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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Crazy busy folks......

Bisha Hotel and Res Media party last night, launching at high $600 per sq ft , studios at $750 psf all prices starting from 10 th floor, floor price premiums apply.

Nicholas ap for add six floors rejected by city , not a minor variance, why are they wanting to add floors, the demand is there folks. This is a not so great area either.

For rent new listings in the downtown core are being TRUMPED by leased, in some days double, this is a very good thing for supply and investors , I maintain a rented unit makes the sell decision hard for the investor vs empty.

Out of country next week for a few weeks, so if you dont hear from me dont think i am hiding from some of you negative ones out there lol
 
Link to an article in today.s The Globe and Mail for your review and thoughtful comments.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...pan-land-of-the-falling-price/article1666427/

Asset deflation is a major concern, even here in Canada. People with large mortgages will be hurt the hardest since their home will fall in value while their debt remains the same. Rich people will see their relative buying power increase causing a greater gap between the haves and the have nots. It's why we needed to raise interest rates more and sooner so that we would have room for emergency measures. Unfortunately, raising rates right now will have too detrimental an effect on the people who lowering the rates is supposed to help.
 
Asset deflation is a major concern, even here in Canada. People with large mortgages will be hurt the hardest since their home will fall in value while their debt remains the same. Rich people will see their relative buying power increase causing a greater gap between the haves and the have nots. It's why we needed to raise interest rates more and sooner so that we would have room for emergency measures. Unfortunately, raising rates right now will have too detrimental an effect on the people who lowering the rates is supposed to help.


which was why lowering them so dramatically in the first place several years ago was a mistake.

all it did was boost elevated property prices.
Canada was doing fine only experiencing a mild, almost negligible, recession.

unfortunately, Carney repeated Greenspan's mistake after the tech bubble; which was further compounded by CMHC's mistake to lower DP requirements.
 
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Crazy busy folks......

Bisha Hotel and Res Media party last night, launching at high $600 per sq ft , studios at $750 psf all prices starting from 10 th floor, floor price premiums apply.l

$ 750 psf in the current environment reasonable? Any thoughts by Interested or any one else?

Would appreciate if someone could, periodically, post sales figures of Bisha.
 


that's old news ... ask them how their sentiment is after this week.

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-wor...-look-like?sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

What the Double-Dip Recession Will Look Like
by Douglas A. McIntyre
Friday, August 13, 2010

"Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the economy has yet to hit bottom, a sharply higher percentage than the 53% who felt that way in January," according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll.

A growing and vocal minority of economists believes that there will be a double-dip recession primarily because of the intransigence of high unemployment and the rapidly faltering housing market.
The notion of a "jobless recovery" has been around since the recessions of the 1950s and 1960s. It is a concept built on a relatively simple idea: employment lags during a recession but it is always part of a recovery cycle. Production rises as businesses see the end of a downturn and anticipate improving sales. They are reluctant to hire new workers until the recovery is confirmed, but once it has been, hiring picks up.

The 2008-2009 recession was — if it is indeed over — different from any other because of its depth and causes. The first trigger was the drop in housing prices, which robbed many people of their primary access to capital. As that access disappeared, so did the availability of credit. Consumer buying power evaporated and business cut inventory and production. Joblessness rose. Finally, consumer confidence plunged.

The last downturn was so great that in some months more than 500,000 people lost jobs. The unemployment rolls are now more than 8 million, and perhaps more gravely, over 1.4 million people have been out of work for over 99 weeks — which means they are no longer eligible to receive unemployment insurance benefits. This segment of the population has already begun to add to the number of indigent Americans and will continue to do so unless they can find homes with friends and family.

The second dip of the recession that ended in 2009, according to economists and the federal government, is likely to begin within the next two quarters if certain conditions are met.

Unemployment claims are running well above expectations, and recently hit a six-month high. The four-week average of initial claims rose 14,250 to 473,500 this week. The last peak, in February, was during a period when GDP was in the very early stages of recovery. There is nearly no jobs creation in the private sector. Real estate prices continue to drop, particularly in the hardest hit regions such as California, Nevada, Florida and Michigan.

The federal, state and local governments are in no position to lend assistance to businesses, most of which lack access to capital. Similarly, banks are not prepared to lend to small businesses, especially those with modest balance sheets and relatively low sales. This presents a problem for employment since companies with less than one hundred workers have traditionally been the largest creators of jobs.

This is what a double-dip recession would look like:

1. Housing

The cost of homes in the areas where prices have already dropped by 50% or more will continue to fall. These regions typically have the highest unemployment rates, the local governments are hard pressed to offer basic services, and potential buyers are aware that home prices could drop further. Real estate values in these areas could drop another 20%. In the rest of the country, protracted unemployment and the unwillingness of banks to lend would make otherwise attractive all-time low mortgage rates unappealing.

2. Unemployment

Unemployment would move back above 10% quickly. In the 1982 recession, the jobless rate was over 10% for 20 consecutive months and reached 10.8% for two months. During this period, the manufacturing base had not been destroyed. The economy is now arguably worse than it was in 1982. Many Americans who worked in manufacturing before the recession cannot be retrained, and the factories where they worked will not be reopened. Many companies have recently adopted the policy that they will keep as much of their work-force temporary for as long as possible. This keeps the cost of benefits low and allows firms to fire people quickly and without severance. A hiring strike by American businesses would contribute to putting 200,000 to 300,000 people out of work per month. At the peak of the recession that just ended, there were nearly six job seekers for every open job, according to the Labor Department. The job market could return to that point.

3. Consumer Spending

One of the primary reasons that consumer buying activity did not grind to a halt at the beginning of the last recession was that people still had access to a huge reservoir of home equity loans, most of which were taken out at the peak of the real estate market in 2005 and 2006. The New York Times recently reported that "lenders wrote off as uncollectible $11.1 billion in home equity loans and $19.9 billion in home equity lines of credit in 2009, more than they wrote off on primary mortgages, government data shows. So far this year, the trend is the same." Retail activity was helped somewhat by the capital available on these lines of credit, so store closings were probably deferred to the latter part of 2008. With more than 11 million mortgages underwater, 24% of the national total, and several million more within a few percentage points of being negative, the consumer will have no cushion as the economy deteriorates over the next six months.

4. Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence, the critical gauge of the activity that represents two-thirds of U.S. GDP, will plummet again. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index would certainly move back toward the all-time low it hit in February 2009 when it reached 25. Currently, the measure in most months is closer to 60.

5. Auto Industry

Auto sales, one of the primary barometers of consumer economic activity and manufacturing output, would probably drop back to recession levels. People concerned about employment will defer car purchases. Annual car sales in the U.S. were over 16 million in 2005 but dropped to just above 10 million in 2009. The car companies hope that domestic sales will rise to 11.5 million this year. In a double-dip recession, at least 1 million of those annual sales would be lost.

6. Trade

The nominal balance of trade would almost certainly drop, probably to a deficit of $25 billion a month, as the U.S. takes in fewer imports due to low demand for consumer goods and business inventory. Exports would also drop because an economic crisis in the U.S. would spread quickly worldwide. This is because of the tremendous size of the U.S. GDP in relation to that of any other country. The drop in imports would be a signal that business activity had slowed in China, the rest of Asia and Europe. Demand for consumer and business goods would drop in most regions, forcing a nearly universal cut in jobs outside the U.S.

7. Budget

The budget deficit would grow beyond the $1.5 trillion it should reach this year. Treasury receipts fell to $2.1 trillion in the federal fiscal year 2009 and are down to $1.7 trillion so far in the 2010 period. If history is any guide, receipts in a second recession could drop by as much as $200 trillion a year as tax receipts from both business and individuals falter. The demand on the federal government to render aid to the unemployed could add $50 billion to annual government outlays. Unemployment insurance will cost Washington $44 billion this year. As states run out of money to cover benefits, more of the burden could fall to the federal government.

8. National Debt

The rise in the deficit and a rapid increase in the American national debt would cause concern among the capital markets investors who purchase U.S. Treasuries. The inability of the Treasury to rein in spending will cause borrowing to increase. This in turn could bring the government's debt rating down, in turn causing U.S. borrowing costs to rise. Increasing costs will then raise the annual expenditure to run the government by increasing debt service.

9. Stock Market

If the performance of the equity markets in 2008 and early 2009 is any indication, the S&P 500 would drop from its current level of about 1,100 to a low of 676, which it hit in March 2009. This would take trillions of dollars off business balance sheets and from consumer retirement and brokerage accounts. Businesses would become less likely to invest in new plants, equipment and services. For individuals, many would see a large part of their retirement disappear. That would cause a huge drop in consumer spending as people attempt to preserve cash, perpetuating further drops in the stock market.

10. Banking

The effect on most of the financial services industry would be catastrophic, particularly at the regional and community bank level where a number of home and commercial real estate loans are held. The FDIC would be forced to borrow money from the Treasury to cover bank closings. The number of failed banks could reach the level of the savings and loan crisis during which over 700 banks and mortgage lenders were shuttered.

11. Interest Rates

As the great majority of economists have pointed out, the Fed has already dropped interest rates to zero. This means the central bank is out of ammunition.
 
$ 750 psf in the current environment reasonable? Any thoughts by Interested or any one else?

Would appreciate if someone could, periodically, post sales figures of Bisha.

Seems rich to me but I am not familiar with the project. Is this a mid/upper condo project in the downtown core. Excuse my ignorance. And how does it compare to say Five and Chaz (asking somewhat close to these prices I believe.

I expect prices to continue to remain relatively high and a number of projects to get shelved/delayed/repackaged or incentivized. However, developers will not want to drop prices but offer incentives rather because of the fear of driving down prices/demand and having people sit on the fence.

The Oakville project I mentioned before was offered at what I consider aggressive prices but the previous purchasers were offered 10% reduction for buying before it goes to the VIP agents. I will be intrigued to see what ultimately happens because at 10% reductions I thought prices were perhaps reasonable given todays market but I expect within 6 months to a year prices will be lower.

I believe the problem as I said will be the Johhny come lately who buy at these prices since if they do, I don't believe there will be any economic sense to be made if it is viewed as an investment. However, while alot of readers on the forum are more informed/?misinformed, I am not sure that alot of the investing public is as well versed or as interested as those of us who seem to soak this stuff up. So, there may still be some legs left to this environment where people still buy expecting that things will continue up and will believe that we had a 7-9 month correction but everything recovered "so it will do the same again".

Not a very useful answer I am afraid Ka
 
From todays National post:

http://www.nationalpost.com/Parsing+July+resale+drop/3397983/story.html

Parsing GTA's July resale drop
National Post · Saturday, Aug. 14, 2010

The 2010 resale home market in the GTA is a tale of two halves. Through the first seven months, sales were up 12% from the same period in 2009 (56,829 sales versus 50,632 last year). The annual growth in resale transactions this year took place during the first four months. Since May, sales have been lower compared with the same month in 2009. Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board's senior manager of market analysis, points to issues that have resulted in the dip in sales over the past few months.

"Given the current population level and the historic number of home sales per capita, total resales in the 80,000 to 90,000 range for 2010 would make sense. However, monthly sales between June 2009 and April 2010 were suggesting an annual pace of well over 100,000 sales," Mr. Mercer says. "Two things were at play. First, we saw pent-up demand from the recession quickly satisfied in the second half of 2009. Second, we saw households [buying before] anticipated interest rate hikes this summer."

With sales that otherwise would have been more evenly distributed throughout the year pulled forward, it makes sense that we will experience a balancing in the second half of 2010, or even into 2011
. During my time working in the GTA real estate market, the level of transactions has always rebalanced itself after moving too far above or below the long-term trend dictated by population growth.

The annual dip in sales we have experienced since May has garnered attention. A common argument has been that fewer transactions will directly translate into lower selling prices. This is not necessarily the case. Mr. Mercer explains that it is the relationship between sales and listings that influences price growth.
"If the level of sales drops rapidly relative to the level of listings, buyers have much more bargaining power, so the average selling price can drop. This is what happened at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009," Mr. Mercer says. "The situation has unfolded differently over the past couple of months in the GTA. While sales dropped quite a bit in June and July [34% and 23% respectively from the sames months in 2009], the number of new listings has also come down. This means there has still been quite a bit of competition between buyers. This is why average prices have continued to be higher than those reported at the same time last year."

"On top of the fact that there remains enough competition between buyers to support price growth, it should also be noted that home ownership remains affordable in the GTA," Mr. Mercer says. "The share of the average gross household income in the GTA going toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities remains in line with mortgage lending guidelines."

It is clear we will not experience record-setting sales through the balance of 2010. Sales over the past 12 months have been well above the per-capita levels we have historically seen. The trend for new listings has followed the sales trend, meaning there have been enough buyers relative to sellers to sustain growth in average selling prices. It will be important to follow this demand and supply relationship along with changes in affordability over the next few months to better understand the prospects for price growth over the next year.

- Bill Johnston is president of the Toronto Real Estate Board, a professional association that represents 30,000 realtors in the GTA.


Read more: http://www.nationalpost.com/Parsing+July+resale+drop/3397983/story.html#ixzz0wal7Az3E

I have hilighted a few points. I appreciate this is put forth by the president of TREB but even he acknowledges that inevitably prices follow demand. "This time seems to unfolding differently" always makes me worry when I see things are different this time. However, that said, the article does represent a somewhat balanced view coming from a markedly "pro good story" invested source.
 
One more post about the Bisha: From todays star:

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/847880--toronto-s-king-of-clubs-turns-to-hotels?bn=1



Mel Pearl from Lifetime Developments, left, and Charles Khabouth of INK Entertainment are building "Bisha," a boutique hotel and condo on Blue Jays Way.

DAVID COOPER/TORONTO STAR
Ads by Google
Luxury Condo For Seniors



By Tony Wong
Business Reporter
Charles Khabouth is no stranger to rolling the dice when it comes to churning out new ventures aimed at fickle consumers.

As Canada’s largest nightclub operator he is an established brand, the most powerful man in Toronto’s entertainment district. A pope to the city’s night denizens hopped up on lychee martinis and techno.

But his latest project is his biggest gamble yet. And this time he’s put his name on it.

Khabouth is building a $150-million hotel and condominium named Bisha. That’s short for Bechara, Khabouth’s childhood name.

You can hardly miss it. A giant billboard emblazoned with his logo is already planted at 56 Blue Jays Way, the former home of the Second City comedy troupe in downtown Toronto.

The size of the venture begs the question: Khabouth has conquered the club world, but can he succeed in North America’s toughest condo market?

Torontonians are spoiled for choice when it comes to boxes in the sky. In the second quarter of the year the city had 272 condominium projects on the market — the most of any metropolitan area on the continent. Another condo? Yawn. Another boutique hotel? Take a number.

“We want to be able to have the hip factor of a boutique hotel, but with the attention to detail of a Four Seasons,” says Khabouth.

There is sawdust in the air, and earlier in the week his sales office was covered in plastic sheets, but Khabouth’s vision is taking shape.

“It all starts with the doors,” says Khabouth, pointing to oversized, ornate dark wood doors with elaborate gold handles. “That’s the first thing people see. Impressions count.”

Khabouth’s style is Prince of Persia meets Philippe Starck. In his restaurants, velvet and gold accents and dangling beaded curtains clash with angular granite and glass, recreating the Persian lounge for the 21st century.

Not surprisingly, the new project will be opulent, with a distinctly nightclub vibe.

Bisha’s hotel will have two themed floors: a black and red themed Rock and Roll floor, and a Hollywood Floor with a Beverley Hills vibe. Like his clubs, there will be a huge amount of space — 30,000 square feet devoted to amenities including food and beverage and a fitness centre.

On top of the 41-storey development, Khabouth’s INK Entertainment, along with Lifetime Developments principals Mel Pearl and Sam Herzog, plan to build 332 condos.

“We want to create a hotel brand from scratch,” says Pearl. “This hasn’t been done in Toronto since Issy Sharp built the Four Seasons.”

The partners hope that the Bisha concept can be expanded to other cities to take a place among other hip hotel brands, such as W and Thompson Hotels.

The concept might sound silly. Who would care about a Johnny-come-lately Canadian brand when the world is filled with boutique wannabees?

That was the question Pearl asked himself when he set to build a hotel in Toronto. Lifetime started out as a low-rise developer before branching into downtown condos. The company currently has eight projects on the market, with a C.V. that includes partnerships in Liberty Market Lofts and the Four Seasons Hotel and Residences, the highest-profile condo project in the city.

But developing a new brand is a lot riskier than simply hiring a management company such as a Ritz Carlton or Trump. The partners know that getting a customer to commit to an overpriced Red Bull or two is one thing. Selling condos that will go from more than $300,000 to over $1.5 million will prove more difficult.
Pearl hooked up with Khabouth through Bisha designer Alessandro Munge, who had worked for both men. Pearl, a youthful looking 55-year-old with a penchant for jeans, already knew Khabouth by reputation.

Khabouth, 49, grew up in Lebanon. Even though he has couture tastes — he owned his own Hugo Boss boutique, drove a Ferrari and his wife is a former model — Khabouth wears a signature dark urban safari jacket and could easily be mistaken for a bike courier.

He worked three jobs in high school; his first was at a McDonald’s. When he was 22, he started his first nightclub with a $30,000 loan. He hit it big when he used the proceeds from his first venture to rent a decrepit space at Richmond and Duncan in 1986, creating what would become the city’s entertainment district.

The privately owned INK generates now more than $30 million in revenues annually, according to Khabouth. It owns and operates the massive Guvernment and Kool Haus nightclub complex on the city’s waterfront, the largest such venue in Canada with more than 50,000 square feet on the main floor, and the This Is London nightclub in the entertainment district. It also owns the Dragonfly Nightclub in Casino Niagara and a string of restaurants, including Ultra Supper Club on Queen Street and Spice Route, an Asian-influenced bistro bar on King Street West.

This year, Khabouth is finally being recognized by the mainstream business community. He is on the short list of nominees for an Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year award.

Khabouth has been likened to Canada’s Ian Schrager, the former Studio 54 owner credited for creating the widely copied boutique hotel concept in Manhattan.

He was the Toronto original, here before the über-hip Drake and Gladstone hotels. Before Peter Freed developed the city’s west end and brought in a newly opened Thompson Hotel with its rooftop pool parties. But it took him a lot longer to get in the business.

Khabouth understands the irony. The man who originated the lifestyle club looks like he’s coming late to the all-night party he started.

And besides, Canada already has a boutique chain. Khabouth was beaten to the punch by Quebec City’s Christiane Germain. In the ’90s she stayed at Schrager’s first hotel, Morgans in New York, and was inspired to do something north of the border. (A Hotel Le Germain in Toronto opened in 2002; a second is planned to open this fall beside the Air Canada Centre.)

“Being late is one thing, but it doesn’t matter how late you are if you’re incompetent,” argues Pearl. “I think people who buy into Bisha will see that they are getting value, they will see it in the execution.”

The developers understand that just because you build it, patrons won’t necessarily appear. You need buzz.

This is, perhaps, the entrepreneur’s competitive advantage in the hotel game.

Under INK, Khabouth books dozens of musical acts every year and plays host to celebrities and rock stars in his many clubs. Last year, he estimates he rented more than 1,500 rooms at Toronto hotels to host his out-of-town acts. This year INK was the official host for the Much Music Video Awards, organizing official after parties for stars such as Justin Bieber and Miley Cyrus.

In the brave new world of product placement, nowhere is the power of celebrity more profound than in the hospitality industry. You are where you dine and sleep.

Today, paparazzi in front of Nobu in New York or Thompson’s Hollywood Roosevelt provide perfect global marketing. Whether it’s handbags or hotel rooms, celebrities move product.

“I know this city,” says Khabouth. “I know the hotels. I know the nightclubs. I know the people. I’m not saying this because I’m trying to boast. It’s a fact.”

Pierre Bergevin , president of real estate consultancy Cushman & Wakefield, says there is still room for good boutique hotels in the city.

“Just try and get a room during the film festival,” says Bergevin. “They attract a higher-spending customer with good disposable income that isn’t necessarily on a corporate budget.”

Bergevin says the small size of the hotels also means that there is less chance of saturation.

But like hip nightclubs, hot hotels can be yesterday’s news. Maintaining an edge will be challenging. And then there is the question of too much product.

“What keeps me awake at night? That the (condo) market will crash,” Khabouth says bluntly.

Sales in the new condo market were down 8 per cent in the second quarter of 2010 compared with the first. Some analysts say there are already too many projects on the market.

Pearl remembers 1989 in Toronto all too well. His company had 40 low-rise homes in North York that had been sold. Only four closed the year the bubble burst.

“We learned some hard lessons,” says Pearl. “You never say never — the economy can always go south. Or your ego can get the better of you.”

Pearl says he has seen too many projects fail because of hubris. Of developers who think it’s cool to get into the hotel and restaurant business because they want to hang out with models.

“This isn’t about vanity, about having a place to crash,” says Pearl. “We’ve seen that movie before. Our numbers have to work.”

Pearl says Lifetime is conservatively managed and takes on strategic partnerships to diversify. Khabouth claims he is not leveraged on any of his existing companies. The partners say they are funding the start-up costs, including the elaborate showroom, entirely with cash.

Once construction starts, the building will be debt financed. But first, they have to sell consumers on the idea of buying into the Bisha lifestyle.

Advertising for Bisha shows a sensuous black and white image of a woman’s face, blindfolded by a lace handkerchief. It suggests the good life with a hint of S&M, not all that different from the underground club scene Khabouth helped cultivate.

But after conquering the club world, it remains to be seen whether he can create a hotel brand that will bear his name.

“This is taking everything I know — all my different skills — and putting it in one project,” says Khabouth. “It’s something that hopefully will be around for my kids and grandkids.”


I think at $700+ as was suggested by Ka for this project, it is a very large risk. The developer is going for a niche and banking on selling a new boutique hotel name. If it works and is successful, prices could skyrocket. The Thomson Hotel I understand is very popular and values have gone up perhaps even more than other condos in the City relatively, or so I have been told (60-80% in the 4 years).

However I share the concern that if not successful, this investment value could plummet. I just think it is a gamble going with an unbranded hotel. Look at 1 King st, Harry Stinson's building. I realize there are other issues but this did not take off because in part there was not a well known brand behind it.

I share concerns about the absolute number of hotel rooms being added to the city. Sure, during TIFF there may be a shortage of rooms but how often is TIFF or similar in town. That said, perhaps "if you build it they will come" and the fact that Toronto has all these 5 star hotels coming will result in their being occupied.

Finally, I appreciate the candor of the developer himself saying about a Condo Market Crash. It sounds as though this is a very well connected/financed operation and if he puts his own money for sales center and gets the staff, the worst case scenario is he loses his initial investment.

As an investment, I would choose an established brand rather than run the risk but I am conservative. I am sure there is a target audience for this, I just don't know if they are the well healed financial group that $700+/sq. ft requires.
 
But developing a new brand is a lot riskier than simply hiring a management company such as a Ritz Carlton or Trump. The partners know that getting a customer to commit to an overpriced Red Bull or two is one thing. Selling condos that will go from more than $300,000 to over $1.5 million will prove more difficult.

...

As an investment, I would choose an established brand rather than run the risk but I am conservative. I am sure there is a target audience for this, I just don't know if they are the well healed financial group that $700+/sq. ft requires.


their buyers are probably their current customers ... you know, the ones paying the overpriced Red Bull.
b/c for those people, image is everything ... even though they don't have the income to support it.
 
mortgage rates crossing my desk

3 yr fixed 2.90

5 yr fixed 3.89

Bank of Canada hiked 50 to 2.75 causes a panic intially and fixed surged, it was a trap, now we are the looking at same discounted fixed as spring 2010 before the hikes.
 
Mortgage rates are not directly set by the Bank of Canada. The bond market responded to the somewhat better economic condition of Canada in anticipation of inflation and hence mortgage rates increased. Remember, the BOC prime purpose is to control inflation with a view to other issues. If anything, the bubble concern in the R/E market would have suggested they increase rates.
The trap you refer to is a reflection of the Bond Market concluding things are not looking up in the mid term and even longer term right now and hence willing to accept lower returns.
This is not a good sign in my view George, rather a sign of a weakening economy or prospects at least for this.
True it means one can continue to finance real estate at a cheaper rate but all this does is prolong the day of reckoning and if in fact prices of R/E do increase (which I don't believe they will), it will simply result in a larger problem when/if there is a correction.
 
mortgage rates crossing my desk

3 yr fixed 2.90

5 yr fixed 3.89

Bank of Canada hiked 50 to 2.75 causes a panic intially and fixed surged, it was a trap, now we are the looking at same discounted fixed as spring 2010 before the hikes.

Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 3/4 per cent, not 2.75

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/fixed-dates/2010/rate_200710.html

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent.

The global economic recovery is proceeding but is not yet self-sustaining. Greater emphasis on balance sheet repair by households, banks, and governments in a number of advanced economies is expected to temper the pace of global growth relative to the Bank's outlook in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). While the policy response to the European sovereign debt crisis has reduced the risk of an adverse outcome and increased the prospect of sustainable long term growth, it is expected to slow the global recovery over the projection horizon. In the United States, private demand is picking up but remains uneven.

Economic activity in Canada is unfolding largely as expected, led by government and consumer spending. Housing activity is declining markedly from high levels, consistent with the Bank's view that policy stimulus resulted in household expenditures being brought forward into late 2009 and early 2010. While employment growth has resumed, business investment appears to be held back by global uncertainties and has yet to recover from its sharp contraction during the recession.

The Bank expects the economic recovery in Canada to be more gradual than it had projected in its April MPR, with growth of 3.5 per cent in 2010, 2.9 per cent in 2011, and 2.2 per cent in 2012. This revision reflects a slightly weaker profile for global economic growth and more modest consumption growth in Canada. The Bank anticipates that business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth.

Inflation in Canada has been broadly in line with the Bank's April projection. While the Bank now expects the economy to return to full capacity at the end of 2011, two quarters later than had been anticipated in April, the underlying dynamics for inflation are little changed. Both total CPI and core inflation are expected to remain near 2 per cent throughout the projection period. The Bank will look through the transitory effects on inflation of changes to provincial indirect taxes.

Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to raise the target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent. This decision leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in light of the significant excess supply in Canada, the strength of domestic spending, and the uneven global recovery.

Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook, any further reduction of monetary stimulus would have to be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.

Information note:
A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 22 July 2010. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 8 September 2010.

....

as interested said, fixed term mortgage rates are set by long-term bond rates.
if bond rates are low, that means people are concerned about the economy and buyers want safety of bonds so that depresses rates.

the BoC overnight rate would be relevant to someone with a variable rate mortgage.

please tell us that you don't offer financial advice to your clients
 
Some Fun Bubble Quotes

I'm sure Condo George was referring to the Prime Rate. I bet Condo George will morph into Mortgage George when the condo market inevitably corrects, :D

Home Sweet Home

“The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.†– David Lereah – Chief Economist for National Association of Realtors – 2005

“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.†– Ben Bernanke – 2005

“House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic fundamentals.â - Ben Bernanke – 2005
 
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