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Baby, we got a bubble!?

nrb said:
Question is, given the known softening conditions of the market, can the market absorb an over 100% increase in completions in 2014/15?
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It already did, years ago. Only a fraction of those units being built are unsold. It's very difficult to back out of a contract to buy in Ontario.

Now, whether those investors will get fleeced on resale is different but most take a few years to unload their units. If vacancy rates are relatively low in 2017 through 2020, they'll be fine.

What you won't see is any major developer bankruptcies even in the event of a major price crash.
 
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rbt said:
It already did, years ago. Only a fraction of those units being built are unsold. It's very difficult to back out of a contract to buy in Ontario.

Now, whether those investors will get fleeced on resale is different but most take a few years to unload their units. If vacancy rates are relatively low in 2017 through 2020, they'll be fine.

What you won't see is any major developer bankruptcies even in the event of a major price crash.
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18,000+ unsold units and climbing. IIRC that's a record. Consider:

-tighter mortgage rules
-all time high price levels
-the elimination of the Investor Program in Canada


Now tell me please how all those $600 psf condos are going to be absorbed. Will it be the typical Canadian immigrant of modest means who just happens to have $100,000 in his bank account and a perfect credit score? I don't think so.

I agree you won't see developer bankruptcy widespread but you will find many developers shutting down their businesses. With big fixed overhead and a fraction of the sales pre 2012 how will they all covert their expenses?
 
CN Tower said:
18,000+ unsold units and climbing. IIRC that's a record. Consider:

-tighter mortgage rules
-all time high price levels
-the elimination of the Investor Program in Canada


Now tell me please how all those $600 psf condos are going to be absorbed. Will it be the typical Canadian immigrant of modest means who just happens to have $100,000 in his bank account and a perfect credit score? I don't think so.

I agree you won't see developer bankruptcy widespread but you will find many developers shutting down their businesses. With big fixed overhead and a fraction of the sales pre 2012 how will they all covert their expenses?
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People still have to live somewhere. I think the rental market will be strong for the foreseeable future. That will help keep the condo market where it is. I don't see any major problems.
 
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I agree.. People definately need a place to live
Because of population growth from now until 2036, the Gta will need 35-40% more residential dwellings than it has now.
 
TorontoMike$$ said:
+16% increase in sales for 416 condos! +5% prices what is more interesting is townhomes +27% in prices!

There is now a large gap of about 200k between average price of a condo and average price of a townhouse in 416.. look for sharp increases in condos..

http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...market_updates/news2014/nr_mid_month_0214.htm
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Good ladies and gentlemen of the forum,

Please ignore this buffoonish troll with his shill statistics and pay attention and to the real numbers:

According to a report by RealNet Canada Inc., the number of new condos sold in the Greater Toronto Area in August 2013 sat at 633, an 18% drop year over year from sales of 777 in August 2012. RealNet’s data indicated that it’s the poorest August showing for new condos in a decade. Sales of high rise dwellings have dropped over 30% year over year from an eight-month period between January and August 2013, in comparison to the same time frame in 2012.
realnet condo

Courtesy RealNet

The remaining inventory of condos in the GTA has also been steadily rising over the past five years. According to RealNet’s data, in August 2013, the “remaining inventory†of high rise dwellings in the GTA sat at over 21,000 condos, up from less than 15,000 in August 2009. Remaining inventory include unsold units that are either completed, under construction, or in pre-construction mode.
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Oh CN. No wonder you are misguided, you are still looking at early 2013 stats! Please go out and educate yourself on how the market has changed since then and only then can you provide some value here. The link I forwarded was from TREB and was released today for this months performance... NOT outdated facts.
 
There have been several new condo releases this year - YC, Yonge Dundas, another one in the Church corridor area. Just the sales volumes from new releases this year have so far decimated numbers for the same period last year.
 
TorontoMike$$ said:
There have been several new condo releases this year - YC, Yonge Dundas, another one in the Church corridor area. Just the sales volumes from new releases this year have so far decimated numbers for the same period last year.
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God you're an ignorant person. I hope it's only your own money that you're wasting and not your family's.
 
Why wouldn't you believe someone with not just one, but TWO dollar signs in their very name? Posting in a financial bubble thread? I'd have to be crazy..
 
nrb said:
Why wouldn't you believe someone with not just one, but TWO dollar signs in their very name? Posting in a financial bubble thread? I'd have to be crazy..
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nrb:

I quite agree. The second $ adds immense credibility to his cause.

CN Tower
 
1930's pricing coming soon guys.. eyeroll
Best of luck with your portfolio.. 8% a year is the average gain from 1964-2013 according to TREB. See you next year when your another 8% behind.
 
Using your logic it appears that in 50 years the average home price in Toronto will be about $28 million. I wonder what the price to income ratios will be like then.
 
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