46th Canadian General Election

[christiesplits]

The Toronto-St. Paul's by-election is today.

Rarely does a by-election hold such big implications for the ruling party. A loss, or even a narrow win by the Liberals (they won by 24% in 2011), will put Trudeau in the hot seat.

 

[afransen]

In a way, it is kind of a sign of the dysfunction of our political system that Trudeau hasn't already been shown the door. MPs are too weak in our party system.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

In a way, it is kind of a sign of the dysfunction of our political system that Trudeau hasn't already been shown the door. MPs are too weak in our party system.

The flip side would be something like the UK...which didn't exactly turn out terribly well either. Australia might be a model - but there were some high profile change of leadership during a period of relative overall stability due to intra-party power struggles.

AoD

 

[christiesplits]

In a way, it is kind of a sign of the dysfunction of our political system that Trudeau hasn't already been shown the door. MPs are too weak in our party system.

My theory is that a lot of prospective leadership candidates are looking 5-10 years down the line. If they were to replace Trudeau immediately, they'd likely be a sacrificial lamb for the next general.

 

[afransen]

My theory is that a lot of prospective leadership candidates are looking 5-10 years down the line. If they were to replace Trudeau immediately, they'd likely be a sacrificial lamb for the next general.

The next Liberal leader is likely going to be a bag holder a la Kim Campbell. I'm not sure why Mark Carney is sniffing around at this stage unless he wants to go down as a PM (if only technically). Unless PP is very unpopular, the leader who is selected after Trudeau likely won't be allowed to stay through a couple of election defeats, and it will be a rather thankless job.

 

[christiesplits]

I suspect quite a few Toronto-area Liberal MPs are reconsidering running again after last night's Conservative victory in Toronto-St. Paul's.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The next Liberal leader is likely going to be a bag holder a la Kim Campbell. I'm not sure why Mark Carney is sniffing around at this stage unless he wants to go down as a PM (if only technically). Unless PP is very unpopular, the leader who is selected after Trudeau likely won't be allowed to stay through a couple of election defeats, and it will be a rather thankless job.

Yep. The LPC will return to a revolving door of Dions and Ignatieffs. That's why they grabbed the otherwise green Justin to be the leader as he at least had nostalgic name recognition. Once Justin's gone, it's lights out for the LPC for another two election cycles, at least. Singh's NDP did even worse in St. Pauls. Once his pension is secure, my guess is Singh also retires.

 

[Richard White]

Singh's NDP did even worse in St. Pauls. Once his pension is secure, my guess is Singh also retires.

As a card carrying NDP member since 2006 I'd much rather see Jagmeet go the way of Mulcair.

He adds nothing of value to the party although there is nobody who can take his place.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Until we have electoral reform, Canada is best served by a single left of centre party. With Justin's coming departure the now decimated LPC may well be seeking a new direction.

Is it time for a Liberal-NDP merger?

The only thing New Democrats and Liberals dislike more than Conservatives is each other. But if they want to put an end to a future Pierre Poilievre government, they might have to find a way to put it aside and join forces more permanently.

www.nationalobserver.com

Liberals, NDP say no plans to merge, despite strong Conservative lead in polls

While there may appear to be strategic advantages to merging in the same way the Progressive Conservative and Canadian Alliance parties united in 2003, no such formal alliance is being contemplated, party spokespeople say.

www.ipolitics.ca

If not a merger, then at least agree to not run competing candidates in left leaning ridings that split the vote and lead to CPC wins.

 

[goreckm]

Until we have electoral reform, Canada is best served by a single left of centre party. With Justin's coming departure the now decimated LPC may well be seeking a new direction.

If not a merger, then at least agree to not run competing candidates in left leaning ridings that split the vote and lead to CPC wins.

I think that would be too smart, which is why it won't happen. I sometimes wonder if without Trudeau's name recognition, the liberals would have beat Harper in that election. The LPC really needs those high profile candidates to siphon off the red tory and soft NDP supporters enough to win.

 

[adma]

But when it comes to apparently "dumb & easy solutions" like uniting the so-called left, there's the eternal matter of...subtracting the Conservative vote. And of how to do *that*, as opposed to merely leaving it alone and enacting a pile-on approach. That is, turn 40% into 30%, rather than leave that 40% alone and try to assemble a 50%.

Because this isn't a matter of "disunited left". This is a matter of smart, astute messaging on the right's part (and by "smart", I mean *strategically* smart--after all, when it comes to the Libs, both Dion and Iggy proved how one could be intellectually smart and strategically stupid at once).

Figure out what the Cons are doing, *how* they are doing it--figure out the forensics there, and stop being reactive about it. Because in a case like this, I think there's an unspoken Jill Andrew/Don Stewart crossover vote to be considered; and most particularly among younger voting cohorts whom the Cons have been targeting by way of talking points and social media strategy. Or, the '21 talk of Jagmeet as the "TikTok leader" is looking awfully dated and fleeting now--it could well be that the Cons are hitting a certain solar plexus w/greater acuity...

 

[afransen]

Until we have electoral reform, Canada is best served by a single left of centre party. With Justin's coming departure the now decimated LPC may well be seeking a new direction.

Is it time for a Liberal-NDP merger?

The only thing New Democrats and Liberals dislike more than Conservatives is each other. But if they want to put an end to a future Pierre Poilievre government, they might have to find a way to put it aside and join forces more permanently.

www.nationalobserver.com

Liberals, NDP say no plans to merge, despite strong Conservative lead in polls

While there may appear to be strategic advantages to merging in the same way the Progressive Conservative and Canadian Alliance parties united in 2003, no such formal alliance is being contemplated, party spokespeople say.

www.ipolitics.ca

If not a merger, then at least agree to not run competing candidates in left leaning ridings that split the vote and lead to CPC wins.

I'd rather electoral reform over a merger. I think there is a room for a centre-left party and a left wing party.

 

[adma]

I'd rather electoral reform over a merger. I think there is a room for a centre-left party and a left wing party.

And I'd rather not have Longest Ballot Committee tactics to make that happen. That gang's the electoral equivalent of Stonehenge spraypainting or tossing tomato soup on a Van Gogh...

 

[Admiral Beez]

And I'd rather not have Longest Ballot Committee tactics to make that happen. That gang's the electoral equivalent of Stonehenge spraypainting or tossing tomato soup on a Van Gogh...

How does a ranked ballot get us to that?

 

[adma]

How does a ranked ballot get us to that?

It's not about the actuality of ranked ballots; it's about electoral-reform-advocacy as an alibi to spam a ballot paper w/80+ candidates. Just like you don't have to be in forceful disagreement with Just Stop Oil's cause to be in disagreement with their techniques...