46th Canadian General Election

[Admiral Beez]

In the old city of Toronto, possibly University-Rosedale.

That's Chrystia Freeland's riding. I would think anyone angry with Trudeau would vote for her as a safer protest vote.

She'll be like Elsie Wayne (or Jean Charest) who would survive the PC blowout in 1993 through their individual popularity.

 

[evandyk]

Yeah, in the last election it was Freeland (45%) then NDP (25%) then CPC (20%). If Freeland goes down by 20 points, that riding is won by someone else, and I think it's the best chance the CPC has in the old City of being there to capitalize. In all the other ridings they did worse than 20% in the last election. I suspect both the NDP and CPC are looking for "star" candidates they can run there, rather than running nobodies like last time.

 

[Richard White]

In the old city of Toronto, possibly University-Rosedale. CPC got 20% in the last election. In most of the old City ridings, their problem is that the NDP will probably capture more of the disgruntled previous Liberal voters. Toronto Centre, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Spadina-Fort York and Toronto-Danforth will probably all be NDP. Nathanial Erskine-Smith is personally popular and can probably hold Beaches-East York, but even that will be a struggle for him. But that would go NDP if he doesn't win.

In Etobicoke, Scarborough, and North York it will be happy hunting for CPC candidates.

Scarborough Southwest last went to the PC Party back in the Mulroney days from 1984 to 1988.

For years, Tom Wappel had a lock on the riding but the demographics are changing. It was always a left leaning riding but the NDP have not won it federally since Dan Harris pulled it off in 2011.

I knew Dan very well, he was a good friend of mine for many years but nobody in his campaign (including himself) expected to win.

Personally, I think that the CPC will win Scarborough Southwest this time around. Doly Begum is MIA most of the time and Bill Blair is only as effective as the LPC brand is.

in 2015, I briefly volunteered with the Bill Blair campaign and can vouch for the fact that he is a party shill. All his appearances were full of LPC talking points and pre approved responses.

 

[adma]

Yeah, in the last election it was Freeland (45%) then NDP (25%) then CPC (20%). If Freeland goes down by 20 points, that riding is won by someone else, and I think it's the best chance the CPC has in the old City of being there to capitalize. In all the other ridings they did worse than 20% in the last election. I suspect both the NDP and CPC are looking for "star" candidates they can run there, rather than running nobodies like last time.

Actually, they've done about as well or better in Spadina-Fort York, even if the last time around was aggravated by the Kevin Vuong situation--all those condos have become a stealth hive for the right-of-centre, much like False Creek in Vancouver...

 

[evandyk]

You're right. 20.2%. It will definitely be a lot higher than that. I assume Vuong is going to run as the CP candidate there, in which case he would probably win easily.

 

[toraerach]

Yeah, in the last election it was Freeland (45%) then NDP (25%) then CPC (20%). If Freeland goes down by 20 points, that riding is won by someone else, and I think it's the best chance the CPC has in the old City of being there to capitalize. In all the other ridings they did worse than 20% in the last election. I suspect both the NDP and CPC are looking for "star" candidates they can run there, rather than running nobodies like last time.

I wonder if Diane Saxe has any federal ambitions/if she could pull off the Greens' first Toronto win here.

 

[christiesplits]

That's Chrystia Freeland's riding. I would think anyone angry with Trudeau would vote for her as a safer protest vote.

She'll be like Elsie Wayne (or Jean Charest) who would survive the PC blowout in 1993 through their individual popularity.

Yeah, in the last election it was Freeland (45%) then NDP (25%) then CPC (20%). If Freeland goes down by 20 points, that riding is won by someone else, and I think it's the best chance the CPC has in the old City of being there to capitalize. In all the other ridings they did worse than 20% in the last election. I suspect both the NDP and CPC are looking for "star" candidates they can run there, rather than running nobodies like last time.

I think this could be the election where the Conservative Party of Canada wins a Downtown Toronto riding, either University-Rosedale or Spadina-Harbourfront (formerly Spadina- Fort York). The CPC hit around 20% in both ridings in 2021, meaning a 10-15% increase in their vote might be all they need to win in a three-way race against the NDP and Liberals.

One thing maybe helping Freeland in University-Rosedale is the sympathy vote among voters who felt like she was treated unfair by Trudeau and the Liberal Party brass. Jody Wilson-Raybould was able to get re-elected in her Vancouver riding when she sat as an independent following her high profile quarrel with Trudeau.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Actually, they've done about as well or better in Spadina-Fort York, even if the last time around was aggravated by the Kevin Vuong situation--all those condos have become a stealth hive for the right-of-centre, much like False Creek in Vancouver...

Best way to make a conservative or at least a con-curious voter is to get them into home ownership.

 

[kEiThZ]

Best way to make a conservative or at least a con-curious voter is to get them into home ownership.

What? If polling is accurate, the homeowners (mostly older) are voting Liberal. And the renters (mostly frustrated young and middle aged) are voting Conservative. I don't think the usual tropes apply here.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

What? If polling is accurate, the homeowners (mostly older) are voting Liberal. And the renters (mostly frustrated young and middle aged) are voting Conservative. I don't think the usual tropes apply here.

Indeed, throw everything you knew out of the window. Age is not a strong indicator of voter intention anymore, in Canada or elsewhere in the Western World. The below age data (dated December 17, 2024) mirrors trends about the young vote trending conservative in many polls in European countries.

My suspicions are that there are two big reasons for this.

• The 25-44 millennial demographic that voted in Trudeau in 2015 have become very disillusioned with Liberal rule and are truly facing the full brunt of the challenges of the modern economy and especially the acute housing crisis and are not happy.
• The 18-24 Gen Z demographic coming through are seeing the above things and also facing insane competition in the lower-end of the job market. They are also being very heavily targeted by right-wing social media. Relatedly, there is also quite a bit of rebelling against the culture wars that older generations waged during their childhood. Being anti-woke is the new counter-culture and dominant especially among the men in this demographic, ripe for the far-right online propaganda machine.

 

[adma]

• The 18-24 Gen Z demographic coming through are seeing the above things and also facing insane competition in the lower-end of the job market. They are also being very heavily targeted by right-wing social media. Relatedly, there is also quite a bit of rebelling against the culture wars that older generations waged during their childhood. Being anti-woke is the new counter-culture and dominant especially among the men in this demographic, ripe for the far-right online propaganda machine.

Compounded by how they (a) grew up with negligible connection or engagement to the fact that "old media" even *exists* (which lines up w/broader trends t/w post-literacy), and (b) thanks to general natalistic or non-natalistic trends, a disproportionate number of them were born to families that would already have been HarperCon, Ford Nation, et al, so it really isn't that much of a stretch....