afransen
Senior Member
This is me being happy that Furey and Saunders are splitting the troglodyte vote.
New Mainstreet poll has Bailao gaining traction. It was conducted yesterday, after Tory's endorsement.
Chow - 30%
Bailao - 22%
Furey - 13%
Saunders - 12%
Matlow - 9%
Hunter - 5%
Brown - 2%
Bradford - 2%
Also a new poll from Viewpoints. I'm unsure if it was polled before or after the Tory endorsement.
Chow - 35%
Saunders - 16%
Bailao - 12%
Furey - 10%
Matlow - 10%
Bradford - 8%
Hunter - 6%
Not sure how much Tory's endorsement of Bailão would take away from Chow, rather than take from Saunders or Furey.New Mainstreet poll has Bailao gaining traction. It was conducted yesterday, after Tory's endorsement.
Also a new poll from Viewpoints. I'm unsure if it was polled before or after the Tory endorsement.
As discussed in this Urbanist Agenda podcast episode (NotJustBikes&RMTransit), the overlap is such that some progressives might vote for Bailão to prevent Saunders or Furey from winning. However, if Bailão is truly in second place behind Chow, that motivation disappears.Not sure how much Tory's endorsement of Bailão would take away from Chow, rather than take from Saunders or Furey.
Chow is such a well known person in this city that those decided enough to declare a vote for her are probably aware of where she sits on the political spectrum relative to Tory.
I'm not so sure their Venn circles for Chow and Bailão do much overlapping.
If there is overlap, those aware of only the progressive past actions of Bailão may now be thinking twice.
Must admit that I have some reservations about Olivia, but with both Ford and Tory opposed, my vote is confirmed!Yup, just got one tonight.
Folks, this is what "staying out of the election" looks like.
Y'know something, I'd allow for flipping the hypothesis a bit.Not sure how much Tory's endorsement of Bailão would take away from Chow, rather than take from Saunders or Furey.
Chow is such a well known person in this city that those decided enough to declare a vote for her are probably aware of where she sits on the political spectrum relative to Tory.
I'm not so sure their Venn circles for Chow and Bailão do much overlapping.
If there is overlap, those aware of only the progressive past actions of Bailão may now be thinking twice.
Ford just doesn’t get how unpopular he is with Torontonians. Even PC supporters outside of Etobicoke hold their nose when marking their provincial ballots.
Thus my "if" in my final sentence: "That is, *if* Mainstreet's any kind of foretelling.".Bailao's post-endorsement bump is entirely fabricated by Mainstreet. All campaign she's been polling way, way higher in Mainstreet polls than in polls by other companies.
Then in the last two polls by them something changed, and their numbers looked a lot like the other polling companies, with Chow in a distant lead and Bailao down with the rest of the also-rans in the low teens.
22% looks good, but Mainstreet also put out polls with her at 20% and 21% 2 and 5 weeks ago respectively. The +9% jump in a matter of days looks like a huge movement for Bailao but only compared to their last two polls, which were outliers for them. It's a lot less impressive when I frame it as a +1% jump in the last 5 weeks.