2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[Admiral Beez]

Toronto’s mayoral candidates say they can fix the city’s jammed roads. The experts aren’t so sure

Those vying for Toronto’s top job may agree it’s tough to get around the city but their fixes vary.

www.thestar.com

The new mayor needs to restrict/deter car traffic from entering the city by encouraging those coming into the city for work, entertainment or tourism to take transit. But the transit has to be efficient, without nutbars and vagrants.

 

[christiesplits]

Having an incumbent-free election where the feeling that one's vote can really make a difference probably helps.

Could be. Or, people are preparing for the summer holidays and will be out of town.

 

[ShonTron]

Could be. Or, people are preparing for the summer holidays and will be out of town.

Or preparing for the post-Pride hangover.

 

[adma]

If this poll is to be believed, Matlow's support has started to shift to Chow. Speaking to friends at Dundas West fest they begrudgingly have voted Chow, but we're Matlow supporters originally. I can see alot more of this happening on eday with Brown supporters as well.

My feeling is, the only reason Brown's polling this high is because her name was prompted.

But still: ahead of Bradford. It's like he's headed t/w being this year's edition of Tom Jakobek in '03 (same home political turf, too)

 

[SubHuman]

Could be. Or, people are preparing for the summer holidays and will be out of town.

It might be that more people have learned about it, and now understand that they can get it done sooner and don't have to wait for the crowds on election day. It doesn't require a reason or excuse. For the last several elections (at all levels) I've gone on the first day of advanced voting and never had to wait in a line.

 

[Admiral Beez]

My feeling is, the only reason Brown's polling this high is because her name was prompted.

I’ve never heard of Chloe Brown. I had to look her up.

 

[afransen]

CAPREIT owns something like 67,000 units nation wide; at a current market cap of 8.4B; buying it out works out to $125,000 a unit; that's a pretty sweet-heart price.

Market cap is ~8B, but enterprise value is closer to 15.4B. That is, the market value of those units is higher, the $125k is just the 'equity' financing part of each unit, there is also debt financing involved, so the per unit value is closer to $230k.

 

[Northern Light]

Market cap is ~8B, but enterprise value is closer to 15.4B. That is, the market value of those units is higher, the $125k is just the 'equity' financing part of each unit, there is also debt financing involved, so the per unit value is closer to $230k.

Fair point, but still a fair value compared with new build though.

 

[zang]

New Mainstreet.

Chow - 33%
Bailao - 17%
Saunders - 14%
Furey - 9%
Hunter - 8%
Matlow - 6%
Brown - 5%
Bradford - 3%

So, anyone else thinking that Ana Bailão is getting major hits for being first on a phone poll that probably lists candidates alphabetically and don't randomize choices?

 

[christiesplits]

But still: ahead of Bradford. It's like he's headed t/w being this year's edition of Tom Jakobek in '03 (same home political turf, too)

Thank God there was no social media in 2003. Can you imagine how annoying Jakobek and Nunziata would have been?

 

[Fresco]

Ahhh, yes. Look who's back to beat a dead horse

And guess who keeps making excuses for her.

Democracy sucks doesnt it, when we get to question our (future) leaders??!!

 

[christiesplits]

So, anyone else thinking that Ana Bailão is getting major hits for being first on a phone poll that probably lists candidates alphabetically and don't randomize choices?

Good question. I'm not an expert in survey design. I know some polling firms randomize the ordering for each call.

 

[ShonTron]

Fresco, you’ve been warned. You made your point, we’re all aware of your point, move on.

 

[toonderly]

So, anyone else thinking that Ana Bailão is getting major hits for being first on a phone poll that probably lists candidates alphabetically and don't randomize choices?

Obviously I can't know whether a survey is randomizing the order for different recipients, but I can say that the poll calls I have received did not present the candidates alphabetically and in different questions presented the candidates in different orders. And in the last two calls Ana Bailão's name was pronounced incorrectly and 3 different ways.

Unfortunately I don't remember which pollsters were conducting the polls. I don't think I have had one from Mainstreet.

 

[zang]

Good question. I'm not an expert in survey design. I know some polling firms randomize the ordering for each call.

It could also be that Mainstreet has something in their methodology that biases towards centrists over leftists.

It’s not like it hasn’t happened before. Twice.

What Alberta and B.C. can learn from Mainstreet Research’s poll-gone-wrong in Nanaimo | The Star