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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Hi daveto.
welcome back.

Interestingly in the National Post this morning on line there is an article about the HELOC loans in the US coming home to roost shortly. These are interest only often in the first 10 years and the payments may "triple" as people have to pay interest and loans. Surely if there is another meltdown that starts in the US it will affect us here in Canada and we are not as well insulated this time to withstand it this time around.

http://business.financialpost.com/2...rs-miss-payments-on-housing-bubble-era-loans/

On the other hand from a realtor who sent me this:

Home Sales up 19% and Condo rentals increase 25% in a year in the GTA
GTA home sales rise in October: Study
GTA home sales remained strong in October, with sales up more than 19 per cent over the same period last year and prices up more than 7 per cent, according to figures released by the Toronto Real Estate Board Wednesday.
The average sale price of a home hit $539,058 last month, up from $502,127 in October of 2012. The composite benchmark — which factors out extremes in the market, such as a spike in high-end home sales — was up 4.5 per cent year over year, says TREB.
That growth is expected to continue through 2014, because the inventory of homes being listed for sale remains unusually low, along with interest rates, says Jason Mercer, the real estate board’s senior manager of market analysis.
“The GTA home ownership market has been broadly characterized by a rebound in sales since the summer. Market conditions have been tighter in some market segments more so than others,” says Dianne Usher, president of the board.
“Ground-oriented homes listed for below one million dollars in some areas of the GTA have been especially popular with buyers, while listings for these home types have been constrained (I would read this as saying they are not moving).”
Some 8,000 home changed hands in October, up from 6,713 a year ago when the market was still feeling the dampening effects of tougher mortgage lending rules introduced in July, 2012 by federal Housing Minister Jim Flaherty in an effort to cool a market that shows no signs of letting up.
The average sale price of a house in the 416 region was $593,807 in October, up from $538,120 a year ago. The average was $502,748 in the 905, up from $478,313, according to the TREB figures.
The most in-demand sector of the market — detached homes — saw price gains in the Toronto region of 12.4 per cent year over year, with the average sale price in October hitting $873,509.
Prices in the 905 for a detached were up 6.3 per cent over a year ago to an average of $607,849.
Sales of detached homes were up 23.6 per cent and 15.4 per cent respectively in the 416 and 905 regions.
Semi-detached sales were actually down 2.4 per cent in the 416 region while up 15.5 per cent in the 905 area, according to TREB’s numbers, but prices were up 11.7 per cent in the 416 and 6.7 per cent in the 905.
The average sale price of a semi-detached was $642,112 in Toronto and $417,124 in the suburbs in October.
Townhouse sales were up 26.3 per cent in Toronto and 20.7 per cent in the regions, with average sale prices coming in at $473,240 and $378,688 respectively.
Resale condo sales also remained unusually healthy for a market that, just over a year ago, was thought to be at significant risk of a major downturn: Sales were up 20.4 per cent in Toronto and a whopping 35.6 per cent in the 905 regions.
The average sales price was up 7.2 per cent in Toronto in October, year over year, to $384,441 and up 4.3 per cent in the 905 region to $295,166.
Even the new condo market appears to be holding up unexpectedly well as sales return to more historic norms from the sky-high peak of the condo boom in 2011, says a third-quarter report on the market from condo research firm Urbanation, released Wednesday.
Developers are continuing to hold back on new launches and focus on selling off unsold inventory, which dropped for the first time in a year, to 18,814 units, it notes.
Just 11 new condo apartment projects with 2,557 apartments, most of them in the high-demand City of Toronto, launched in the third quarter of this year.
As a result of that pullback in new building, overall new condo sales for 2013 are expected to come in at just 13,000 units.
That’s less than half the 28,190 condo apartments sold in 2011 and down from almost 18,000 new units sold last year, says Urbanation.
The number of new condo suites sold in the third quarter of 2013 was down 8 per cent, year over year, the smallest decline in sales levels seen in over a year, it notes.
Sales in the downtown core, however, remain quite healthy, up 22 per cent year over year.
The average index sale price for new condos came in 2 per cent higher than the same period a year ago, at about $540 per square foot.




Condo rentals in the GTA increase 25% in a year
Condominium rentals are proving to be an increasingly popular option for Greater Toronto Area residents.
The Greater Toronto Area REALTORS reported in mid-October that 6,541 condos were rented in the third quarter of 2013 which has increased a remarkable 25 per cent from the same time period in 2012.
Condo owners were also able to charge more with third-quarter average rent increasing for one-bedroom and two-bedroom condo apartments by 1.8 and 3.6, respectively, over the course of the year. (See image of 300 Front St. W. a condo rental listed by DEL Condominium Rentals.

In a statement, Toronto Real Estate Board president Dianne Usher also noted nearly one-third of GTA households now rent their home.
“Given that we have experienced sustained population growth in the region, it makes sense that rental transactions have been increasing as well,” she said.
Jason Mercer, the senior manager of market analysis for TREB, said increased competition for available rental units in the third quarter is driving year-over-year growth.


Condo sales up in third quarter of 2013
Perhaps surprisingly, the GTA also experienced strong condominium sales with 5,307 sold in Q3 2013, up 18 per cent from 4,498 in the third quarter of 2012.
Within the City of Toronto proper, which accounted for 72 per cent of condo apartment transactions, sales jumped by 19.5 per cent according to a GTA REALTORS report.
“The Echo Generation wants to live where they work and play,” Usher said in her statement. “Despite the onset of stricter lending guidelines, buyers have found that home ownership remains affordable.”
Among other moves, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty had introduced measures in 2012 to reduce the length of mortgages from 30 to 25 years and to lower the amount consumers could borrow to refinance their homes.
The minister said he introduced the measures partly due to concern over a potential housing bubble and what he called the over-building of condos.
The average selling price for condos in Q3 2013 still rose to $340,069, up nearly two per cent compared to an average of $333,846 in the third quarter of 2012.
At the same time, listings decreased and if the trend continues, competition for condos could rise along with prices.
 
A surprising statement from the IMF today. They wouldn't make this sort of recommendation casually, and I would expect they would have disclosed this and discussed with Flaherty/etc prior to publishing.

http://business.financialpost.com/2...tawa-to-quit-insuring-mortgages-through-cmhc/

"The International Monetary Fund says Ottawa should consider phasing out insuring home mortgages through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp."
...

"The IMF concedes that the current system has its advantages for stability. But it says it also exposes the government, or taxpayers, to financial system risks and might distort the market as a whole in favour of mortgages over more productive uses of capital. Meanwhile, the IMF cautions that if any structural changes are made, they should be gradual to avoid unintended consequences."
 
A surprising statement from the IMF today. They wouldn't make this sort of recommendation casually, and I would expect they would have disclosed this and discussed with Flaherty/etc prior to publishing.

http://business.financialpost.com/2...tawa-to-quit-insuring-mortgages-through-cmhc/

"The International Monetary Fund says Ottawa should consider phasing out insuring home mortgages through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp."
...

"The IMF concedes that the current system has its advantages for stability. But it says it also exposes the government, or taxpayers, to financial system risks and might distort the market as a whole in favour of mortgages over more productive uses of capital. Meanwhile, the IMF cautions that if any structural changes are made, they should be gradual to avoid unintended consequences."




I would take this with a bit of a grain of salt. Clearly with Freddie Mac and Fanny May there were problems but it is an ideological question rather than an economic one. In North America, home ownership has been promoted by various governments. Less so in Europe though I believe some do.

I agree that CMHC should not be in the business of taking loans off the books of banks, especially for anything that is not a starter home. But philisophically, if the government believes home ownership is a good thing, and generally something the populations in North America seem to want, then helping with CMHC insured mortgages on a starter property would be reasonable. I feel however there should be limits on how much CMHC insures so the tax payer base is protected.
 
Bank of England pulls back on support for home loans


By Jason Douglas and Geoffrey T. Smith

LONDON — The Bank of England said Thursday it plans to cut its support for mortgage lending in the U.K. and nudge banks towards lending more to small businesses.

The move is a response to mounting concern that a rapid pickup in housing market activity in Britain could ultimately turn sour, hurting banks and borrowers, as well as longstanding worries that small firms are being starved of credit, hindering economic recovery.

It is also an example of the increasing willingness of central banks across the globe to deploy tailored policies to steer their economies, rather than relying solely on official interest rates.

The BOE said in its twice-yearly financial stability report that although there is little evidence that quickening activity in Britain’s housing market poses an immediate threat to financial stability, “risks may grow if stronger activity is accompanied by further substantial and rapid increases in house prices and a further buildup in household indebtedness.”

The central bank said property has played “a central role” in many previous economic and financial crises. In the U.K., real estate accounts for 70% of non-financial assets.

House prices in the U.K. have risen rapidly in recent months, prompting fears over the emergence of a new bubble in prices. A government mortgage-support program for would-be homebuyers called Help-to-Buy has driven an increase in mortgage lending, including a rise in the number of riskier loans on offer that require only a small downpayment.

The BOE said that in response to the pickup in housing-market activity and an ongoing dearth in small-business lending it has decided to overhaul its flagship Funding-for-Lending Scheme, or FLS, which offers banks cheap cash provided they use it to dish out loans to households and businesses.

Banks drawing on the FLS will from January no longer benefit from reduced capital requirements on new mortgage loans, the BOE said. Capital relief will continue for small business loans, however. Banks engaged in small business lending will also pay a smaller flat-rate fee of just 0.25% to use the FLS and will be able to draw more cash from the facility, the BOE added.

The changes were agreed with Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.

“Now the housing market is starting to pick up, it is right that we focus the scheme’s firepower on small businesses,” Osborne said. BOE Gov. Mark Carney said extra support for mortgage lending is “no longer needed.”


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-england-pulls-back-on-support-for-home-loans-2013-11-28


Gee, Mark Carney ... what were you doing in Canada a few years ago ?!?
he couldn't use his influence and recommend the same thing with CMHC / fed gov't here?
 
I thought this was interesting. I've never heard of this before:

"Toronto condo developer Barry Fenton, CEO of Lanterra Developments, says the industry remains confident in the condo rental market.

For one thing, he noted that he and many other developers are now offering investors rental guarantees when they buy units in buildings that haven’t been built. At the Britt condos, Lanterra sold 100 units to investors with a guarantee that they’d obtain more than $3 per square foot in rent for two years, or Lanterra will pay it, Mr. Fenton said. “We’re not here to lose money,” he said."

From http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ort-shows/article15652306/#dashboard/follows/
 
I thought this was interesting. I've never heard of this before:

"Toronto condo developer Barry Fenton, CEO of Lanterra Developments, says the industry remains confident in the condo rental market.

For one thing, he noted that he and many other developers are now offering investors rental guarantees when they buy units in buildings that haven’t been built. At the Britt condos, Lanterra sold 100 units to investors with a guarantee that they’d obtain more than $3 per square foot in rent for two years, or Lanterra will pay it, Mr. Fenton said. “We’re not here to lose money,” he said."

From http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ort-shows/article15652306/#dashboard/follows/

Think about it...that is not a lot of money. If rents are now $3 (500 sq.ft. will get at least $1500 and probably $1600/month in the present market) and let say they go down to $2.50. That is 50 cents x 500 sq.ft. or $250 x24 months or$6K. Assuming they are selling at $700/sq.ft. or $350K for 500 sq.ft. they are guaranteeing 6K/350K or 1.7%. Incidentally, at $2.50/sq.ft. for a 1 bedroom of 500 sq.ft. that is $1250 rent/month which currently rents out at closer to $1600.
My point is this in no way should make any investor buy or not buy. Another way to look at it is that $6K on a $350K condo means $344K/500 sq.ft. or $688/sq.ft....hardly a huge drop.

I would suggest that it is unlikely that rents even if they drop will go down to $1250 from $1600 (21% drop). That is a major drop.

Here is from the internet:

THE BRITT CONDOS
REGISTER BELOW FOR VIP ACCESS TO PRICE LIST & FLOOR PLANS

SPECIAL PROMOTIONS FOR THIS MONTH:
-PODIUM SUITES : 6% CASH BACK
-TOWER SUITES : 3% CASH BACK
-FREE ASSIGNMENT FEE
-EXTENDED DEPOSIT
-2 YEARS RENTAL GUARANTEE ON SELECTED SUITES ($1425 TO $2250 PER MONTH)

In this context, the 1.7% guarantee assuming prices would not drop for rents more than 20+% is not a significant expense and as said before the 1.7% I am sure is more than compensated for by the asking price.
 
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Think about it...that is not a lot of money. If rents are now $3 (500 sq.ft. will get at least $1500 and probably $1600/month in the present market) and let say they go down to $2.50. That is 50 cents x 500 sq.ft. or $250 x24 months or$6K. Assuming they are selling at $700/sq.ft. or $350K for 500 sq.ft. they are guaranteeing 6K/350K or 1.7%. Incidentally, at $2.50/sq.ft. for a 1 bedroom of 500 sq.ft. that is $1250 rent/month which currently rents out at closer to $1600.
My point is this in no way should make any investor buy or not buy. Another way to look at it is that $6K on a $350K condo means $344K/500 sq.ft. or $688/sq.ft....hardly a huge drop.

I would suggest that it is unlikely that rents even if they drop will go down to $1250 from $1600 (21% drop). That is a major drop.

Here is from the internet:

THE BRITT CONDOS
REGISTER BELOW FOR VIP ACCESS TO PRICE LIST & FLOOR PLANS

SPECIAL PROMOTIONS FOR THIS MONTH:
-PODIUM SUITES : 6% CASH BACK
-TOWER SUITES : 3% CASH BACK
-FREE ASSIGNMENT FEE
-EXTENDED DEPOSIT
-2 YEARS RENTAL GUARANTEE ON SELECTED SUITES ($1425 TO $2250 PER MONTH)

In this context, the 1.7% guarantee assuming prices would not drop for rents more than 20+% is not a significant expense and as said before the 1.7% I am sure is more than compensated for by the asking price.

1. It's a revenue guarantee, not a net income guarantee so if costs of up you're screwed
2. It's only for 2 years so effectively it's equivalent to offering a contingent discount on the purchase price


Anyone who falls for these used car sales tactics deserves to lose money. This development scheme was ill conceived from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised to see it completely shelved and the building reverted to student rental.
 
1. It's a revenue guarantee, not a net income guarantee so if costs of up you're screwed
2. It's only for 2 years so effectively it's equivalent to offering a contingent discount on the purchase price


Anyone who falls for these used car sales tactics deserves to lose money. This development scheme was ill conceived from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised to see it completely shelved and the building reverted to student rental.

I would not quite be that harsh. However you are probably right that the developer is looking at the 1.7% I quoted as just part of his marketing budget.
I was under the impression the building was not selling that badly. With Ryerson nearby, I suspect the student rental idea will apply to a lot of condos near Ryserson....though I can't see the Britt being any more likely than other nearby condos.
 
Wow...and on it goes.

TORONTO, December 4, 2013 -- Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,391 residential sales through the TorontoMLS system in November, representing a 13.9 per cent increase over the sales result for November 2012. Over the same period, new listings on TorontoMLS were down by 4.4 per cent and month-end active listings were down by 12.1 per cent.

“Growth in sales was strong for most home types in the Greater Toronto Area. Sales growth was led by the single-detached market segment followed by condominium apartments. Together, singles and condos accounted for almost three-quarters of total GTA transactions,†said Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher.

“With National Housing Day having just passed, housing affordability is top of mind in the GTA and indeed nationally. Despite strong price growth and an uptick in borrowing costs this year, monthly mortgage payments on the average priced home remain affordable for a household earning the average GTA income,†continued Ms. Usher.

The average selling price for November 2013 TorontoMLS transactions was $538,881 – up by 11.3 per cent in comparison to the average of $484,208 reported for November 2012. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 5.7 per cent over the same period.

“Whether we consider the average TorontoMLS selling price or the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark, annual home price growth remained well-above the rate of inflation in November. This makes sense given the fact that competition between buyers increased last month. Transactions were up strongly year-over-year while the number of homes available for sale was down,†said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...ket_updates/news2013/nr_market_watch_1113.htm

Average selling price in the 416 $590,366 up 14.3% y/y Sales up 13%

Average selling price of a condo in the 416 $385,968 up 10% y/y Sales up 12.7%
 
If TREB uses unadjusted numbers from the previous month and compares it to adjusted numbers from the year before, why would anyone pay attention (not taking about you, klb86 - I'm talking about media outlets)? The numbers are hopelessly inaccurate and will always show a more rosy picture than the reality that adjusted #'s vs adjusted #'s (year over year) would show.
 
Wouldn't it be nice if the real estate numbers were independently monitored and verified by an outside party? Trusting TREB to tell the truth about RE is like taking Mayor Ford's word that he is the greatest mayor this city has ever seen.
 
Just curious as to how statistical reports are administered in other industries, like automotive or insurance. Who is policing and what is preventing those organizations from padding their numbers too?
 
Just curious as to how statistical reports are administered in other industries, like automotive or insurance. Who is policing and what is preventing those organizations from padding their numbers too?

The only numbers the gov't cares about are the ones WE report as income for taxation purposes. Mess with those numbers and see how fast the hammer falls. Everyone else gets a pass until they either get caught or make a mistake, but I'm starting to doubt even that in light of duplicate (sometimes even triplicate) MLS listings for one property, sketchy "adjusted" numbers, and other shenanigans.
 
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