interested
Senior Member
You're right, but the housing market is different for a lot of people. It's not as if everyone who owns a house to live in is suddenly just going to sell the house and rent because s/he is worried about a 15% real estate price decline.
I've been telling people that at these price points, short term condo speculation has become a very risky game, but I don't discourage people from buying a place in this market if it's their primary residence, as long as they don't get caught up in some stupid bidding war or something. My sis just bought a place, and when the prices have been high for places she checked out, I've voiced my reservations, but she ended up being quite the bargainer and got a reasonable deal for this market, for her primary residence. Sure, it's quite possible that even with her reasonable price (I'd guess around 4-5% or so below what I considered reasonable market value) a price decline of 15% would mean her home would be only worth ~90% of what she paid for it, but she still needs a place to live.
However, if she had said she wanted to spend that money as an investment, I would have been far less supportive, even if she could get the place for 5% under market value.
I totally agree with your differentiation Eug between living vs. investing.
That said, however, if everything we read is correct; condo buying in the C01 area is in the pervue of end users but also to a significant degree "investors". Whether the investors are 30% or up to 70% which are numbers I have seen bantered around; as we have I believe in the past agreed; it is those at the margin who determine real estate prices.
If 90% say of the larger market is made up home owners; but 30-70% of the new product in the area is investors; and say they act as investors meaning they evaluate the purchase and if not profitable with no clear view of reasonable profit in a reasonable time future and unload the investment; this 30-70% of new product is now not the 10% of the market coming to sell but rather represent a much larger proportion.
Assuming investors have placed less equity than say long term buy and hold home owners, if there is a downturn and in particular if there is a sustained and significant downturn, they may want/have to get out of the real estate market. They hence influence prices far more than you or I do when talking about our principal residence because we are going to shrug our shoulders and say "we have to live somewhere and I am not selling".
The investor will say or should say; I will dump my non performing investment in favour of one that makes more sense.