|
|
|
Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
neubilder
Banned
On the West Coast the boom of the late 80's early 90's ended with a whimper in 1992, at which point things took a slight dip of +/-10% and then flat-lined for almost a decade. Vancouver had a few spurts but nothing remarkable, and Victoria remained dead flat. In terms of dollar values there was little price change but after factoring in inflation this translated into significant depreciation over time.
Then in 2002-03 things took off like wildfire.
Then in 2002-03 things took off like wildfire.
Last edited:
avenirv
New Member
switzerland ?
KA1
Senior Member
James
Senior Member
...which is somewhat in line with the trend in New York. Slight decrease followed by a plateauing for a number of years before rising up again.
neubilder
Banned
Switzerland is an anomaly. Last time I checked (a couple of years ago) it was the one European (not Euro) country that had experienced no significant appreciation whilst the rest of the continent was escalating out of control.
interested
Senior Member
I have a question. Where you saying 25%+ total damage from 18-24 months ago because that would imply over 30% from present value or are you saying total damage of 25% from the peak value achieved now?
Either way it is quite dramatic.
Eug
Senior Member
This is a key question.
July 2010: $420482
July 2012: $476947 (+13.4%)
0.75% 2010: $315362
$476947 --> $315362 = 33.9% drop.
In other words, 2012 prices are now over 50% higher than what what prices would be at 75% of 2010 levels.
interested
Senior Member
KA1
Senior Member
That would mean a 'free' coffee for me. Perhaps, Redfirm might wish to start saving for the eventuality
interested
Senior Member
That would mean a 'free' coffee for me. Perhaps, Redfirm might wish to start saving for the eventuality
Actually, I believe the partial quote from me may be leading to a wrong conclusion. My suggesting downtown condos would not be down quite as much was related to the amount of price escalation from 2010 to 2012 from Eug's figures. I believe in fact that SFH's at least in central Toronto will not decline by as much as condos despite the fact that SFH's have increased more. I state this as I believe the SFH market at least in central Toronto is less at risk than condos in general in the core and higher end condos in particular in the core due to the numbers coming on board and that condos (at least presale) have been pricing in "future" escalation for 3-4 years down the road which at this point in time is suspect.
daveto
Active Member
Eug, not to nitpick, but the 13.4% increase 2010-2012 includes 4% of inflation. Similarly, the 33.9% required drop you calcualate above would be 30% (net of the 4% inflation). Finally, for me, the 30% drop from current prices (net of inflation) seems about right. But as for the time frame...lol...well, I've been wrong before, but I'll go with "over the next 5years".
James
Senior Member
From what I'm seeing, there is a noticeable but not significiant slowdown even in the SFH market. Properties are staying on the market a little bit longer and price drops are not surprising after a few weeks. There appears to be a slight reduction in asking prices as well, but again, fairly minor in the grand scheme of things. How much of this is the cooling market condition and how much of it is the standard fall season slowdown, I'm not sure.
Eug
Senior Member
Canadian housing market to slow moderately this year, into 2013: CMHC
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is forecasting a moderate slowdown in new-home construction starts as well as sales of existing housing.
The Ottawa-based federal agency isn’t calling for a major decline, but its latest forecast suggests next year will be somewhat softer than estimates CMHC issued in June while 2012 may be somewhat stronger than previously expected.
--
P.S. Safari was telling me that Teranet's www.housepriceindex.ca possibly had malware. Hmm...
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is forecasting a moderate slowdown in new-home construction starts as well as sales of existing housing.
The Ottawa-based federal agency isn’t calling for a major decline, but its latest forecast suggests next year will be somewhat softer than estimates CMHC issued in June while 2012 may be somewhat stronger than previously expected.
--
P.S. Safari was telling me that Teranet's www.housepriceindex.ca possibly had malware. Hmm...
brockm
Active Member
What I want is data on first-time home buyers as a percentage of the market over time. I don't have this data, and I'm trying to figure out how to compile it. But my hypothesis is, that their contribution to the housing market has been diminishing steadily over the past ten years, and has probably dropped off substantially since 2008.
I would expect to see real estate investors picking up all the slack (and then some) from that drop.
If my hypothesis is correct, and the data does reflect that, then I would double-down big time on my prediction of a >20% drop in prices.
I would expect to see real estate investors picking up all the slack (and then some) from that drop.
If my hypothesis is correct, and the data does reflect that, then I would double-down big time on my prediction of a >20% drop in prices.