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Baby, we got a bubble!?

The new mortgage rules coupled with the closing of the principal residence deduction loophole for non residents will no doubt have a chilling affect on the GTA market for months to come. How can prices not fall when they're set at the margin of affordability and the stress test just bumped the rate from 2.4% to 4.6%?

Look for a quick shakeout of the marginal players- developers and lenders alike. And don't think condo prices are immune. They're probably more at risk because of the loophole.
 
I thought this was a good, level-headed article:

Is This a Good Time to Buy a Home in Toronto?
http://www.movesmartly.com/2016/10/is-this-a-good-time-to-buy-a-home-in-toronto.html

The couple of paragraphs about black swan events are great points that are valid in both real estate and stock markets alike:

In his bestselling book The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb describes how people often error in the way they approach rare and unpredictable events like asset bubbles and financial crises. He suggests that rather than try to predict exactly when these rare events are going to occur – which is what most of us do in the case of the real estate market - we should just assume that the event will occur and plan our lives and decisions around them.

Most people’s stress about the real estate market stems from the fact that they are trying to predict the unpredictable rather than just accepting that house prices will fall one day. This decline can happen a year from now or it could happen five years from now. Nobody can predict the future. But coming to terms with this fact allows you to make smarter and more defensive home buying decisions.
 
Proof of the insanity of mortgage lenders/insurers/purchasers: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/genworth-mortgage-changes-1.3792174

Genworth also said that approximately 50 to 55 per cent of its total portfolio new insurance written would no longer be eligible for mortgage insurance under the new low-ratio mortgage insurance requirements.

More than half their clients couldn't qualify for a mortgage at 4.6%. What were these folks planning on doing when they had to refinance in 5 or less years? I love hearing people talk about how mortgage lenders here are so much more responsible than in the U.S. prior to the 2008 meltdown. Complete myth in my estimation.
 
Proof of the insanity of mortgage lenders/insurers/purchasers: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/genworth-mortgage-changes-1.3792174



More than half their clients couldn't qualify for a mortgage at 4.6%. What were these folks planning on doing when they had to refinance in 5 or less years? I love hearing people talk about how mortgage lenders here are so much more responsible than in the U.S. prior to the 2008 meltdown. Complete myth in my estimation.


Canadian financial institutions sold high-risk MBSs as safe also
 
I love hearing people talk about how mortgage lenders here are so much more responsible than in the U.S. prior to the 2008 meltdown. Complete myth in my estimation.

Yup. It reminds me living in Vancouver during the mid-90's, when so many women were going missing from the East side. A crime expert from the states said "You guys have a serial killer," to which an investigator replied that wasn't the case, because we just didn't have those here in Canada. Or something to that effect.

Canada is like the mother that just can't accept that her precious little angel did anything wrong, even when confronted with the evidence.

If I learned anything from "The Big Short", it is that the financial systems and institutions are inherently corrupt, and will go to great lengths to protect themselves -- until the building pressure just can't be held back any longer.
 
More than half their clients couldn't qualify for a mortgage at 4.6%. What were these folks planning on doing when they had to refinance in 5 or less years?

How do you know mortgage rates won't go down in that period? Bond rates are falling and are negative in Europe. With the depression in the energy industry and nothing to replace that major economic driver, and a clueless & incompetent PMO with no understanding of economics, Canada has no inflation on the horizon.

All we have is housing and the reactionary fools in Ottawa are out to kill that golden goose too.
 
How do you know mortgage rates won't go down in that period? Bond rates are falling and are negative in Europe. With the depression in the energy industry and nothing to replace that major economic driver, and a clueless & incompetent PMO with no understanding of economics, Canada has no inflation on the horizon.

All we have is housing and the reactionary fools in Ottawa are out to kill that golden goose too.

I have no clue what will happen to interest rates. However, who wouldn't consider the impact of at least a 3% increase on their ability to pay their mortgage? People are signing on the dotted line without even the most basic research.

That said, I think we'll see interest rate increases. America's economy is rolling again. If they raise rates, ours will follow soon or else the CDN$ will completely collapse. Maybe that's the government's plan but people's standard of living will collapse alongside the CDN$.
 


Ottawa proposes sweeping changes to spread mortgage risks

Tamsin McMahon - REAL ESTATE REPORTER
The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Oct. 21, 2016 10:14AM EDT
Last updated Friday, Oct. 21, 2016 11:34AM EDT



Ottawa is launching consultations with the financial industry that could see lenders shouldering as much as 15 per cent of the costs of losses on defaulted mortgages that have government-backed insurance.

The Department of Finance released a 22-page consultation paper laying out its vision of sweeping changes to Canada’s 62-year-old mortgage insurance system in an effort to shift more of the risks of Canada’s hot housing market from taxpayers to lenders themselves. It is asking for lender feedback by Feb. 28.

“Lender risk sharing represents a potential approach to rebalance the distribution of risk in Canada’s housing finance system, to take advantage of lenders’ abilities to manage housing risks, thereby reducing taxpayer exposure, while continuing to meet housing finance objectives of financial stability, access, competition and efficiency,” the government wrote in its paper.

Canada’s mortgage insurance system guarantees that taxpayers will shoulder virtually all of the costs of mortgages that default, paying lenders for lost principal and interest, as well as for the costs of foreclosing on a property, such as legal fees and property maintenance.

Financial institution themselves are on the hook for little, if any of the costs of dealing with defaulted mortgages. Taxpayers shoulder 100 per cent of the costs of mortgages insured by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. and 90 per cent of the costs of CMHC’s private-sector competitors.

More than half, 56 per cent, of roughly $1.4-trillion outstanding mortgage debt in Canada is insured, although that share has been declining in recent years due to a several rounds of rule-tightening by Ottawa since the 2008 financial crisis.

The federal government’s paper lays out two scenarios that could see lenders shouldering as much as 15 per cent of the losses associated with a defaulted mortgage that is backed by taxpayer-guaranteed insurance.

One option, would require lenders to absorb a fixed percentage of the total outstanding value of a defaulted mortgage, in the range of 5 to 10 per cent, according to Ottawa’s proposal.

Another option would require lenders to absorb a percentage of the total loss associated with a default mortgage, pegged at 15 per cent.

The difference between the two could be substantial.

Ottawa estimates that under the first option lenders would be on the hook for a maximum of $15,000 of costs associated with a $300,000 mortgage that defaults, regardless of how much money lenders or insurers are able to recover. Under the second scenario, lenders’ share of the costs would change depending on the size of the loss, with lenders on the hook for as little as $9,000 if lenders can recover 80 per cent of the total value of the mortgage, or as much as $22,5000 if they can recover only half.

The government is proposing to implement the deductible in the form of a separate fee for lenders. Mortgage insurers would continue to pay out 100 per cent of mortgage default claims, but then charge lenders a fee based on the total value of mortgages on their books that default in a given quarter.

The structure would protect CMHC’s $440-billion mortgage-backed securities program, which also has a taxpayer guarantee, Ottawa said Risk-sharing will ultimately require mortgage lenders to hold more capital against riskier loans while insurers, including CMHC, would hold less.

Ottawa estimates the measures would add 20 to 30 basis points to lenders’ mortgage costs, although mortgage insurance premiums would likely fall, meaning consumers who take out insured mortgages would not see a dramatic rise in mortgage rates.

However, the government said the proposal could lead to mortgage insurance premiums that are more in line with the risks of an individual mortgage, such as a home buyers’ credit score or the strength of the local housing market. Currently, mortgage insurance premiums are based only on the level of a borrower’s down payment.

Ottawa said it expected that any risk-sharing plan would apply only to new mortgages and would be rolled out gradually. The government expects the proportion of insured mortgages subject to risk-sharing to rise quickly in the first five years, but require up to 10-20 years to fully take effect.
 
New month, new stats. Some of TREB's monthly figures for October 2016.

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/market_watch/2016/mw1610.pdf

Detached Houses
City of Toronto - $1,303,339 average / $988,500 median
Toronto West - $1,019,336 average / $830,050 median
Toronto Central - $2,086,362 average / $1,826,500 median
Toronto East - $900,239 average / $824,000 median

Semi-Detached Houses
City of Toronto - $902,137 average / $795,000 median
Toronto West - $737,532 average / $680,000 median
Toronto Central - $1,236,673 average / $1,143,000 median
Toronto East - $826,546 average / $775,000 median

Condominium Townhouses
City of Toronto - $585,097 average / $525,000 median
Toronto West - $484,709 average / $470,000 median
Toronto Central - $740,569 average / $602,000 median
Toronto East - $497,414 average / $465,000 median

Condominium Apartment
City of Toronto - $459,199 average / $399,888 median
Toronto West - $369,660 average / $340,000 median
Toronto Central - $508,617 average / $433,990 median
Toronto East - $333,805 average / $299,450 median
 
So here we are on page 691 of this thread and the same premonitions of the impending crash are echoed, as if cntl <c><v> from page 1 (2009). Interest rates will certainly play a large role in any 'downturn' eventually, but given a new coal/oil-loving POTUS next door (suppressing oil prices further) and inflation showing no signs of being aroused back to life for months if not years, it seems we may easily surpass page 1000 of this thread with similar discussions. Add to that (1) the continued positive influx of people in the GTA, (2) the continued drying up of infill as we sit landlocked between lake/Green Belt, (3) Toronto's long string of making Top 5 lists for best cities to live in globally (not to mention Canada) and (4) the fact we are finally just catching up to the rest of the world in terms of real estate prices (NYC, London, Hong Kong, Sydney, Taipei, Paris, Beijing, Tokyo, Geneva, Auckland, Singapore, Zurich, Moscow, Shanghai, San Francisco, Stockholm, etc., etc). So predictions of a dire crash seem pointless at this stage. So could it happen in 6 months? Yes but exceedingly unlikely. I'll see you on page 1000 ;-)
 
My gut feel (not quantitative) is that real estate prices will continue to stay high in Canada when compared against reasonable metrics (income to debt ratios, income to house price ratios, interest rates). A big factor that I haven't seen discussed here is the culture of inbound immigrants. e.g. In India, real estate prices are extremely high in cities, and defy all logical metrics. Part of the reason is that Indians don't spend, they invest. They look to invest as much of their disposable income as possible. Lot of my family (Indians) live like poor people, but they have 2M dollar (USD) houses. They invest in the Indian stock market but don't buy moisturizer or furniture. That kind of culture is clearly present in Canada as well as we accept more and more immigrants. A lot of us Canadians don't grasp that concept, because we try to keep to a reasonable amount of our income for eating out, entertainment, etc. e.g. some people in my extended family never go to the movie theatre, they think its an obscene waste of money when you can watch the same movie bootlegged at home on their computer. But they each have Million dollar plus net worth, mostly via real estate. Immigrants dont spend, they invest. I'm sure there are metrics in countries like India that support this claim.
 
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In short they are cheap :D
I work in the service industry and the tips are a big part of my salary and I can confirm that when I have indian and chinese people 90% of time I'll get nothing or a ridiculous amount. I talked about that with few friends working in the service industry as well and that the same for them.
On the contrary when I see people from the US I know the tip will be generous.

I'm also an immigrant from Europe I live here for 2 years now and even if we don't tip in my country once I arrived here I adapted directly on how it works.
So what you said is confirming to me that's maybe people from certain country as a different vision of the consumption, but I still think in my case it's not very fair and sellfish cuz I give the same service even if I know I'll get nothing and when I go to a Indian, Chinese or whatever place I will still tip the regular amount.

Even if I agree on how is important to invest money, I also think it's important for the economy and for you to think to enjoy and spend a little bit, we only live once : )
 

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