suzieq
New Member
thats great news! congrats. can i ask what area you are in exactly and is it a 1 or 2 bedroom? parking?
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
Congratulations 
On the flip side, if you don't mind me asking, where are you moving? Are you staying in the downtown? As a buyer, were you also in a multiple bid situation?
On the flip side, if you don't mind me asking, where are you moving? Are you staying in the downtown? As a buyer, were you also in a multiple bid situation?
TheKingEast
Senior Member
Units in that Thompson building do not stay on the market long.
Dan_550
New Member
Thanks, Guys! We're in the Thompson Hotel - on the residential side. 1 bedroom + parking, facing north (so it's starting to get dusty from the Thompson Residences excavation), loved the hood, but we needed more space.
Pink Lucy - we had already purchased an old row house in Leslieville about 2 weeks ago - and that was a crazy scene! We were one of 5 offers on the property, and came out with it after a long evening!
Personally, based on these recent experiences, I still think the market for 'homes' (detached, semi's, rows, etc) is stronger than for condos, but not by a whole lot.
Pink Lucy - we had already purchased an old row house in Leslieville about 2 weeks ago - and that was a crazy scene! We were one of 5 offers on the property, and came out with it after a long evening!
Personally, based on these recent experiences, I still think the market for 'homes' (detached, semi's, rows, etc) is stronger than for condos, but not by a whole lot.
James
Senior Member
Congrats on the purchase and the sale! It's always tricky when buying first and then needing to sell, especially in this market that has turned. As I've mentioned before, the SFH market is still relatively strong. There's certainly been a softening and a correction happening but it's not as significant as many were expecting. I believe the demand for solid detached or semis in the city are going to remain strong for a while. Since price escalation for SFHs have been so dramatic the last few years, even a 10% price reduction will not be enough of a catalyst to burst this "bubble." There are still a good number of SFHs that are selling for over asking in this market, while the majority of condos are selling at or slightly below asking.
Eug
Senior Member
July Teranet numbers are out. For Toronto:
Jan-2011 126.370
Feb-2011 126.370
Mar-2011 126.820
Apr-2011 127.700
May-2011 129.800
Jun-2011 132.440
Jul-2011 134.860
Aug-2011 137.010
Sep-2011 137.740
Oct-2011 138.810
Nov-2011 138.550
Dec-2011 138.150
Jan-2012 138.910
Feb-2012 138.980
Mar-2012 139.510
Apr-2012 140.660
May-2012 142.680
Jun-2012 145.030
Jul-2012 147.320 (+9.2% yoy)
Jan-2011 126.370
Feb-2011 126.370
Mar-2011 126.820
Apr-2011 127.700
May-2011 129.800
Jun-2011 132.440
Jul-2011 134.860
Aug-2011 137.010
Sep-2011 137.740
Oct-2011 138.810
Nov-2011 138.550
Dec-2011 138.150
Jan-2012 138.910
Feb-2012 138.980
Mar-2012 139.510
Apr-2012 140.660
May-2012 142.680
Jun-2012 145.030
Jul-2012 147.320 (+9.2% yoy)
caehlan
New Member
Eug, what do those numbers represent?
Eug
Senior Member
I've been posting those numbers periodically throughout this thread, but I guess you haven't been in this thread much before.
They're the Teranet numbers that track resale prices of homes that have had two sales during a period of time. Using this data they derive an index of prices, with June 2005 representing the arbitrary standardization at 100.
So, an index of 147.32 for July 2012 in Toronto means that prices are 47% higher than they were in June 2005. The index of 134.86 for July 2011 means that July 2011 was 35% higher than June 2005, and July 2012 is 9.2% higher than July 2011.
They're the Teranet numbers that track resale prices of homes that have had two sales during a period of time. Using this data they derive an index of prices, with June 2005 representing the arbitrary standardization at 100.
So, an index of 147.32 for July 2012 in Toronto means that prices are 47% higher than they were in June 2005. The index of 134.86 for July 2011 means that July 2011 was 35% higher than June 2005, and July 2012 is 9.2% higher than July 2011.
Eug
Senior Member
P.S. If one were to extrapolate the growth curve from the late 90s, one might expect the prices in July 2012 to be around 8-10% less, or roughly at about summer 2011 prices.
One might argue that the growth curve from the late 90s is already too fast, but I'm ignoring that for the moment.
Assuming this extrapolation is in the right ballpark, then one might expect pricing to fall somewhere between 5-15%, unless they simply stall over a number of years, allowing inflation to catch up. Or they could fall more than 15% because often times the market overreacts.
One might argue that the growth curve from the late 90s is already too fast, but I'm ignoring that for the moment.
Assuming this extrapolation is in the right ballpark, then one might expect pricing to fall somewhere between 5-15%, unless they simply stall over a number of years, allowing inflation to catch up. Or they could fall more than 15% because often times the market overreacts.
caehlan
New Member
I asked because I am not certain you actually know what your posting. In fact, I would argue most people could not explain the HPI calculation. Take a read through their methodology http://housepriceindex.ca/documents/MethodologyEN.pdf
You have to have a house that has sold twice since 2005. It ignores if the price increase is due to renovations. It's obsessed with identifying and removing "statistical outliers" which means up to 49% of property sales could be excluded. The whole number appears to be designed to smooth out any significant variations month to month... which just isn't how the real world works.
HPI is not another data point, it's a distraction.
You have to have a house that has sold twice since 2005. It ignores if the price increase is due to renovations. It's obsessed with identifying and removing "statistical outliers" which means up to 49% of property sales could be excluded. The whole number appears to be designed to smooth out any significant variations month to month... which just isn't how the real world works.
HPI is not another data point, it's a distraction.
Eug
Senior Member
So you weren't even asking a honest question then? In any case the methodology has been discussed before, so nothing you've stated should be new to us... except for maybe your very harsh criticism of it. I personally view it at just another way of looking at home sales in Toronto.
drewp
Active Member
Hey Dan my clients were going to offer on that unit. It is a PH unit right? It was priced right on. Congrats on the quick sale.
And yes the rental market is very strong. I have seen a 5-10% increase since the beginning of the year.
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KA1
Senior Member
TheSpeculator
New Member
Re: Toronto Star Article
Condo Prices rising next year?
How is that possible if Senior Bank economists have been stating it will drop 10-30%. Most analysts and many others on this board have been regurgitating this price drop since 2008.
What I do know is every condo I put up for rent is usually rented out on my first viewing since 2004. Since 2009, many times I would have 10 people interested for 1 vacant rental unit. If that remains the case, many of these frustrated renters will shift towards buying and keep prices high.
Condo Prices rising next year?
How is that possible if Senior Bank economists have been stating it will drop 10-30%. Most analysts and many others on this board have been regurgitating this price drop since 2008.
What I do know is every condo I put up for rent is usually rented out on my first viewing since 2004. Since 2009, many times I would have 10 people interested for 1 vacant rental unit. If that remains the case, many of these frustrated renters will shift towards buying and keep prices high.
