afransen
Senior Member
Makes me wonder if Russia will end up losing Crimea out of this ordeal.
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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War
- Thread starter Towered
- Start date
Towered
Senior Member
I think I read somewhere that they've lost 20-25% of the total combat forces they had assembled for the invasion, which includes upward of 20,000 Russian troops KIA. Those are staggering losses for only 6 weeks of battle.
Towered
Senior Member
Until recently I would have thought that a total pipe dream, but...
Considering just how badly Russia is doing, as long as Ukraine holds out a few more months and continues to increasingly inflict massive losses (and they will, given that they're going to receive heavier weapons from the West), a situation could arise where the Russian army is depleted to the point where Ukraine might have an opportunity to actually go on the offensive. I would love to see that happen, but isn't one of the problems with Crimea that the vast majority of the population is ethnically (and therefore pro) Russian?
Northern Light
Superstar
In short, nothing I disagree with here, great analysis on your part.
Ok, my source is getting his knuckles wrapped. LOL. I was told, 1/5
Clearly not correct.
Ok, my source is getting his knuckles wrapped. LOL. I was told, 1/5
Clearly not correct.
Richard White
Senior Member
I saw this on twitter and it sums things up quite nicely.
I wonder how long Putin can remain in power if this war edges closer and closer to his own Vietnam or Afghanistan
I wonder how long Putin can remain in power if this war edges closer and closer to his own Vietnam or Afghanistan
kEiThZ
Superstar
This is the outcome I'm hoping for. But that's a very difficult thing to achieve. The Crimean peninsula is difficult to access, and well connected to the Russian mainland. Makes it hard to move forces in substantially and easier for Russia to counter. On the other hand, getting all of the Donbas back might not be that hard.
Richard White
Senior Member
Long before Putin loses Crimea, he will lose his grip on power.
The longer this war drags on and goes badly, the more likely he is to "taste something funny" in his Vodka.
kEiThZ
Superstar
This is way worse than Vietnam or Afghanistan. The Russians are taking WWII campaign level losses. And other than Ukraine, none of their perceived adversaries are taking on any damage. NATO is about to flood Ukraine with some serious firepower and do real damage to Russian forces. The next two weeks are going to be worse than the last two.
And Putin is stuck. He has riled up his population so much, he can't get them to back down now. And there's probably people inside the regime who don't want to go down with him.
Richard White
Senior Member
This was more or less my point.
Russia is having their asses handed to them and are badly losing this war. They aren't going to get out of this looking like saviors.
Putin has riled up a chunk of the population but that's also a double edged sword. Yes it turns people against Ukraine but it also raises many questions if Russia loses the war to them.
Russians see Ukraine as inferior. Losing to them would be a major insult and reflect very badly on Putin.
Those people who don't want to go down with Putin may flip if for no other reason than to save themselves. As I said before, it's better to have Putin poisoned or turfed than to end up in the Hague alongside him ala Slobodan Milosevic.
kEiThZ
Superstar
For those who say, "But Russia has a large army they could mobilize, I want you to understand that paper stocks don't translate well to real life when you have this level of corruption:
www.ibtimes.sg
And it's not just maintenance budget and parts stolen. They could well be robbing the personnel budget and reporting higher numbers of personnel up the chain than they really have.
Potemkin military.
Russian Commander of 13th Tank Regiment Dies by Suicide Due to Faulty Tanks in Reserve? Engines Stolen, Claims Ukraine
Western officials released the name of seven Russian generals who they claimed have been killed or sacked since the war began.
www.ibtimes.sg
And it's not just maintenance budget and parts stolen. They could well be robbing the personnel budget and reporting higher numbers of personnel up the chain than they really have.
Potemkin military.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Getting rid of Putin will be difficult. More than anyone, he knows how the Russian assassination game works and has tailored his security apparatus to avoid it. This is also why he's cracking down hard on his intelligence community right now. Also, it's hard to motivate anyone to get rid of him, while him and the war are still popular. Few more months of losses will change that. My personal bet (on Predictit) is that Putin is gone this year. But hey, I am an optimist.
By contrast, Crimea is a very difficult, but entirely plausible military goal for the Ukrainians. Unfortunately, I think losing Crimea might well motivate Putin to order a general mobilization. So the Ukrainians have to play this one carefully.
kEiThZ
Superstar
This is what desperation looks like:
Northern Light
Superstar
Bjays92
Senior Member
The use of the TB2 as a distraction by Ukraine is another genius tactical move.
Ukraine seems to be saying the ship is sunk/unsalvageable, Russia is saying the fire is extinguished and the ship is being towed. Anyone here have insight on which may be more accurate?
Ukraine seems to be saying the ship is sunk/unsalvageable, Russia is saying the fire is extinguished and the ship is being towed. Anyone here have insight on which may be more accurate?
vic
Senior Member
If it's not at the bottom of the Black Sea yet, they can whack it again. Either way, it's probably not of much use for a long while.