of market research firm RealNet Canada: Layout and design have become more important than ever, especially as suite sizes continue to shrink.


They now average about 784 square feet in new launches. That’s some 120 square feet — the equivalent of a bedroom — less than units that sold just five years ago, according to RealNet.


Pricing remains highly competitive and many new launches so far in 2014 have been priced below neighbouring new condo projects still actively marketing unsold units, said Carras.


The index price per square foot of a new condo was $559 in February, up just slightly from $539 a year ago. (The index price factors out high-end condos that can skew average prices.)
“The development community, as a whole, recognizes that the condo market is normalizing and we’re seeing new projects coming down in size from the mega projects†that have overtaken the market the last few years, says development consultant Barry Lyon.


“The new sweet spot in the GTA seems to be projects under 300 units. They tend to sell quicker and attract more end users†than investors who plan to rent the units out.
There is no doubt that the condo market remains investor driver, and that’s likely to continue as long as rental vacancy rates, now at about 1.7 per cent, remain below 3 per cent, making it easy to find tenants, says Lyon.


“The big story this year is that we are certainly in a buyers’ market. It will be the year of the incentives†as developers with projects already in the works try to clear a record inventory of 23,327 unsold units.


Some 13,212 of those unsold units have yet to be started, another 8,824 are under construction and just 1,291 are actually built, according to RealNet.


Already some “interesting shifts†are playing out in the condo market, says Lyon. More midrise buildings and stacked townhouses are in the works, in an effort to cater to condo dwellers looking to start families but stay in the city. There are also more two bedroom units.


The numbers alone tell the story of Toronto’s dramatic shift skyward, largely just over the last decade, in the wake of Ontario’s intensification policies, he added. As of October, there were 305,241 condos across the GTA. A further 250,000 are in the planning stages. Some 60,000 are under construction.


“It’s a healthy sign that the market hasn’t gone south, but basically what you’re seeing now is developers trying to catch the last of the big wave,†says Lyon.


Launches are likely to ease as the year progresses, he notes. He’s anticipating about 70 to 80 new projects for 2014, down from 101 in 2013.
Click to expand...

Not a word about actual new condo sales. Just a fluffy marketing piece on Canderel and Hoffman each of which surely bought full page ads for their projects.
 
I agree. It would be nice if Mr. Condo Man would stop spamming his website in order to feed condo horny newbies into buying with him so that he can afford that next $5,000 oil change for his Maybach.

Low mortgage rates mean more and more people are going to dive into home ownership when they can't afford it. It's a sad state of affairs and will ultimately end terribly for many. But of course, the vultures don't care.
 
CN Tower said:
Not a word about actual new condo sales. Just a fluffy marketing piece on Canderel and Hoffman each of which surely bought full page ads for their projects.
Click to expand...

True they don't talk about actual sales but there are some references which if to believe suggest at least some projects are selling:

Core condos sold out in a month. They say YC had incredible interest and I have heard indirectly that they sold about 90% of it. Don't have hard numbers but at least some projects are going.
 
cruzin4u said:
I agree. It would be nice if Mr. Condo Man would stop spamming his website in order to feed condo horny newbies into buying with him so that he can afford that next $5,000 oil change for his Maybach.

LOL. I have a Flying Spur too :)

But seriously I too invest in the market I sell. You should consider to have an open mind and invest too if u can.........
Click to expand...
 
Mods - lets take a percentage of ad income to get CN some much needed help!

And a new dictionary so he can learn some new words =)
 
Mike, there was a post a while back from someone that said there seems to be a lot of negative and sore people here I guess because they are not in the market and hoping for a big drop. It went something like that.

I say to those people, its never too late folks if you can get in, not with me with whoever, but it just doesn't make sense to rent every month and look back year after year and have no equity. I meet people all the time that say they should have this or should have that but its never too late. I remember when bachelors at Neptune at Bathurst and Lakeshore were $119900 in 2007, now they are around $200,000 to $225000.

Investors who have been in the market or who don't try and time it simply rent out their unit and over time do well. The rental market has spiked because of selling in 2012 thx to finance minister and the rest of them, now year over year higher and for 2 yrs renters are not only out of money on rent but equity if they tried to time the market and went to rent.

Just my opinion, there seems to be a lot of narrow minded negative comments, its up to you folks, invest and own or rent. Make things happen if you want too.

I want to share something with you all. I came from the street, I had nothing, I don't have a PHD or any university, I wish I did but neither I or parents could help. But I never gave up and fell many times, but got back up and tried again and again.

I never once said oh look at that guy in the $450000 car and trashed him or her, I said to myself .......... I wonder what they are doing and how I can learn from them.

Just sharing.......
 
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George, that is wonderful that you are successful. I have no issues with successful people, in particular self-made wealth. I am not negative because I cannot afford a $450,000 car (nor would I ever buy a car that expensive (I am more of an Aston Martin type of guy - but that's just me). I have done well on some of my real estate acquisitions, so I know there is money to be made in the market place (esp. if you time it well, like you said). I just think there are a lot of vultures out there preying on desperate people - that is not to say YOU are one and I understand it's not fair to paint everyone with the same brush.
 
Condo George said:
I want to share something with you all. I came from the street, I had nothing, I don't have a PHD or any university,
Click to expand...

Shocking.

I'm happy for your great, if not outrageously conspicuous, success George.

You make a litany of assumptions concerning people's individual financial status and the composition of their assets without merit or any evidence.

We are here, most of us, for a higher level discussion on the current state of the Toronto housing market. We are not here for cheerleading or distorted reports from self-interested parties.

Back to topic, 2 purportedly successful condo launches does not establish any kind of turnaround. I am very curious what the Urbanantion Q1 2014 numbers present when they become available. I'd be very surprised if they're materially higher than any of the last 3 years.

Got me?
 
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cruzin4u said:
urban_dreamer is mentioning you TorontoMike$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

TAX LOSS SELLING FOR TORONTO CONDOS

http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/blog/tax-loss-selling-for-toronto-condos-an-option/
Click to expand...

I agree with the article. There are people that will lose a lot money in Trump Tower, Shangri La, Cinema Tower Condos, Ice Condos and a few more I know of. This is mainly due to investors that don't do any research and/or rely on their agents that do not give good advice. Rather telling their clients that everything you buy will "make you money"

My best guess is the owners of ICE 2 mid-high floors will lose as they paid over $800 per foot to be on those floors. ICE 1 on the lower floors started at $560-$575 per foot which is well below the current resale prices (assignments here are selling ~$700 per foot on the ground) and anyone that bought in ICE 1 is making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. I suspect ICE 2 owners that find themselves in a breakeven/losing position may just rent their units and go into final closing. Mainly because purchasers have 25% down, low interest rates, and the units still cover expenses during the occupancy period.

It pays to have a strong agent that provides excellent guidence, knows the market (and ahead of it) and does not just sell anything - Thanks CondoGeorge
 
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