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Baby, we got a bubble!?

TheKingEast said:
This is why we gave up looking for a house in Leslieville/Riverdale that wasn't an absolute dump and got a big condo. We just couldn't deal with the sky high demand and competing with crazy bidders willing to overbid for everything and driving up the market.

We should have bought last spring/summer. Prices were better and the quality of homes were superior.
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I've been seeing very little inventory in the single family home market, although once March swings around and the weather gets a little nicer, I'd anticipate more listings. It's funny because some of the listings I see out now are, as TheKingEast pointed out, not all that great. Sellers may think that because there's little on the market right now that buyers will rush out in droves to overpay for whatever's available now, I don't think it's currently happening across the board. I think come March, there will be more supply but the homes that will go first will be the nicer ones...and they will go for higher and higher prices. The 'not so good' listings will eventually sell, of course, but at a lower price and after all the good properties are gone.

I believe for single family detached homes, the sweet spot will be $700k and under, where they'll continue to draw multiple bids and lots of buyer interest.

For condo units, I'd say the key price range would be $400k. Under that figure, I'd still expect healthy interest from buyers.
 
Interesting article about some of the other real estate markets in Canada: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ith-surplus-of-unsold-condos/article23165014/

Intersting tidbits:
-1/3rd of buyers in Quebec in 2011/2012 used the 30 year amortization
-40% of Montreal buyers used the 30 year amortization
-20 condo sellers for every buyer in downtown Montreal & Quebec City
-Gatineau condo prices have fallen 14%

Seems like outside of Toronto & Vancouver it's already a buyer's market.
 
Per MLS, for sale or for rent:

101 Peter: 115/429 units = 27%
8 Mercer: 54/415 units = 13%
180 University: 47/370 units = 13%
21 Widmer: 53/444 units = 12%
352 Front: 56/458 units = 12%
295 Adelaide: 37/564 units = 7%

Seems like plenty of options out there for renters/buyers. I wonder how much inventory there is if you include non-MLS sources like Kijiji, CL, etc.

Any thoughts on these stats? Is it typical of Toronto condos to have these levels of units for sale/rent?
 
Migos said:
Per MLS, for sale or for rent:

101 Peter: 115/429 units = 27%
8 Mercer: 54/415 units = 13%
180 University: 47/370 units = 13%
21 Widmer: 53/444 units = 12%
352 Front: 56/458 units = 12%
295 Adelaide: 37/564 units = 7%

Seems like plenty of options out there for renters/buyers. I wonder how much inventory there is if you include non-MLS sources like Kijiji, CL, etc.

Any thoughts on these stats? Is it typical of Toronto condos to have these levels of units for sale/rent?
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Yawn...we're in dead winter. 8 Mercer is going be a great building. Best finishes out of that list(Cept Shangri-La #1 Favorite building in the city for me). Watch by May and that list will disappear.
 
RZ12 said:
Yawn...we're in dead winter. 8 Mercer is going be a great building. Best finishes out of that list(Cept Shangri-La #1 Favorite building in the city for me). Watch by May and that list will disappear.
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Do you think sellers and landlords are holding off listing until spring as well? Perhaps all these units will be absorbed just to be replaced with fresh spring listings. Just a thought.
 
RZ12 said:
Why wait for cash flow when you could get it now?
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I was thinking more in terms of sellers rather than landlords. I could also see how it isn't attractive to list your condo for rent in winter when maybe the building is still under construction, the weather is crap, and there are 80 other units you are competing against.

Think if you're a landlord at 101 Peter right now. What leverage do you have when there are 90 units the same as your available for rent? Perhaps they are waiting for your prediction of many of these units being absorbed before listing to try to get a better price or tenant.
 
Migos said:
I was thinking more in terms of sellers rather than landlords. I could also see how it isn't attractive to list your condo for rent in winter when maybe the building is still under construction, the weather is crap, and there are 80 other units you are competing against.

Think if you're a landlord at 101 Peter right now. What leverage do you have when there are 90 units the same as your available for rent? Perhaps they are waiting for your prediction of many of these units being absorbed before listing to try to get a better price or tenant.
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Flipping condo days are long gone. These units are meant for rentals. Entertainment District still slowly shedding the clubbing district vibe and more mix community.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Which outside of Canada/USA is very common. I travel to Germany quite a bit, and nearly everyone rents there. My good friend is a doctor in Bavaria and says he'll likely never buy a house there, everyone rents, except for the corps or Nabobs that own all the property of course.
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Tenant rights are also much stronger in Germany, making renting more attractive.
 
James said:
I've been seeing very little inventory in the single family home market, although once March swings around and the weather gets a little nicer, I'd anticipate more listings. It's funny because some of the listings I see out now are, as TheKingEast pointed out, not all that great. Sellers may think that because there's little on the market right now that buyers will rush out in droves to overpay for whatever's available now, I don't think it's currently happening across the board. I think come March, there will be more supply but the homes that will go first will be the nicer ones...and they will go for higher and higher prices. The 'not so good' listings will eventually sell, of course, but at a lower price and after all the good properties are gone.
Click to expand...
Traditionally, sellers of SFHs are taught the cold winter months are the worst time to sell, because demand is low, and consequently prices tend to be low, even when there is lowish inventory. Whether that's still true or not in 2015 is a different story though.

I believe for single family detached homes, the sweet spot will be $700k and under, where they'll continue to draw multiple bids and lots of buyer interest.
Click to expand...
Depends on the neighhourhood though of course. In many neighbourhoods, $700000 won't even get you a teardown. A $850000 teardown in many parts of central Toronto would be a low price, and would create a multiple bid situation.
 
nrb said:
Tenant rights are also much stronger in Germany, making renting more attractive.
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Stronger than Ontario? I don't know anything about tenant rights in Germany but it's hard to believe a system more slanted in favour of the tenant than Ontario.
 
Migos said:
Stronger than Ontario? I don't know anything about tenant rights in Germany but it's hard to believe a system more slanted in favour of the tenant than Ontario.
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This is a well-known and often discussed issue amongst investors and landlords. Given this information, it's surprising the tenancy rates aren't even higher.
 
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