interested
Senior Member
I believe what UD was attempting to say (not to put words in mouth) was that wealthy, local, empty nesters prefer bay/yorkville to university/adelaide. I tend to agree with that thought myself regardless of the very high quality product that the SL is going to deliver.
However, in my opinion, the FS price structure is classic bubble ($1400 psf, are you joking?) when you consider the gorgeous One St. Thomas tower close by at <$1000.
I agree that wealthy local empty nesters likely would prefer bay/yorkville over the entertainment district. Its a bit (since everyone likes to talk about New York) Central park (Yorkville) vs. Downtown (Entertainment district). Yorkville/Central Park are more valuable.
I posted in a previous thread talking about Aura vs. Shangrila that I thought the mix of people would be different due to size of units and price point. I think the same can be said about 4Seasons vs. Shangrila. I suspect there will be a different mix (more international at Shangrila with more from Asia probably, somewhat younger as I believe more of the 4 Seasons will be empty nesters and perhaps more working people at Shangrila, and yes, some wannabe's who couldn't afford the 4 Seasons but perhaps the Shangrila).
I guess if 4S comes to $1000 sq. ft., to match Shangrila (40% decline), Shangrila goes from $1100 to $660/sq.ft. Aura at about $800(my guess as to price goes to $480 and all $600 product goes to $360/sq.ft. Of course, I would grant that high end may drop more (both in absolute dollars and percentage terms than less priced product). These numbers are quite drastic but not out of the realm of possible. Note however this ranks with the drops seen in the worst of the US markets (though admittedly there are some US markets down 60% from peak (but their peak was more than double ours in percentage growth so the comparable would be 30%)