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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

Who gets your vote for Mayor of Toronto?

  • Ana Bailao

    Votes: 18 16.4%

  • Brad Bradford

    Votes: 3 2.7%

  • Olivia Chow

    Votes: 58 52.7%

  • Mitzie Hunter

    Votes: 2 1.8%

  • Josh Matlow

    Votes: 20 18.2%

  • Mark Saunders

    Votes: 4 3.6%

  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.5%
  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
vic said:
28 people so far on the official list:
www.toronto.ca

Elections

Unofficial results for the Councillor Ward 15, Don Valley West by-election are available, including vote totals from advance voting, mail-in voting and election day.
www.toronto.ca www.toronto.ca
Click to expand...

Frank D'Angelo, the only candidate more of a joke than Mammo.
 
All these low profile politicians are really overestimating their odds. Or is there an auxiliary benefit to just having run?
 
Bradford not wasting time, I got my first auto-dial pitch from him this morning.

His website is also up, though no actual policy on it as yet, just the usual attempts to solicit info/donations, and this:

1680626929065.png
 
mjl08 said:
New April 2-3 poll from Mainstreet (behind paywall)

24% - Chow
23% - Bailao
13% - Saunders
9% - Matlow
8% - Bradford
8% - Penalosa
7% - Hunter
****
8% - Other candidate

www.qpbriefing.com

Bailão, Chow out in front in new Mainstreet poll of Toronto mayoral race

A new Mainstreet Research poll shows Ana Bailão and Olivia Chow leading the pack
www.qpbriefing.com www.qpbriefing.com
Click to expand...

Lets compare these numbers to the Forum Poll of about a week ago:

Chow +10
Bailao +17
Saunders -
Matlow -2
Bradford +5
Penalosa +3
Hunter -

The upticks far outweighing the downs is coming mostly from fewer undecideds though, those are still at 33%
 
mjl08 said:
New April 2-3 poll from Mainstreet (behind paywall)

24% - Chow
23% - Bailao
13% - Saunders
9% - Matlow
8% - Bradford
8% - Penalosa
7% - Hunter
****
8% - Other candidate
Click to expand...

This is much more in line with the kind of situation I was expecting vs. the previous poll that had Saunders so high and Bailao so low.

Saunders being lower here is good for the city and good for the election I think. If Saunders is a threat to winning we'll just get stuck in strategic lesser evil fear voting pushing people to safe candidates and making it hard for other candidates to gain support to overcome the hurdle. I welcome a situation where different candidates can put forward ideas and attract votes and support without people feeling compelled to go to a safe candidate or one they wouldn't otherwise vote for due to strategic voting.

And even though my recent post was sharply critical of Bailao, she's certainly not a terrible result as mayor (I find the dishonesty around the presentation of the Gardiner ""~plan~"" and such so frustrating in particular because I expect better of her and find it depressing to see her do that) and I think would be better than Tory. She's certainly not going to inspire nearly as much fear-based strategic voting as Ford or Saunders.

On Penalosa, I agree he should drop out. But I wonder if he might think Matlow should drop out and support him. Given the headwinds against Matlow, perhaps Gil actually would be the better candidate — or thinks he is — for a shake-things-up progressive candidate. But with Gil what it comes down to for me is I just don't think he will, can, or even intends to build the political machine necessary to win. At least Matlow probably will bring a perspective of running an election campaign, get out the vote, fundraising, etc.

Presuming say half or more even of the Bradford vote collapses into Bailao that puts her over the top. But if Chow's in the race there's a lot of potential sources she could pick up votes from due to either general progressive alignment but also her being a recognizable figure: Penalosa, Matlow, Hunter, from undecideds and even probably from candidates you wouldn't expect. Who knows, you could even have a Saunders -> Chow crossover voter from someone who isn't as traditionally partisan-aligned or some may be more inclined to vote for people who they know of as public figures.

Bailao could also pick up votes from Hunter, Saunders, others. Honestly not sure how this is going to play out if Chow's in the race. I think she could win and I think Bailao could win, but I might give the edge to Chow based on public-figure awareness and perhaps more other candidate sources of votes to draw on.

If Chow doesn't enter the race I have even less clue of what will happen. Where does her 24% go? There's no obvious candidate.
 
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concrete_and_light said:
This is much more in line with the kind of situation I was expecting vs. the previous poll that had Saunders so high and Bailao so low.

Saunders being lower here is good for the city and good for the election I think. If Saunders is a threat to winning we'll just get stuck in strategic lesser evil fear voting pushing people to safe candidates and making it hard for other candidates to gain support to overcome the hurdle. I welcome a situation where different candidates can put forward ideas and attract votes and support without people feeling compelled to go to a safe candidate or one they wouldn't otherwise vote for due to strategic voting.

And even though my recent post was sharply critical of Bailao, she's certainly not a terrible result as mayor (I find the dishonesty around the presentation of the Gardiner ""~plan~"" and such so frustrating in particular because I expect better of her and find it depressing to see her do that) and I think would be better than Tory. She's certainly not going to inspire nearly as much fear-based strategic voting as Ford or Saunders.

On Penalosa, I agree he should drop out. But I wonder if he might think Matlow should drop out and support him. Given the headwinds against Matlow, perhaps Gil actually would be the better candidate — or thinks he is — for a shake-things-up progressive candidate. But with Gil what it comes down to for me is I just don't think he will, can, or even intends to build the political machine necessary to win. At least Matlow probably will bring a perspective of running an election campaign, get out the vote, fundraising, etc.

Presuming say half or more even of the Bradford vote collapses into Bailao that puts her over the top. But if Chow's in the race there's a lot of potential sources she could pick up votes from due to either general progressive alignment but also her being a recognizable figure: Penalosa, Matlow, Hunter, from undecideds and even probably from candidates you wouldn't expect. Who knows, you could even have a Saunders -> Chow crossover voter from someone who isn't as traditionally partisan-aligned or some may be more inclined to vote for people who they know of as public figures.

Bailao could also pick up votes from Hunter, Saunders, others. Honestly not sure how this is going to play out if Chow's in the race. I think she could win and I think Bailao could win, but I might give the edge to Chow based on public-figure awareness and perhaps more other candidate sources of votes to draw on.

If Chow doesn't enter the race I have even less clue of what will happen. Where does her 24% go? There's no obvious candidate.
Click to expand...

If it comes down to Olivia Chow vs Ana Bailao, I can't help but think Bailao edges it out. Bailao will out fundraise Chow, has a solid team behind her and I suspect she'll have a good ground game. Plus, she is likely to have the most public support from other politicians. Also, based on the recent numbers released from Mainstreet, it's Bailao that's the true frontrunner as more people state they would not vote for Chow.

That said, if Olivia Chow jumps in and Josh Matlow drops out, I can see her winning it on June 26th. Chow would need to quickly build a good team, fundraise like crazy and have the best ground game in the city. Basically, if it's Chow vs Bailao, I would give Bailao a 55 - 60% at winning. If Chow doesn't enter, I think the majority of her support goes to Matlow and Hunter.
 
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These polls are largely based on name recognition, as opposed to serious and strong support. They will probably substantially change after 2 months of campaigning and debates.

Which leads me to Chow: she is well past her best before date. Further, the last time she ran, she blew a huge lead and ended up 3rd, behind two conservatives. She looks fine on paper but she is a poor campaigner, with perhaps more disliking her than supportive or indifferent.

I think Saunders is a bit of wild card. I am not sure as to how he will come across on the campaign trail, but there could be an appetite for a "law and order" candidate. If he can add to that aspect of his resume, it could be a two way race at the top between him and "insert name here". I think it is just as likely that he is a huge flop in the end (which would be fine by me).

I saw a Brad Bradford (I am starting the rumour that his middle name is Brad) ad on instagram today. It was unintentionally hilarious. He spends the whole video walking and talking in various locations. But not just casually walking. He is in a hurry. I assume they wanted to show that he is "man of action." Instead, the video comes across as a parody of The West Wing. You just want to yell out "slow the f*#k down".
 
alklay said:
These polls are largely based on name recognition, as opposed to serious and strong support. They will probably substantially change after 2 months of campaigning and debates.

Which leads me to Chow: she is well past her best before date. Further, the last time she ran, she blew a huge lead and ended up 3rd, behind two conservatives. She looks fine on paper but she is a poor campaigner, with perhaps more disliking her than supportive or indifferent.

I think Saunders is a bit of wild card. I am not sure as to how he will come across on the campaign trail, but there could be an appetite for a "law and order" candidate. If he can add to that aspect of his resume, it could be a two way race at the top between him and "insert name here". I think it is just as likely that he is a huge flop in the end (which would be fine by me).

I saw a Brad Bradford (I am starting the rumour that his middle name is Brad) ad on instagram today. It was unintentionally hilarious. He spends the whole video walking and talking in various locations. But not just casually walking. He is in a hurry. I assume they wanted to show that he is "man of action." Instead, the video comes across as a parody of The West Wing. You just want to yell out "slow the f*#k down".
Click to expand...
Though as I said before, one thing that hampered Chow in '14 is that she was recovering from partial facial paralysis--and in any case, there was a strange "reluctance" to her campaign, as if she knew in her heart that she was being arbitrarily trotted out by progressives as Jack's Widow! Can't Lose!. And even her "huge lead" always had a softness about it; at her best, she had problems going over a 30something share, so one could easily foresee it all going blooey.

As for Saunders: I wonder if his early polling bump had to do with "Ford Nation: this is your man" viral messaging--and his sinking 10 points or so now has a strange whiff of Chicago's Paul Vallas in its "maybe it *isn't* all about law & order, after all" forewarning....
 
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