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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
CN Tower
Banned
We know that one of the more deplorable realtor tricks is taking a stale listing off the market, relisting it a month later, selling it quickly at a reduced price, and then boldly proclaiming "SOLD IN 1 WEEK AT FULL ASKING PRICE!"
However, what you're suggesting is somewhat different. Are you accusing TREB of fraudulently misrepresenting actual sales & listing data to suit their agenda of market stability and strength?
Considering the obviously massive amounts of spare time that you have, why don't you try and assemble a coherent argument for this assertion and if you're correct I'm sure the media would jump all over it.
As a sidebar, as much as I dislike realtor tactics I tend to think that their data is accurate & that you're nothing but an overZealous housing market observer on the outside looking in with rabid jealousy & revulsion at not being included in the festivities.
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pf4redflag
Banned
CN Tower hit the nail in the head.
recharts
Banned
http://theeconomicanalyst.com/content/treb-taking-page-nar
This is one example that I could easily find
If you search the net for Canadian Watchdog's posts, (he posts many of them on Garth's blog) or if you search Garth's posts
you will find lots of examples.
As for my time, I advise you to keep your mouth shout and this goes for others around here, think and use your head for other things than hitting the nails with it or I am going to ignore stupid or unfounded questions.
daveto
Active Member
Isn't there a forum rule about one person posting under multiple accounts?
Who is the moderator for the forum, and how do we contact them?
Who is the moderator for the forum, and how do we contact them?
recharts
Banned
I hope you realize that, assuming that I am the original pf4redflag, this "other" pf4redflag is someone who landed here to flame the discussions.
Since the new guy is not posting anything but flame baits he or she should be banned.
You are right, this second account of mine should be blocked. Just lock it so no other joker can assume that name. I asked him to explain a couple of things about his presence here and he could not.
KA1
Senior Member
Daveto, In the past you and I have had difference of opinion about the future of R/E makret. However, as you have said in an earlier post, in relation to recharts we are on the same side.
Mod is Interchange 42. Perhaps, he could be searched and sent a pm.
Beyond that, as CDR108 had suggested in an earlier post, hit the 'ignore' button. Do not comment, in any shape or manner, on his posts. Ignore them with all the contempt they deserve. Sooner or later, recharts will get tired of his monologues.
Hopefully, that will work.
azureray
Active Member
This is true reality of Toronto.
Toronto faces a dynamic and uncertain decade in which population shifts and economic change will put continued pressures on the City’s ability
to provide housing opportunity for all.
Over the next decade, Toronto will grow by a net total of 130,000 people to reach a population of 2.8 million by 2020.
This includes:
• up to one million immigrants arriving in the city from every corner of the world
• 100,000 young people entering Toronto’s housing market for the first time
• 80,000 residents entering their senior years
• the migration of many current residents, particularly families, out of Toronto and into the surrounding region and beyond.
Shifting economic and demographic trends will place a strong demand on the full range of housing opportunities available in Toronto in both the ownership and rental sectors – in terms of responding to needs within the existing stock as well as creating new opportunities to reduce demand and manage growth pressures. While many residents will be able to compete in the private market many others will need strong public policies and programs to meet their housing needs.
Source: http://www.toronto.ca/affordablehousing/pdf/HOT-staffreport-action-plan-may 8.pdf
Toronto faces a dynamic and uncertain decade in which population shifts and economic change will put continued pressures on the City’s ability
to provide housing opportunity for all.
Over the next decade, Toronto will grow by a net total of 130,000 people to reach a population of 2.8 million by 2020.
This includes:
• up to one million immigrants arriving in the city from every corner of the world
• 100,000 young people entering Toronto’s housing market for the first time
• 80,000 residents entering their senior years
• the migration of many current residents, particularly families, out of Toronto and into the surrounding region and beyond.
Shifting economic and demographic trends will place a strong demand on the full range of housing opportunities available in Toronto in both the ownership and rental sectors – in terms of responding to needs within the existing stock as well as creating new opportunities to reduce demand and manage growth pressures. While many residents will be able to compete in the private market many others will need strong public policies and programs to meet their housing needs.
Source: http://www.toronto.ca/affordablehousing/pdf/HOT-staffreport-action-plan-may 8.pdf
greenleaf
Senior Member
Click on the little triangle with the exclamation point below the particular post and send a note ("Report post"). It will go to a moderator.
daveto
Active Member
You are quoting from a 4 year old political document prepared by the Affordable Housing Committee. Probably not the best document to use for RE investment planning.
Also, the earlier document you linked stated that from 1996-2006 net migration to the 416 was 50k people and and that:
http://www.toronto.ca/opreview/pdf/trends_in_housing_occupancy_bulletin.pdf
-population growth was 4.9%
-housing unit growth was 8.4%
-persons per unit growth as minus 3%.
In total, fewer people per unit, and more units per person.
Toronto is not London/NY/HK/Paris/etc, where buildable land is in short supply. We have literally hundreds of acres of land in the downtown core which is ripe for development. Look at all the teardown 1 & 2 story buildings. We're a hundred years away from having a problem finding a place to house people in the 416 (let alone in the GTA)
However, we have an immediate, dire need for a transportation system means to transport the people we already have, and this is being referenced outside Canada as a deterrent to immigrants considering moving to the 416.
Other contra-indicators to your theory of the scarcity of available properties in the face of a tidal wave of demand include:
-the current record level of home ownership in Canada.
-the lowest demand in a decade, despite the highest inventory in the past 4 years
...I'm tired, so I'll stop here. But the above is not intended to be a comprehensive review of the documents or issues.
azureray
Active Member
I can't help but think that housing market appreciation is one of the biggest reason of inflation.
Properties are only worth as much as people think they are worth. Although real estate value is a huge portion of the total economy, the majority of home owners have mortgages, which means no one really paid the full price for their properties. They are only contributing to the belief of how much the property is worth. Based on that belief, banks then print new money and have them into the circulation. The more people 'believe' properties are worth, the more banks will lend out, which means the more money they will create. Inflation.
So as a result, even though housing price keep rising, the actual value of RE never changed. If you need a place to live in, you have a place to live in, that's the value of a property. It is the depreciation of money and everything else made housing more and more unaffordable.
This seems to be the process and we may call this 'belief' a bubble. Then the entire concept of property value is a bubble.
Properties are only worth as much as people think they are worth. Although real estate value is a huge portion of the total economy, the majority of home owners have mortgages, which means no one really paid the full price for their properties. They are only contributing to the belief of how much the property is worth. Based on that belief, banks then print new money and have them into the circulation. The more people 'believe' properties are worth, the more banks will lend out, which means the more money they will create. Inflation.
So as a result, even though housing price keep rising, the actual value of RE never changed. If you need a place to live in, you have a place to live in, that's the value of a property. It is the depreciation of money and everything else made housing more and more unaffordable.
This seems to be the process and we may call this 'belief' a bubble. Then the entire concept of property value is a bubble.
interested
Senior Member
And with that statement, you have hit on one big issue with housing.
Mood and people's beliefs in real estate just like the stock market are driven by fear and greed.
Anything in the middle and not much movement. However, if a mindset of fear sets in, prices drop massively.
Of course there are other real issues here such as the cost to reproduce the product and certain locations being better more valuable than others but given that the values have come up so much (beyond historical norms) it is for this reason that a change in perception to fear of price drops or real events that tighten credit that can result in significant price drops.
Southcore
Active Member
On the subject of immigration,
http://qz.com/82284/three-out-of-five-of-chinese-multi-millionaires-want-to-emigrate-out-of-china/
The original article of that report can be found here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-high-net-worth-individuals-120000854.html
http://qz.com/82284/three-out-of-five-of-chinese-multi-millionaires-want-to-emigrate-out-of-china/
The original article of that report can be found here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-high-net-worth-individuals-120000854.html
azureray
Active Member
Thanks for sharing. This is very true, not fantasy.
If you have recently visited any sales centre, such as Yonge and Rich or Casa 3, you will find all buyers there sharing one common trait. Chinese.
Maybe one way to save the RE market in case of a crash is to reopen Canada's 'investment immigration' programme, just like US and Australia.
If you have recently visited any sales centre, such as Yonge and Rich or Casa 3, you will find all buyers there sharing one common trait. Chinese.
Maybe one way to save the RE market in case of a crash is to reopen Canada's 'investment immigration' programme, just like US and Australia.
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daveto
Active Member
There is a difference between propping up prices in excess of the consumptive value of housing, and saving the RE market. I think the latter will eventually and naturally take place as the market adjusts to the true value of housing, separate and distinct from medium term (20 years?) demographic/credit/government influences.
The irony is that when/if RE prices are inflated that primarily enriches realtors/banks/brokers. Look at the macro picture in Canada. Residential RE is worth $1.3T. Annual price increases above inflation at 5% per year for the past decade? So last year that was income of some $60b. Now look at who earned money off that.
$3b Realtors (4% on 200k resale properties at $350k),
$2b Mortgage Brokers (guess)
$10b Banks (1/3 of $30b annual profits?)
$3b Non-bank mortgages (guess)
$2b Govt LTTs (guess)
$5b Income Taxes on investment properties (guess)
$5b Developers (guess)
$?..others...
$30B+
It seems that perhaps 50% of the gain in the annual price appreciation gets carved off from the owners. I don't deny that there will always be income from the RE sector to the above group. Simply that a lot of the paper gains by owners have flowed to realized gains by the RE service industry.