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Baby, we got a bubble!?

daveto said:
I don't recall anyone predicting the "sky falling". Although I do recall predictions of a 25% drop over five years.

By the way, did you actually read that article?

"Sales of new housing hit 4,535 units last month, up by 0.6 per cent from the same time last year according to figures released by the Building, Industry and Land Development Association on Monday. The positive figure is a major rebound from September, when sales were down by 32 per cent."

"“Clearly investors are still active in the property market,†said housing analyst Will Dunning. “It remains to be seen how this will all play out.â€

"Some analysts have said there are too many high rise buildings being built".

"Toronto new housing prices remained flat in September over August, the first time that prices have not increased this year, according to figures released by Statistics Canada. "

"A softening market means builders will have to hold the line on pricing."
Click to expand...

Dave, it is interesting to see how different people see the same data.

I note that Moneyville (and other journal articles) seem to be going for eye catching headlines that are very supportive of the real estate industry the last 6 months. I suspect that the editors have told their journalists we need a positive spin because their "advertisors" were likely unhappy with negative report sounding headlines.

I agree with your interpretation. I wonder what spin they will put on it when they have to say prices on new are actually dropping. However, the development industry won't let that happen either but will rather offer "incentives" which have the same effect but they will claim on paper the new home price is still "whatever".

I also fully expect the spin will be going forward (since prices are below the peak in May and will be dropping that "in 2010" as a whole, prices were slightly up or unchanged for last year when the trend will be clearly going down.

Also, when those foreign investors (the majority of the condo market by some accounts) wake up to the reality of the numbers on the ground, will they still be interested in holding for the long term, or will we see some discontent and sales. I don't know the answer but it is sure a risk when/if our local people are being priced out of the market and would not be in a position to pick up any slack.

Maybe UD is right that things will correlate with stock markets so I am awaiting his prediction for the stock market the next 6 months. I think he is doing tech analysis looking at 50 and 200 day moving averages so I want to hear if he is expecting a bull run or at least continued strength since he is correct in regard that the wealth effect will be reinforced and investors will continue to invest as long as they feel things are good. Witness the stock market decline in 2008-2009 and the effect on housing.
 
Since 8th of November failed to close up (very rarely on an 8 day does it go down), and with the pullback, it's understandable the $INDU P&F chart indicates another test of the 200ma support. After that? It's either double bottom or the bulls take over for a push to 13500. So a touch down on the 10500 level area, then ... well it is the year of the financially lucky rabbit beginning Feb 2011...so green it will be no doubt.
 
UD, you really believe in the Chinese calender year as the predictor?

Are you going to show an analysis of every year of the Rabbit indicating a positive $indu?

And while you are at it, will you do the TO real estate in the same year from previous and tell us how the year of the Rabbit did then?

LOL
 
So rabbits are going to buy condos, is that it?

Better run out and get my condos before all those rabbits eat all the supply. HAHA

So then I guess the conclusion is we are about to get inundated with new condo sales events and presumably higher prices. NOT, at least in my opinion
 
Last edited:
dont rabbits multiply like ... rabbits

doesn't that result in euthanizing them to keep the population down ?!?
 
urbandreamer said:
The year: 1999 of the rabbit.

The city: Toronto

How I became obsessed with development: T Star New Homes and Condos every Saturday

What I noticed then: Huge increase in condo sales events.

Conclusion: Rabbits like to eat carrots!
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I thought you didn't read The Star?
 
My room mate at the time read the Star, meant I got to read the sections she found boring. That meant Wheels and the real estate section, both sections which have interested me for the past 20+ years. (Although not so much during the past 8 years, thanks to online autoblog and urbantoronto etc.)

I read the Star's home page daily, just to see what Regent Park drug dealer got shot, etc. I've always been a fan of British style crime reports/news.:) I mostly read the Daily Mail, Manchester Guardian, Telegraph, Independent and BBC for news online. Canadian, and even American news, bores me.
 
Tune into Rogers TV's Inside Toronto Real Estate on Wednesday, November 17th at 7:00 PM as we investigate if Toronto is in a Real Estate Bubble.

Toronto has been one of the few cities in North America that hasn't had a price correction. Does this mean we are the last market to have the bubble pop?

Tune in Tonight as we discuss if Toronto is in a Real Estate Bubble

Host Brian Persaud will lead a discussion with Senior Market Analysts from CMHC and the Toronto Real Estate Board, and Blogger Brian Ripley who writes the Plunge-o-Meter and expects prices to correct (http://www.chpc.biz/).


Viewers are encouraged to call 416.446 7090 or email insidetorealestate@rogerstv.com and ask the panel questions

Each week Inside Toronto Real Estate takes a look at the Toronto Real Estate market, mortgages, property values, legal issues and everything you need to know before and after you sign on the dotted line of your home purchase. Each week, host Brian Persaud talks with industry experts to help potential buyers fulfill their dream of owning a home or condo.

Inside Toronto Real Estate airs Wednesdays at 7:00 PM only on Rogers TV ( Cable 10 in Toronto and Cable 63 in Scarborough) and repeats Thursdays at 2 PM. For complete broadcast details, please visit www.rogerstv.com/ITRE
 
InsideTorontoRealEstate said:
Tune into Rogers TV's Inside Toronto Real Estate on Wednesday, November 17th at 7:00 PM as we investigate if Toronto is in a Real Estate Bubble.

Toronto has been one of the few cities in North America that hasn't had a price correction.
Click to expand...

Great timing for this segment Brian!

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/admin.aspx?mode=voirBBY&nonews=122&qui=3539&langue=EN

For the first time since February 2009, prices fell in all six of the metropolitan markets surveyed. The declines were 2.4% in Halifax, 2.2% in Calgary, 1.6% in Toronto,] 0.5% in Ottawa and 0.3% in Montreal and Vancouver. For Vancouver it was the third consecutive monthly decrease and for Calgary it was the second.
Click to expand...
 
With Theatre Park condos having been sold like hot cakes at around $ 725/sq ft and Bisha's steady sales at around $ 800/sq ft, can we reasonably say that the prices have almost reached the bottom, the 'dreaded' steep fall in condo prices is never going to happen and that next February/March prices will, once again, start increasing --although at 2/3%?
 
While I disagree with Paperchopper that we have a "pop" I do agree that we have a slow leak commencing with the declining trend.

I don't think we will see a massive pop unless we get rampant inflation. While we had 0.5% last month, annualized it will slow in Nov because last year there was a big increase from Oct to Nov so even if there is another 0.5% increase in CPI from Oct to Nov, it will show as steady inflation at around 2.4%, the same as the month of Oct 2010. That said, I agree as well that inflation is a problem. However, as long as the economy is weak, I do not see runaway inflation. Also HST factors in now but it's effect will be mostly included within the year.

To KA1, I don't know that one can begin to conclude this. As well, I have maintained and still believe that we have the Johnny come lately"s now who do not comprehend I believe or who just believe that there need be no relationship between house prices for sale and rents and returns on investment. It is a fundamental rule of investment that there be a rate of return. Not sure here that we are not seeing the last of the speculators.

As well, Theatre Park while expensive is in a very ideal location: 3 minutes walk to the Financial district. Bisha appeals to a certain target audience. I don't get Bisha and it is a big risk/reward proposal being an unknown "5 star brand". That said, I am not sure the other launches are doing anywhere near as well. Perhaps some could enlighten us on this last issue.
 
KA1 said:
With Theatre Park condos having been sold like hot cakes at around $ 725/sq ft and Bisha's steady sales at around $ 800/sq ft, can we reasonably say that the prices have almost reached the bottom, the 'dreaded' steep fall in condo prices is never going to happen and that next February/March prices will, once again, start increasing --although at 2/3%?
Click to expand...

Steady sales for Bisha? That's not what I've heard. Stuck at 45% for the last 4 weeks - this for a project that's been on sale for 3 months now.

I think this recent surge in new condo buying is an indication of investor speculation. I was in tons of condo showrooms in October and they were all empty - EMPTY. This indicates to me that the people buying are buying high multiples of units, sight unseen, from elsewhere - not Toronto. If I had to guess, I'd also say that we're looking at around 80% investor driven sales - and these types of investors and bulk buyers seem to be the last to know. It's not a good sign - it's a bad one.
 
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