Baby, we got a bubble!?

[lenaitch]

Truly? I have several mates who’ve in their early 30s left Toronto for Atlantic Canada. My neighbour‘s son just graduated medical school and has taken a doctor position in Sudbury. Your money goes a lot further in the sticks.

I think you’re right there. Interest rate hikes are going to tear a hole into the values of more distant yet still GTA homes outside of Toronto.

I suppose it's relative to what you are used to. To a Torontonian, NS prices are still a steal; to locals, they are off the dial.

I think everyplace will see an adjustment, but one thing that will keep prices high in some places in Southern Ontario is whether they remain practical as bedroom communities to the GTA. GO commuter service will impact that. Barrie prices were climbing rapidly long before Covid.

 

[kEiThZ]

Again. The OECD says we will be last in economy growth for the next 40 years. Look up the countries in the OECD. Take in the implications of that projection.

Anybody who says it'll all work out is in for a rude awakening. We're in for some real trouble. But that's neither here nor there on our bubble.... We can keep that propped up while impoverishing more young people forever.

 

[evandyk]

Interest rate hikes may reduce some prices, but they aren't going to improve affordability. And places like Guelph, Peterborough and Kitchener are never going back to the old days in terms of affordability, just because it's easily workable to commute from there to Toronto for 1 or 2 days a week, even if you would never want to do it every day.

But somehow, the fact that all of these people want to live in those cities when they still work in Toronto has had no cooling effect on Toronto prices...

 

[Admiral Beez]

Again. The OECD says we will be last in economy growth for the next 40 years. Look up the countries in the OECD. Take in the implications of that projection.

I got my kids British passports and am encouraging them both to consider doing their masters or post-grad in the UK so to gain an international perspective on their opportunities. I’d miss them if they moved out of the GTA or Canada entirely, but heck, more reasons to travel and visit.

 

[evandyk]

Whatever you think about Canada, the UK is not exactly the model for a future dynamic economy...

 

[kEiThZ]

Whatever you think about Canada, the UK is not exactly the model for a future dynamic economy...

Exactly. The Economist is running a year long series on their economic problems. That said a British education can be useful.

 

[evandyk]

I did an exchange in South Africa, and I think any foreign educational experience is valuable, but I wouldn't be suggesting my kid try to build a career in the UK over Canada right now. Luckily my kid is only 3 so I have a few years to think about it!

 

[afransen]

Again. The OECD says we will be last in economy growth for the next 40 years. Look up the countries in the OECD. Take in the implications of that projection.

Anybody who says it'll all work out is in for a rude awakening. We're in for some real trouble. But that's neither here nor there on our bubble.... We can keep that propped up while impoverishing more young people forever.

With interest rates rising as fast as they are, the housing market is going to get very weak. With the massive mortgages many are carrying at variable rates, a lot of cash is going to be hoovered out of the economy. With the softness in prices, I suspect a lot of pre-construction condos will start to back up as the premiums over the resale market become untenable.

 

[afransen]

Again. The OECD says we will be last in economy growth for the next 40 years. Look up the countries in the OECD. Take in the implications of that projection.

Anybody who says it'll all work out is in for a rude awakening. We're in for some real trouble. But that's neither here nor there on our bubble.... We can keep that propped up while impoverishing more young people forever.

I find that a bit incredible. Is it per capita growth? Canada has robust population growth, while many OECD members are shrinking.

I can see oil & gas being a big overhang for Canada as that industry basically needs to shrink away to nothing if the world achieves its GHG emission reduction goals.

 

[kEiThZ]

I find that a bit incredible. Is it per capita growth? Canada has robust population growth, while many OECD members are shrinking.

Good summary and analysis here:

OECD predicts Canada will be the worst performing advanced economy over the next decade…and the three decades after that - Business Council of British Columbia

Ottawa’s economic growth strategy rests on four shaky pillars: accommodative monetary policy to support interest-sensitive sectors of the economy like credit, housing investment, and durable goods consumption; expansive fiscal policy guided by short-term "guardrails" and lacking a long-term...

bcbc.com

Key quotes:

The OECD finds that Canada’s prospects for real per capita GDP growth over 2020-2030 are poor because of feeble expected growth in output per hour worked (labour productivity, see Figure 1b) and a slight drag from hours worked per head of population (labour utilization, see Figure 1c)

In essence, as we are primarily a resource, real estate and services economy, our productivity growth is stagnating. And with it, economic growth. This will then cause stagnation in real wage growth, relative to other OECD countries.

 

[Undead]

I can see oil & gas being a big overhang for Canada as that industry basically needs to shrink away to nothing if the world achieves its GHG emission reduction goals.

That type of thinking has already led to the energy and cost of living crisis we're facing. And no, renewables are not the way either. The real solution is nuclear but the environmentalists have done a number on nuclear since the 70s.

I find that a bit incredible. Is it per capita growth? Canada has robust population growth, while many OECD members are shrinking.

I think it's well established that Canada's population growth policies, while ensuring nominal and continuous growth, make the growth of a lower quality. Essentially, we're growing the base, but the same policies dilute the per capita gains.

@kEiThZ has a good source. It's becoming clear that our housing bubble has decapitalized the economy and wasted resources that could have been invested in the economy's productive capacities. IIRC, real estate investment comprised half of ALL investment in the Canadian economy last year. Absolute lunacy enabled by a decade of low interest rates and housing speculation thanks to awful government policies.

 

[evandyk]

IIRC, real estate investment comprised half of ALL investment in the Canadian economy last year.

And it hardly got us any additional housing units, other than one bedroom apartments.

 

[kEiThZ]

And it hardly got us any additional housing units, other than one bedroom apartments.

Because developers tailored most of their supply to investors. Not homebuyers.

 

[afransen]

That type of thinking has already led to the energy and cost of living crisis we're facing. And no, renewables are not the way either. The real solution is nuclear but the environmentalists have done a number on nuclear since the 70s.

I think it's well established that Canada's population growth policies, while ensuring nominal and continuous growth, make the growth of a lower quality. Essentially, we're growing the base, but the same policies dilute the per capita gains.

@kEiThZ has a good source. It's becoming clear that our housing bubble has decapitalized the economy and wasted resources that could have been invested in the economy's productive capacities. IIRC, real estate investment comprised half of ALL investment in the Canadian economy last year. Absolute lunacy enabled by a decade of low interest rates and housing speculation thanks to awful government policies.

Ontario doesn't seem unwilling to invest in nuclear. It's pretty popular in Ontario is the backbone of our generation. I think any slowdown in investment is less environmental concerns and more our failure to deliver projects economically.

 

[slickpete83]

you know the bubble is bursting when the premier of Ontario starts selling his house , maybe his mortgage payments went up too much jk.....
next Tory will sell his condo downtown lol..

Doug Ford's house just hit market for $3.2 million

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is moving and his Toronto house has hit the market for $3.2 million.

www.cp24.com