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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Me either, especially when I was looking for rentals for my daughter. We found far more listings off MLS than on.
 
Migos said:
How could Urbanation possibly gather that data? I would love to see the citation and methodology.
Click to expand...

They know how many total condos are leased via CMHC's annual survey. They know how many units are leased through MLS annually. They have a general idea of the turnover time (or average duration of rental stay) by looking at "same unit" transactions on MLS. And they made a guess.

It's not rocket science.
 
BMyers said:
They know how many total condos are leased via CMHC's annual survey. They know how many units are leased through MLS annually. They have a general idea of the turnover time (or average duration of rental stay) by looking at "same unit" transactions on MLS. And they made a guess.

It's not rocket science.
Click to expand...

Suuuuuure... automated telephone surveys to small samples and guesses. Very accurate. :rolleyes:
 
PinkLucy said:
Families living in condos is happening. That's why new schools are going in in City Place. The backyard, white picket fence and a dog is a North American thing, and it's changing. There are a number of young families in Liberty Village, for example, as well as City Place. Go to any of the parks around these new residential neighbourhoods. There are lots of kids and families.
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I think it is only a matter of time before we see more kids in downtown condos with rising low-rise house prices, inadequate transit and congested highways. But the city needs more daycare facilities, and more kid-friendly amenities. Hopefully my fellow developers begin to add these features to projects.

https://www.reminetwork.com/articles/2016-the-year-of-kids-in-condos/
 
Migos said:
Are you going to have 2 or 3 cars in the condo parking lot so the kids can get to their various activities and errands can be run? There's not even 1 spot per condo unit in most buildings
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I live in a single family home with a backyard in central Toronto, surrounded by houses with lots of families with kids. That "2 or 3 cars" reference doesn't even describe my neighbourhood, where a number of families with kids don't even have one car. Half the houses don't even have a parking spot.

Trust me, of all the issues involved in families living in condos, the lack of parking for "2 or 3 cars" is not one of them. Nobody is expecting half of Ajax to suddenly move into downtown condos, wondering what they will do with all their minivans.
 
BMyers said:
They know how many total condos are leased via CMHC's annual survey. They know how many units are leased through MLS annually. They have a general idea of the turnover time (or average duration of rental stay) by looking at "same unit" transactions on MLS. And they made a guess.
Click to expand...

I'm struggling to find the CMHC report on condo units. The "Condominium Owners Report" only gives information as %ages, and then only for people who own secondary units. They do not tell us what %age of the overall market is secondary units.

There is tons of stuff on rental buildings (even tiny 2 and 3 unit ones), houses, duplexes, townhouses but I've not yet found the report with privately listed condominium units. The closest number I found is "Privately Initiated Rental Apartments by Size of Structure" - "Under 6 units": 10,400 units in Toronto. So that's not it; it's clearly small multi-suite houses.

So, I'm still uncertain how many condo units are leased in the GTA. I know this number for my building (where the landlord has bothered to tell management) but I doubt that is representative of the overall market.
 
rbt said:
I'm struggling to find the CMHC report on condo units. The "Condominium Owners Report" only gives information as %ages, and then only for people who own secondary units. They do not tell us what %age of the overall market is secondary units.
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Rental Market Report - October 2015
Table 4.3.1

GTA condo universe: 349,503
Total units leased: 105,317

MLS units leased in 2015: 27,000

If you assume the average tenant stays for three years, that assumes MLS accounts for about 81,000 (27K x 3) of the 105,000 that are leased through MLS
 
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BMyers said:
Rental Market Report - October 2015
Table 4.3.1

GTA condo universe: 349,503
Total units leased: 105,317

MLS units leased in 2015: 27,000

If you assume the average tenant stays for three years, that assumes MLS accounts for about 81,000 (27K x 3) of the 105,000 that are leased through MLS
Click to expand...

Thanks!
 
I was at an open house today in west lansing. Went to see a 1.2 million listed single detached home. It was a very attractive home for the listing price which in the end was just a marketing gimmick. You see they list these homes at low prices to get more and more bidders and the result is the closing price usually gets up to 150% of the listing price. The broker had sold a home up the street for 990k just 20 days ago for a final closing price of 1.48 million. No matter what happens to the Canadian economy it seems that housing keeps getting hotter and hotter. They expected the home I was looking at to end up selling for 1.68 million.

Bad Canadian economy? Just means a lower dollar, which encourages foreign buyers. Just means banks keep rates low or lower, encouraging buyers to buy more.
Good Canadian economy? Just means domestic buyers buy more. Theres seems to be no end in sight for the rising prices of these homes, especially to young adults.

However:

Vancouver homes have risen so much the Chinese are looking more and more into Toronto. So there is a ceiling for this madness which I feel (after looking at most similar Richmond properties) is around 2.2 mil for the home I looked at today which translates to around 25-30% more to go (closing price that is). Believable? It does not seem so however if you told me 5 years ago that a 700k home in Richmond Hill would be 1.6 mil today I would had chuckled. A lot is uncertain.

Given current real estate appreciation rates in Toronto we have around 2-3 years to go in west lansing if I am correct. When this is reached, will the speculators start selling?

On China:

The trend in Chinese business right now is to make as much money as you can in the mainland and get the hell out before the government makes up an excuse to take it or before you get stomach cancer from the carcinogen laden food. So whether Chinese economy gets better or worse, there will still be a huge want of getting your money out of China. So if a ceiling is actually met in Toronto they will proceed to move their money more north like Vaughan, or to another province, or to another country.

This is not the first time a supposed bubble was caused by foreign buyers. When HK was handed back to the mainland, HK citizens began immigrating to Toronto and Vancouver, buying houses and raising their prices. However when it was more obvious China was not going to interfere too much into HK many sold their homes here and went back, causing a price drop.

In the HK example it was confidence in the stability of their mother country that lead to them moving money back into HK and causing house prices to drop in Toronto and Vancouver. Will we see the same with China and the current Canadian real estate situation? Where China's economy recovers and they successfully pull off a domestic economy which allows them to self-sustain thus increasing confidence in their stability and pulling a bit of Chinese money back? A lot is uncertain.

And its not only Chinese money, just most of it is. A lot of Middle Easterners and East Europeans escaping war and corrupt government are proping up the RE prices here too.

Just my 2 cents.

Update: The house sold for 1.8 million...
 
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