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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Jeff316, thank you for the link. The two clicks are easy, but knowing where to click is the hard part.

I've looked over that data, and to my great surprise I must agree that City of Toronto ownerhsip rates were indeed at 53-54% in 2006.

I stand corrected. And I'm very surprised to see Toronto home ownerhsip rates so low. Even now in 2011, they are probably at less than 60%.

I've compiled that stats by ridings here below. I think the totals are higher, because a few more ridings were added to the GTA (I used the following Toronto Star link for the last election which has 47 GTA ridings). One can click on the ridings, and get information (including ownerhsip rates).
http://www.thestar.com/staticcontent/960020
 
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radioheadmike said:
I am agreeing with you. These cities do have higher paying jobs than Toronto at the moment. This is why the real estate in those cities are much higher than Toronto.
No one is disagreeing with you. And this is why I am saying that Toronto has a lot more growing to do (specifically with real estate prices).

And you can’t argue with me that Toronto is currently expensive. I am sorry that you can’t afford to live in well established neighborhoods. Look elsewhere. You can buy a home in the Weston corridor, heck; you can get a pent house unit in a well maintained tridel-built condo in that area for less than 200k.

What I am saying is that there is a lot of foreign investment that is going into this city because there is potential for higher ROI (with less risk). With this money coming into this city, there will be higher paying job. In 10 to 15 years, Toronto will become the financial hub of the world, while neo-socialist and neo-capitalist cities crumble. So that 400sqft studio in downtown will be worth at least over a million & that townhouse in Weston will be double in price.

It upsets me with the lack of pride in this City or in Canada.
Click to expand...



Just because you magically think that incomes are going to rise, it doesn't mean it'll happen. But, I know whatever decision I make, it will be wrong when it comes to Toronto real estate... I call it my fcuked-up-Karma-problem... if I buy the Toronto market is going to cave. Why... because God hates me... I haven't purchased a condo yet... but I know the moment I do... ever so fast the market is going to dive... because I seem to make wrong decisions all the time in regard to finances. I swear, I think I can predict the future but, I am wrong all the time. Hence if I stay out of the market... what you say might be true and I'll be priced out of the market... but... I'm sure more than 80% of Canadians will too.
 
macookie said:
Just because you magically think that incomes are going to rise, it doesn't mean it'll happen. But, I know whatever decision I make, it will be wrong when it comes to Toronto real estate... I call it my fcuked-up-Karma-problem... if I buy the Toronto market is going to cave. Why... because God hates me... I haven't purchased a condo yet... but I know the moment I do... ever so fast the market is going to dive... because I seem to make wrong decisions all the time in regard to finances. I swear, I think I can predict the future but, I am wrong all the time. Hence if I stay out of the market... what you say might be true and I'll be priced out of the market... but... I'm sure more than 80% of Canadians will too.
Click to expand...

There is enough socialist policies in Canada to help protect us for the foreseeable future. :)
 
macookie said:
Just because you magically think that incomes are going to rise, it doesn't mean it'll happen. But, I know whatever decision I make, it will be wrong when it comes to Toronto real estate... I call it my fcuked-up-Karma-problem... if I buy the Toronto market is going to cave. Why... because God hates me... I haven't purchased a condo yet... but I know the moment I do... ever so fast the market is going to dive... because I seem to make wrong decisions all the time in regard to finances. I swear, I think I can predict the future but, I am wrong all the time. Hence if I stay out of the market... what you say might be true and I'll be priced out of the market... but... I'm sure more than 80% of Canadians will too.
Click to expand...

I feel the same way but I ended up jumping in and bought a Loft on the subway line (buying on the subway line is "kind of" like an insurance againts a market crash). The way I see it is if I get screwed, everyone else will be in the same boat. Even for future buyers who are waiting for the market to crash might lose their good paying jobs due to a recession or depression - who knows.

Just make sure you buy a place that you can easily afford and put a 15% - 20% downpayment. And never treat your place like a piggy bank. Always save money on the side.
 
radioheadmike said:
And you can’t argue with me that Toronto is currently expensive. I am sorry that you can’t afford to live in well established neighborhoods. Look elsewhere. You can buy a home in the Weston corridor, heck; you can get a pent house unit in a well maintained tridel-built condo in that area for less than 200k.
Click to expand...

Arguing that Toronto RE is expensive does not mean that one cannot afford to live in well established neighbourhoods.

I've lived my entire life in "well established" neighbourhoods (Bloor west village, Yonge/Summerhill, the Annex, and currently Queen/Spadina). I'm a well paid executive, and can "afford" to live in most of T.O.'s neighbourhoods. But then, I could also "afford" to buy a porsche. But I consider the utility I derive from my various options, and I act accordingly.

I would advise against dismissing someone's arguments on a topic on the presumtion that their opinion is solely due to a secret envy of those with an opposing view. Just a suggestion.
 
radioheadmike said:
I feel the same way but I ended up jumping in and bought a Loft on the subway line (buying on the subway line is "kind of" like an insurance againts a market crash). The way I see it is if I get screwed, everyone else will be in the same boat. Even for future buyers who are waiting for the market to crash might lose their good paying jobs due to a recession or depression - who knows.

Just make sure you buy a place that you can easily afford and put a 15% - 20% downpayment. And never treat your place like a piggy bank. Always save money on the side.
Click to expand...

I think that's gr8 advice.
 
daveto said:
radioheadmike said:
And you can’t argue with me that Toronto is currently expensive. I am sorry that you can’t afford to live in well established neighborhoods. Look elsewhere. You can buy a home in the Weston corridor, heck; you can get a pent house unit in a well maintained tridel-built condo in that area for less than 200k.
Click to expand...

Arguing that Toronto RE is expensive does not mean that one cannot afford to live in well established neighbourhoods.

... I consider the utility I derive from my various options, and I act accordingly.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I'm neither bear nor bull, but to me at least the examples of the Weston townhome or penthouse could be construed as examples of Toronto's lack of affordability. It's always difficult to compare two different cities, but the Weston corridor is an example of how 350k/200k goes a lot farther in other areas of the province. It's not always the more expensive areas that are the most unaffordable or overpriced.
 
daveto said:
Arguing that Toronto RE is expensive does not mean that one cannot afford to live in well established neighbourhoods.

I've lived my entire life in "well established" neighbourhoods (Bloor west village, Yonge/Summerhill, the Annex, and currently Queen/Spadina). I'm a well paid executive, and can "afford" to live in most of T.O.'s neighbourhoods. But then, I could also "afford" to buy a porsche. But I consider the utility I derive from my various options, and I act accordingly.

I would advise against dismissing someone's arguments on a topic on the presumtion that their opinion is solely due to a secret envy of those with an opposing view. Just a suggestion.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I live (no mortgage on my house) in what is usually referred to as "one of the most affluent towns" just west of Toronto. I'd consider myself upper-middle class. And I think that prices of r/e in Toronto are above where they should be as a result of low interest rates, high debt, smart advertising by r/e industry, and finally good-old-simple greed by many people buying homes these days.
Comparision to historical norms, to income and rent levels, as well as debt levels, is what matters. Whether I personally can afford something or not has nothing to do with whether that particular asset is overpriced.
I can afford milk at $10 .... but I think that would be excessive ...
 
In today's The globe and Mail, Focus section, there is a centre fold -- 2 pages -- on "The decline and fall of the deadly commute". It talks about trend, across North America, of individuals getting tired of commuting, placing less reliance on car and moving closer to public transit and, where they can afford it, move to inner part of the city or even downtown. A few examples, with photos, have been given.

All this in-ward migration to the cities by the Canadian residents, immigrants moving into the city, overseas investors and 'local' investors of every colour means only one(1) thing --that there is no bubble and there will never be a meltdown of R/E prices, especially in downtown Toronto.

As CN Tower has pointed out in one of his thoughful posts that this continuous double-digit increase in prices is insane and will not last for ever. However, an increase in prices of around 5% -- 1 or 2 percentage points above inflation rate -- is historical and will continue over the long term.

Bears, who have stayed on the sidelines, will regret their decisions, sooner rather than later. I would suggest that they read this centre spread before pouncing upon this post.
 
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KA1 said:
In today's The globe and Mail, Focus section, there is a centre fold -- 2 pages -- on "The decline and fall of the deadly commute". It talks about trend, across North America, of individuals getting tired of commuting, placing less reliance on car and moving closer to public transit and, where they can afford it, move to inner part of the city or even downtown. A few examples, with photos, have been given.

All this in-ward migration to the cities by the Canadian residents, immigrants moving into the city, overseas investors and 'local' investors of every colour means only one(1) thing --that there is no bubble and there will never be a meltdown of R/E prices, especially in downtown Toronto.

As CN Tower has pointed out in one of his thoughful posts that this continuous double-digit increase in prices is insane and will not last for ever. However, an increase in prices of around 5% -- 1 or 2 percentage points above inflation rate -- is historical and will continue over the long term.

Bears, who have stayed on the sidelines, will regret their decisions, sooner rather than later. I would suggest that they read this centre spread before pouncing upon this post.
Click to expand...

I totally agree with the commuting part. The in-ward migration is happening and it affected my decision to move away from the suburbs to being near the subway line.
 
KA1 said:
In today's The globe and Mail, Focus section, there is a centre fold -- 2 pages -- on "The decline and fall of the deadly commute". It talks about trend, across North America, of individuals getting tired of commuting, placing less reliance on car and moving closer to public transit and, where they can afford it, move to inner part of the city or even downtown. A few examples, with photos, have been given.

All this in-ward migration to the cities by the Canadian residents, immigrants moving into the city, overseas investors and 'local' investors of every colour means only one(1) thing --that there is no bubble and there will never be a meltdown of R/E prices, especially in downtown Toronto.

As CN Tower has pointed out in one of his thoughful posts that this continuous double-digit increase in prices is insane and will not last for ever. However, an increase in prices of around 5% -- 1 or 2 percentage points above inflation rate -- is historical and will continue over the long term.

Bears, who have stayed on the sidelines, will regret their decisions, sooner rather than later. I would suggest that they read this centre spread before pouncing upon this post.
Click to expand...

Agreed with you. I see the trend of people moving back into the city only growing with time. With that said, I still think fundamentals will play an important factor in prices. Once interest rates creep back up to historical norms we'll start to see more rational prices in line with incomes and rents.
 
KA1 said:
In today's The globe and Mail, Focus section, there is a centre fold -- 2 pages -- on "The decline and fall of the deadly commute". It talks about trend, across North America, of individuals getting tired of commuting, placing less reliance on car and moving closer to public transit and, where they can afford it, move to inner part of the city or even downtown. A few examples, with photos, have been given.

All this in-ward migration to the cities by the Canadian residents, immigrants moving into the city, overseas investors and 'local' investors of every colour means only one(1) thing --that there is no bubble and there will never be a meltdown of R/E prices, especially in downtown Toronto.

As CN Tower has pointed out in one of his thoughful posts that this continuous double-digit increase in prices is insane and will not last for ever. However, an increase in prices of around 5% -- 1 or 2 percentage points above inflation rate -- is historical and will continue over the long term.

Bears, who have stayed on the sidelines, will regret their decisions, sooner rather than later. I would suggest that they read this centre spread before pouncing upon this post.
Click to expand...

Never? That is a strong word! Not even Cityplace? ... hahaha (I remember your negative comments about CP)
 
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