Baby, we got a bubble!?

[interested]

Ah yes, nothing like the sweet satisfaction at the (perceived) misfortune of others.

And tell me, you odious troll, where was the money of those "on the sidelines" over the past three years? Equities? Bonds? Gold? Oil.

Yes, they sure have missed out. Such an idiot.

Dave, you bring up a very good point that there have been better investments since 2008 than real estate despite its increase.
That said, Ka1 says all these things to keep the forum going. I think we have to understand that it is said "tongue in cheek".

 

[KA1]

Ah yes, nothing like the sweet satisfaction at the (perceived) misfortune of others.

And tell me, you odious troll, where was the money of those "on the sidelines" over the past three years? Equities? Bonds? Gold? Oil.

Yes, they sure have missed out. Such an idiot.

Considering the source, I am going to completely ignore your post with the contempt it deserves.

Beyond that, I would like to quote Buddha. If you spit at the moon, you are going to deface your own face.

 

[macookie]

Considering the source, I am going to completely ignore your post with the contempt it deserves.

Beyond that, I would like to quote Buddha. If you spit at the moon, you are going to deface your own face.

Why ignore by quoting Buddha, when Orwell's 1984 is so much better... You want a picture of the future imagine a boot smashing a human face forever.

Our "vested" collective Canadian interests has Mark Carney in the driver seat wearing the boots, as he decides to knock down or rather stamp out the astronomical unaffordable housing prices in Canada. He has pretty much told us, that most Canadians will benefit when house prices fall back in relation to fundamentals, such as income and the cost of renting. So if Carney has his way... Toronto possibly faces a big reckoning of more than 25%, which is a big wad of spit to kick towards the moon.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...f-debt-levels-get-out-of-hand/article2394048/

 

[KA1]

Why ignore by quoting Buddha, when Orwell's 1984 is so much better... You want a picture of the future imagine a boot smashing a human face forever.

Our "vested" collective Canadian interests has Mark Carney in the driver seat wearing the boots, as he decides to knock down or rather stamp out the astronomical unaffordable housing prices in Canada. He has pretty much told us, that most Canadians will benefit when house prices fall back in relation to fundamentals, such as income and the cost of renting. So if Carney has his way... Toronto possibly faces a big reckoning of more than 25%, which is a big wad of spit to kick towards the moon.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...f-debt-levels-get-out-of-hand/article2394048/

For a change, what a breath of fresh, fragrant air

 

[interested]

^^^
Carney keeps talking but remains in no man's land.
He can't raise interest rates in the short term as the dollar would get stronger and the US recovery is fragile; Canadian job numbers not good (they sounded better than they really are). Manufacturing remains challenged. Ontario, the economic engine continues to struggle.
So he keeps trying to warn people not to go too far in debt but it is falling on deaf ears the longer we go without a "correction".
Eventually, everyone, even Ka1,(see the levity here Ka1), concludes that it will not correct.
Of course it will. We, "the bears" will ultimately unfortunately be correct. But we will be incorrect because it may occur 5 or 6 years further down the road than we thought. So, to quote my departed father, "you can be beautiful, but you can't be smart".

 

[Eug]

While I do expect a mild to possibly moderate pullback, I still think one possible outcome is that prices eventually revert to the trend curve without actually dropping much. All that would have to happen is prices remain flat for 5 years, and suddenly the necessity for a price drop in nominal dollars evaporates. Soft landing, as it were.

Nonetheless, in terms of timing, it's clear everyone predicting a quick pullback was simply wrong.

 

[interested]

While I do expect a pullback, I still think it's possible prices eventually revert to the trend curve without actually dropping much. This would mean prices will remain flat for a period of time, so that the effects of inflation takes care of things.

All that would have to happen is prices remain flat for 5 years, and suddenly the necessity for a price drop in nominal dollars evaporates.

We are all hoping for this Eug. This is the best case scenario.
Unfortunately in my experience when the market sentiment shifts; it generally does not just taper. It goes from seller's market to buyer's market and in the process; prices adjust.

 

[macookie]

^^^
Carney keeps talking but remains in no man's land.
He can't raise interest rates in the short term as the dollar would get stronger and the US recovery is fragile; Canadian job numbers not good (they sounded better than they really are). Manufacturing remains challenged. Ontario, the economic engine continues to struggle.
So he keeps trying to warn people not to go too far in debt but it is falling on deaf ears the longer we go without a "correction".
Eventually, everyone, even Ka1,(see the levity here Ka1), concludes that it will not correct.
Of course it will. We, "the bears" will ultimately unfortunately be correct. But we will be incorrect because it may occur 5 or 6 years further down the road than we thought. So, to quote my departed father, "you can be beautiful, but you can't be smart".

Oh... you can be beautiful and smart... you just have to be prepared like the virgins that brought enough oil with them to last through the night as they waited for the bridegroom. As well, you have to have a bit of a contrarian point of view... so that you don't follow the sheeple and false profits (aka specs and KA1) that will lead you astray... as they lured you to consume a condo or two... and last but not least we don't forget that the money changers in the temple, occasionally need to be tossed out. I do believe Jesus taught us one important lesson... which was to love our neighbours... and more so without debt.

My bet still is... we will see lower housing prices by the end of 2015.

 

[Eug]

My bet still is... we will see lower housing prices by the end of 2015.

Lower than 2012? Or lower than 2014?

 

[macookie]

Lower than 2012? Or lower than 2014?

My bet is lower price by the end of 2015 and the average one bedroom in downtown Toronto around $200K-250... so basically $400-450 psf... I'm not sure of the timeline... I think that was after 2001 but prior to 2006 pricing.

 

[Eug]

We are all hoping for this Eug. This is the best case scenario.

This is not the best case scenario for those hoping for continued pricing increases. The best case scenario for them is that price increases continue. And indeed that is still a possibility too for several years.

And if they want to have more conservative hopes, they can hope for small increases over those years.

My bet is lower price by the end of 2015 and the average one bedroom in downtown Toronto around $200K-250... so basically $400-450 psf... I'm not sure of the timeline... I think that was after 2001 but prior to 2006 pricing.

While I won't rule out this possibility, I'd say there is a pretty good chance you'll be wrong.

 

[macookie]

Currently resale one bedrooms downtown are selling between $300K-$450K so around $500-600 psf... and higher for some buildings. Pre-construction is way higher... and liking not to last... and is creating a bigger pool of condos then is needed for 2015... Toronto isn't growing that fast... yeah it's growing, but that fast???...

So with a 10% - 25% downturn ($30K to $100K) and I'm sure once Carney or worse the government start to really tinker to squeeze the market... the prices will fall more than just the 10% - 25% everyone talks about... so yes, the doomers and gloomers have potential to be wrong while the "consuming condoers" have the possibility of being right... but incomes have to rise (which lead to inflation + interest rate hikes, which favours lower RE prices) or the stars have to align around the moon perfectly some other way that even Carney isn't predicting. Which pretty much means we are going to see lower prices... and we must now start to prepare for that eventuality.

 

[Eug]

Or like we've suggested earlier, the possibility also exists that (nominal) prices will just stagnate.

 

[macookie]

Or like we've suggested earlier, the possibility also exists that (nominal) prices will just stagnate.

For prices to stagnate... we would need to witness the consuming condoers restrain from gorging on condos... But we know that the consuming condoers will continue to feed their psychopathic greedy personalities to the detriment of regular Canadians. We just watched INDX as a prime example of the stampede of sheeple creating a demand for... what we we're warned not to do yet people continue to do what they shouldn't do, which in the short-term is collectively bad for everyone. The more we get away from the mean the greater the pain will be to get back to it... and we'll probably overshoot. We just need to look around to see what shooting ourselves in the foot feels like.

 

[KA1]

..so yes, the doomers and gloomers have potential to be wrong while the "consuming condoers" have the possibility of being right... but incomes have to rise (which lead to inflation + interest rate hikes, which favours lower RE prices) or ..

It seems that they teach different economics at U of T, where I went to, than in other universities, perhaps, like Windsor.

You don't need income to be able to afford a condo or a house in Toronto. You need money, your parents money or foreign money from places like Vancouver. You seem to have missed the news item of a few weeks ago that a house in Yonge and Finch area was sold for $ 416,000 above the asking price. That was with parent's money.

I guess it will take some additional time for you to get used to the fact that it is in Toronto that you are living now