News   Dec 20, 2024
UrbanToronto Year-End Poll: Vote on the Best Buildings of 2024, presented by Sapphire Balconies
 1.6K     7 
News   Dec 20, 2024
UrbanToronto's Social Media Presence Skyrocketed in 2024
 981     2 
News   Dec 20, 2024
Mattamy Homes Records A Year of Accomplishments
 1.8K     0 

Baby, we got a bubble!?

ISYM said:
This is normal in every real estate market because the higher the price the fewer the buyers. One of the gauges I use to assist with market direction is to track the number of high end properties starting with non-condos or what is being referred to as SFH. Once they start to taper off in price and or linger longer on the market it is a sure signal that buying power is receding and the trend starts downward.

It is not a good idea to measure condominium prices against houses as they are two different animals entirely but the question about comparative appreciation intriques me and if anyone is interested, I'll undertake a little study to see how the two rate against each other. It can only have a reasonable expectation of comparative analysis if specific neighbourhoods and streets offer both such as the 4 blocks east , west and south of Yonge or the Hazelton Lanes west corridor or Yonge & Davisville.
Click to expand...

ISYM; if not too much trouble, I would sure be interested. Your 4 block radius idea would be interesting.
I agree with your first point and the rationale for why high end moves slower first.
 
There are a lot of intangibles in owning a home. It is yours. You decorate as you see fit. You improve the property if you wish.
You know no one can tell you to move out.

That said, people need to live within their means.

This is written by a financial planner who makes his money not when people invest in housing but buy products. That said, I do believe people should save with RRSP's, TFSA's etc. but that does not mean they should not save for a home, just one they can afford.

The question I have is are all those "smart renters" saving their money or just spending it elsewhere...going out for more meals, to bars, to concerts and theatres. Perhaps those "dumb owners" are investing incorrectly in a depreciating asset or maybe they are not. The important thing is common sense.

Do not buy more house than you can afford.
If renting, ensure that money you "save" is truly saved.
At least the house will have some value at the end of the day, maybe less than paid, but if the money is spent on "lifestyle" rather than savings, those renters will have even less left.

that said, I am not saying it is a good time to buy because it is not in my view least some think I am advocating buying today.
 
interested said:
The question I have is are all those "smart renters" saving their money or just spending it elsewhere...going out for more meals, to bars, to concerts and theatres.
Click to expand...

I'm one of those "smart renters", socking away the extra money into RRSPs and maxing my TFSA. I probably spend a less than your typical home owner. I think that I would be spending a lot more money if I had a big house to fill with furniture and appliances. Also, living downtown means I care a lot less about having a nice car (or cars) and I spend less on gas.

I do wish I'd bought instead, though! Hindsight being 20/20. When I see other people's houses going up by 5~10% every year, I can't help but try and "catch up" by the only means available to me: cutting spending and investing.
 
Kenny said:
I'm one of those "smart renters", socking away the extra money into RRSPs and maxing my TFSA. I probably spend a less than your typical home owner. I think that I would be spending a lot more money if I had a big house to fill with furniture and appliances. Also, living downtown means I care a lot less about having a nice car (or cars) and I spend less on gas.

I do wish I'd bought instead, though! Hindsight being 20/20. When I see other people's houses going up by 5~10% every year, I can't help but try and "catch up" by the only means available to me: cutting spending and investing.
Click to expand...

We are all smart Kenny in hindsight. Only those of us who make no decisions can claim to be correct all the time. We all make mistakes.

Congratulations on using your head. The important thing is to always look at where we are now and ask the following question: Today, does it make sense to buy? If the answer is no, do not compound what appears as an error in the past for not having bought by buying now. I still believe you will get a chance to buy cheaper than today's prices especially if one is talking about Precon should you decide at some point you want to buy.

I could make the same argument by the way about not buying gold 3 years ago, not buying Apple stock 3 years ago, not buying the TSX index after 2008.....you get the point. It is not just real estate.

Imagine we would be 2007 and having this discussion with the 2008 "meltdown" just around the corner, though granted in real estate at least it recovered quickly.
 
interested said:
The important thing is common sense.
Click to expand...


You forget that most people are stupid... and stupid people do alot of creative things to destroy value. So don't ever underestimate the power of stupid sheeple that get herded into big mortgages... unaffordable housing will slow the economic system... as less... disposable income will get spent in useful segments of the economy rather than a mortgage which acts as a regressive tax that we didn't vote for.

http://serendip.brynmawr.edu/serendipia/Stupidity.html
 
Macookie;

Yes a lot of people are ignorant of the potential pitfalls of the investment decisions they make.
However, I think to say they are stupid is a bit harsh. Rather, I believe they are uneducated in the realm of financial management.

A lot of people have never had formal training in finance. They are ill equipped to make informed decisions. I believe if I recall you were a tax auditor. To me that implies accounting and other financial courses you have been exposed to a long the way.

By the way, a lot of very smart people do a lot of creative things to destroy value. In the case of Long Term Capital you had no less than 2 Nobel Prize Laureates proceed to put the company into bankruptcy. So wealth destruction is not the purvue of solely the stupid.

That said, I believe that we should be ensuring that all kids in high school get basic business courses as an absolute requirement. It will not solve all the issues but it will help to educate a better informed group going forward.
 
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/10/harbingers-of-doom/

Andrew Coyne weighing in on the 'harbingers of doom' (MacLean's) about the Canadian housing market. I'd forgotten or never read about half the articles he cites, so it was illuminating to see how long the sturm und drang over housing has gone on.

FWIW, we're thinking very seriously about cashing in on the equity in the rathole. Riverdale has seen price appreciation that is not sustainable -- it's pretty easy to go up 10% a year when it's $400k to $440k. Not so easy when it's $1M to $1.1M -- how do you finance that extra six figures?
 
interested said:
I could make the same argument by the way about not buying gold 3 years ago, not buying Apple stock 3 years ago, not buying the TSX index after 2008.....you get the point. It is not just real estate.
Click to expand...
Heh. I've been telling people to buy Apple stock since the early 2000s. I finally did myself a little while later in the mid 2000s, when it was around 50-60 bucks, but sold when I made a "whopping" 50% profit. If I had kept it, I would have made over 1000% profit.

However, personally I think AAPL at over $600 is more risky to buy now than Toronto real estate, to be honest.

Riverdale Rink Rat said:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/10/harbingers-of-doom/

Andrew Coyne weighing in on the 'harbingers of doom' (MacLean's) about the Canadian housing market. I'd forgotten or never read about half the articles he cites, so it was illuminating to see how long the sturm und drang over housing has gone on.
Click to expand...
How long has this been going on at Macleans? I seem to recall people getting more concerned in the mid 2000s.

FWIW, we're thinking very seriously about cashing in on the equity in the rathole. Riverdale has seen price appreciation that is not sustainable -- it's pretty easy to go up 10% a year when it's $400k to $440k. Not so easy when it's $1M to $1.1M -- how do you finance that extra six figures?
Click to expand...
If you cash in, where are you going to live? Or is this an investment property?
 
Eug said:
Heh. I've been telling people to buy Apple stock since the early 2000s. I finally did myself a little while later in the mid 2000s, when it was around 50-60 bucks, but sold when I made a "whopping" 50% profit. If I had kept it, I would have made over 1000% profit.

However, personally I think AAPL at over $600 is more risky to buy now than Toronto real estate, to be honest.


How long has this been going on at Macleans? I seem to recall people getting more concerned in the mid 2000s.


If you cash in, where are you going to live? Or is this an investment property?
Click to expand...

Agree with you about AAPL. This is another of those I have perfect ability to predict the past. Buying Apple at $600 despite calls as high as $1001/share that I have seen is just another example of gambling in my view.

Macleans has been running articles along with other MSM for a long time with headlines designed to catch your attention, often with little or no bearing on the article itself.

I agree with your suggestion to Riverdale Rink Rat: RRR; you are living in it and enjoying it. Unless you figure you are prepared to downsize, take out some equity, and forgo what I assume is your home, why even consider this unless you are stretched with mortgage payments, would like to eliminate debt, or feel that the downturn will be severe. After all, consider all the costs and figure that $100K of your equity will go immediately assuming you use realtors and buy something else (LTT, legals, moving costs etc.).
 
You must log in or register to post here.

Back
Top