A Comparison of the Three Most Recent Highrise Booms in Toronto

[Mongo]

We all know that we are in the middle of a very large construction boom in Toronto, but how does it truly compare to previous booms? This is what I have attempted to answer in this study.

I set a lower cut-off of 300 feet (I could have used metres, but feet give a somewhat finer "grain" of heights), and entered every habitable building built in Toronto of at least that height (plus the CN Tower) into a spreadsheet. For each building, I had the spreadsheet calculate the square of the height, divided by 1000 (so that a 1000' building would score at 1000, and a 300' building would score at 90), and added the scores for each building 300' or over completed in a given year. I then added the yearly scores for each of the three major booms (1965-1981, 1983-1995, 2003-2016?), and normalized each one to the 1965-1981 boom at 100%.

1965-1981 100.00%

1983-1995 54.00%

2003-2010 100.43%
2011-2016? 215.66%

So far in the current boom, we have just now surpassed the 1965-1981 boom by this measure (in half the number of years), and are not yet 1/3 of the way through the known buildings with a known height in this boom. We are set to almost triple the Toronto highrise total score as it was at the end of 2002 by the year 2016. I am sure that many of the proposed buildings will have their heights reduced from the currently proposed heights, or even not be built at all, but the list does not include the Signature or Canada towers, or any project currently under wraps (I am aware of several such projects), so I would expect at least as impressive a total score in the coming years.

The 20 most productive years (to 2012):

1976 3976.38 (including the CN Tower)
2011 3745.43
2012 3640.82
2010 2714.78
2009 2632.44
1972 1986.67
2005 1860.43
1991 1654.30
1975 1612.82
2008 1287.07
2006 1123.73
2003 1112.93
2007 1058.89
2004 980.94
1988 914.73
1990 893.00
1992 752.45
1974 724.46
1976 682.16 (not including the CN Tower)
1967 650.64
1981 536.60

In addition, the four years 2013-2016 would each reach over 4000 by this measure, if all the proposed projects are built. This level of sustained highrise construction has happened in only two other cities in North America: New York City and Chicago. Toronto is in the process of joining them.

 

[allabootmatt]

Wow. Very cool. I love that UT has people willing to work out this sort of thing.

 

[allabootmatt]

Wow. Very cool. I love that UT has people willing to work out this sort of thing.

 

[adma]

I don't know whether I'd label 1981 as an end date for one such boom, given how the advent of Crombie/Sewell dampered a lot of highrise construction--what continued to be built was either a vestige of the earlier era, or a foretelling of the following boom...

 

[Mongo]

I have included the buildings between 250' and 299', because I wanted to flesh out the earlier years when these buildings were the main type being built. It turns out that if they are included, the earlier boom becomes somewhat more prominent compared to the later booms, since a lot of buildings in that height range were built at the time. The new top 20 years:

2011 4311.22
1976 4109.04 (including CN Tower)
2012 3856.77
1972 3335.21
2010 3158.00
2009 2719.47
2005 1931.19
1975 1876.56
1991 1868.17
2003 1792.23
2008 1524.78
2006 1423.22
2007 1386.15
2004 1364.46
1990 1304.38
1992 1184.76
1988 1135.95
1967 1029.96
1974 946.41
1976 814.81 (not including CN Tower)
1973 720.19

The booms could be limited to those years when highrise construction is notably above the "background level" which is generally in the range 100 to 300, in which case they lasted for a shorter time. The three booms then become:

First Boom:

1967 1029.96
1968 430.37
1969 694.72
1970 689.17
1971 379.56
1972 3335.21
1973 720.19
1974 946.41
1975 1876.56
1976 814.81 (4109.04 with CN Tower)
1977 690.93
1978 700.11

Second Boom:

1988 1135.95
1989 315.99
1990 1304.38
1991 1868.17
1992 1184.76

Third Boom:

2003 1792.23
2004 1364.46
2005 1931.19
2006 1423.22
2007 1386.15
2008 1524.78
2009 2719.47
2010 3158.00
2011 4311.22 (projected)
2012 3856.77 (projected)

2013-2015 ~17000.00 (projected -- generally still proposals, so completion dates are probably very optimistic)

Here is the combined graph of total 250+ foot construction (green line and left-hand axis) and the yearly 250+ foot construction (red diamonds and right-hand scale):

 

[greenleaf]

Very cool Mongo! I'm sure this took a lot of time to put together. Thank you!

 

[kondoz]

Thank you Mongo! Sometimes I find it difficult to explain to those who used to live here how much change is going on. This puts some perspective.