News   Dec 20, 2024
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News   Dec 20, 2024
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Baby, we got a bubble!?

The amount of condo supply coming online in the next 1-2 years is insane. It will be interesting to see how these units are absorbed. The rental market is already weakening and hardly any supply has hit occupancy.

Look at MLS for rentals at projects like Ice, L Tower, and 400 Adelaide. Tons of units available for rent already, with more coming as more and more units hit occupancy. It's going to be a renter's market for these new builds as there will be 10s of units available for rent and landlords anxious to make their mortgage payments.

Remember that December is considered slowest time of the year for rentals/real estate. Been less than 3 weeks since you wrote this. Ice Condos MLS listing dropped by 40 to 50. Other 2 buildings also cut in half in listings.

Units are absorbed like hot cakes. New Building on King St(224 Theatre Park) just started occupying and all out construction zone leased one there as well very quickly. Been busiest December I've seen in recent years. My personal best. 2015 looking to be a great start.
 
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Remember that December is considered slowest time of the year for rentals/real estate. Been less than 3 weeks since you wrote this. Ice Condos MLS listing dropped by 40 to 50. Other 2 buildings also cut in half in listings.

Units are absorbed like hot cakes. New Building on King St(224 Theatre Park) just started occupying and all out construction zone leased one there as well very quickly. Been busiest December I've seen in recent years. My personal best. 2015 looking to be a great start.

50 units for rent on Ice (on MLS). 44 units for rent in L Tower and another 42 for rent in Waterlink at Pier 27
 
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and???????

I wouldn't want to compete with 49 other landlords to try to find a good tenant, especially as rental prices are already declining. Add this to the fact that there are a record 478 active projects (50,000+ units) under way across the GTA, many of them high-rise condo towers. Like Ice, L Tower, etc, these towers are filled with investor units. We’ll see how it all plays out…
 
I wouldn't want to compete with 49 other landlords to try to find a good tenant, especially as rental prices are already declining. Add this to the fact that there are a record 478 active projects (50,000+ units) under way across the GTA, many of them high-rise condo towers. Like Ice, L Tower, etc, these towers are filled with investor units. We’ll see how it all plays out…

Why are you comparing GTA with the downtown core? These landlords aren't hurting they're all paying occupancy fees which cover the rent easily.

Yes a lot of areas in the GTA make no sense to purchase a condo in.

But I don't understand how people think they are obligated to live in a construction Zone with no amenities for half the year+ on your one year lease term. It's actually scary how many are renting that way because of how low good inventory is.

One bedrooms are getting close to hitting $1750 on average in the core.
 
These landlords aren't hurting they're all paying occupancy fees which cover the rent easily.

This statement makes no sense.

One bedrooms are getting close to hitting $1750 on average in the core.

Rents have been growing at less than inflation, even in the downtown core. Overall 1-bedroom rents actually decreased 2013 to 2014 (Q3).

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/rental_reports/pdf/rental_report_Q3-2014.pdf
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/rental_reports/pdf/rental_report_Q3-2013.pdf

Even with the lack of supply, rents are hardly increasing. What is going to happen when this massive glut of supply hits the market over the next 2 years? As RT2020 points out, it will be even worse for landlords since they're competing against each other on extremely similar product (i.e. race to the bottom on price and price only). It's easy for a renter to walk into L Tower and low ball since there are tens of other similar units available. Once a landlord pays a few months carrying costs with no rental income, they will be quite motivated to rent or sell at some price.
 
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This statement makes no sense.



Rents have been growing at less than inflation, even in the downtown core. Overall 1-bedroom rents actually decreased 2013 to 2014 (Q3).

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/rental_reports/pdf/rental_report_Q3-2014.pdf
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/rental_reports/pdf/rental_report_Q3-2013.pdf

Even with the lack of supply, rents are hardly increasing. What is going to happen when this massive glut of supply hits the market over the next 2 years? As RT2020 points out, it will be even worse for landlords since they're competing against each other on extremely similar product (i.e. race to the bottom on price and price only). It's easy for a renter to walk into L Tower and low ball since there are tens of other similar units available. Once a landlord pays a few months carrying costs with no rental income, they will be quite motivated to rent or sell at some price.

I still don't understand how any of this has to do with a completed building? They'll be barely any inventory on a finished product.
 
I still don't understand how any of this has to do with a completed building? They'll be barely any inventory on a finished product.

Cinema Tower – 28 units for rent
Pinnacle on Adelaide – 52 units for rent
Parade City Place – 49 units for rent

Aren't these completed buildings?

Seems like most condos built in the core built over the last few years as about 15-20 units available for rent. These are just MLS listings.
 
Cinema Tower – 28 units for rent
Pinnacle on Adelaide – 52 units for rent
Parade City Place – 49 units for rent

Aren't these completed buildings?

Seems like most condos built in the core built over the last few years as about 15-20 units available for rent. These are just MLS listings.

They're all newer buildings though. You see this with any newer built condos.

You'll see a decent amount of activity for the first few years.

Why not post the condos that have little to no activity?
 
I think the fact that there's so many units available, there's just a lot of competition and may itself bring down the rent. The real question is whether or not there's really that much demand for rentals given the inventory? Personally, I'd wouldn't rent in the newer (closet) places because there are plenty of other good places out there - and probably cheaper.
 
Cinema Tower – 28 units for rent
Pinnacle on Adelaide – 52 units for rent
Parade City Place – 49 units for rent

Aren't these completed buildings?

Seems like most condos built in the core built over the last few years as about 15-20 units available for rent. These are just MLS listings.

pinnacle isn't finished . The other two were just down right awful investments from the gecko. Try buildings like 8 Charlotte , Fashion House, Reve, even 300 Front and there isn't much at all in those.
 
Considering rents increased in the core 20 percent, if not more since 2012 does not mean there will be a downturn. If rents are increasing at a lower rate than inflation, well....that is not a bad thing. On the flip side, there is always a correlation with rental/resale market The condo resale market this year has eclipsed the numbers we saw in the peak of 2012. More renters are turning into buyers again. This will be the cycle we see from now on in downtown. Rent will be flat again for the next year or so, while resale will continue to move forward. As long as there are close to 30,000 people moving to the core every year there is no concern to "overbuilding."
 
Considering rents increased in the core 20 percent, if not more since 2012 does not mean there will be a downturn. If rents are increasing at a lower rate than inflation, well....that is not a bad thing. On the flip side, there is always a correlation with rental/resale market The condo resale market this year has eclipsed the numbers we saw in the peak of 2012. More renters are turning into buyers again. This will be the cycle we see from now on in downtown. Rent will be flat again for the next year or so, while resale will continue to move forward. As long as there are close to 30,000 people moving to the core every year there is no concern to "overbuilding."

Rents increased 20% or more since 2012? Little too much Christmas liquor tonight?
 

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