Toronto is on track to see a record number of house sales this year as demand — and prices — continue to climb beyond almost anyone’s expectations, even for condos.
More than 8,000 homes sold across the GTA in September, bringing the number of transactions up almost 11 per cent for the first three quarters of 2014 compared to the same period last year, according to figures released by the Toronto Real Estate Board Friday.
Prices were up 8.5 per cent for the same period, year over year, with the average year-to-date price, for houses and condos combined, hitting $563,813, says TREB.
“If the current pace of sales growth remains in place, we could be flirting with a new record for residential sales reported by TREB members this year,” says TREB’s director of market analysis, Jason Mercer.
Sales have been especially strong in the sector that, just a year or so ago, was widely seen as being oversupplied and at risk of a price slump — condominiums.
The continued, unrelenting climb of Toronto prices — to the point where price growth here, as well as in Vancouver and Calgary, are skewing the national average — has renewed some calls for Ottawa to push up interest rates to slow down housing demand.
That could be an even more dangerous move, says Capital Economics economist David Madani in a note released Friday, given the high levels of household debt in the country.
House prices have already started to drop in Ottawa, Montreal and Halifax, he points out. And he anticipates that “demand fatigue” will spread over time to Canada’s major housing markets, as well.
Yet the Toronto housing numbers continue to defy the naysayers.
With the average sale price of detached homes in the City of Toronto now almost $1 million and intense competition for semis driving prices into the stratosphere, condos are now the go-to form of relatively affordable housing for folks just trying to get a toehold in a market that, so far at least, shows no signs of slowing.
Resale condo transactions were up 20.2 per cent in September over the same month of 2013, according to TREB’s figures. Most of the growth, some 32.2 per cent, was in the 905 regions compared to a 15.6 per cent increase in sales year-over-year in the 416 region.
Prices were up an average of 7.1 per cent — 9.2 per cent in the City of Toronto compared to 3.5 per cent in the 905 regions, says TREB.
That means the average sale price of a condo in the 416 is now skirting $400,000 — $395,505 — while it’s climbed just past $300,000 in the 905 regions.
The house sector continues to be plagued by a shortage of listings, especially in some high-demand areas of the City of Toronto, notes TREB.
That has helped push detached house prices up, yet again, by 11.5 per cent in the city and 8 per cent in the suburbs. That brought the average sale price for a detached to $951,792 in Toronto and $656,003 in the 905 regions in September.
Sales for detached homes were up 7.6 per cent across the GTA — 10.6 per cent in the city and 6.5 per cent in the suburbs.
Semi-detached house sales climbed 11.5 per cent in September, year over year, as prices hit an average $689,414 in the 416 region and $447,485 in the 905 regions.
Townhouse sales were up 7.2 per cent year over year with September sale prices averaging $476,408 in the 416 region and $409,327 in the 905 regions.
