2019 Canadian Federal Election

[BurlOak]

It was prime and ripe, but May stated some odd things, not so much as the following quotes infer, albeit I think @lenaitch was close, if not right, but May's proclamation on pipelines and national energy self-sufficiency violated even New Green realist thinking. May surprised me with that.

I think you misunderstand. There is no mention of pipelines in this article.
Greens call for ban on foreign oil imports, using Alberta oil instead

May has been very clear about no pipelines.
Green leader Elizabeth May on Notley, Kinder Morgan and pipeline 'propaganda'

• May marched with thousands of protesters at anti-pipeline rally in Burnaby, B.C., last weekend

If we combine these two articles, I believe May wants to transport crude across the country by bicycle.

 

[steveintoronto]

I think you misunderstand. There is no mention of pipelines in this article.

I mispoke, but the gist is correct. From memory, she touted rail, which is an even more absurd suggestion. The bottom line is that market-forces dictate almost everything about bitumen, Greens or Cons beside.

Drivers are like smokers, they'll buy the cheapest filth and expect Nature to pay the bill. No amount of coercion is going to change that, but their pockets will. As long as Canada is in a freer trade deal with the US, that will remain to be the case. When western oil can be sold cheaper, then it will sell.

From the CBC article @BurlOak links:

The promise to make Canada energy independent is — perhaps unexpectedly — in line with the economic and climate strategy of Conservative leader Andrew Scheer.

Scheer's plan calls for Canada to import no foreign oil by 2030, partly by planning an energy corridor across Canada that could simplify the construction of pipelines able to move Alberta oil to any coast. He sees it as a way to find additional domestic markets for Canada's oilsands, in a bid to increase their production.

They're both out to lunch, without breath mints. And Trudeau's spiel is just as wonky.

Bitumen is yesterday's bitch. There's a reason that Big Oil is moving into alternate energy. Can you guess why that might be? What would Capitalists know about making money, eh?

 

[lenaitch]

I suppose I'm missing some points. If want to use only out own crude, we still have to get it, or its refined/distilled products to the refineries and ultimately the markets. A link I saw shows that Quebec still gets about half of its crude from outside Canada and I think Irving even more.
I'm not sure I get Sheer's 'energy corridor'. Beyond petroleum, we already have transcontinental rail corridors (if not where they are ideally located for today's society, but at least they are in place) and electrical grid-ties and much easier to route than pipelines and need to connect to load centres along the way. I also think he is downplaying the aboriginal land issues, or think he is smarter than the Liberals in negotiating them.
Quebec's announcement is interesting. In terms of domestic load they are already winter-weighed (versus Ontario which is more summer weighted because of more extensive natural gas distribution). They have the advantage of abundant hydro-electric supply but a lot of that is contract committed to the N/E US. Another element that may come into play is watershed management is light of the recent repeat flooding. Many claim that the maintenance of headponds to maximize energy production has contributed to the problem.

 

[steveintoronto]

^ The 'elephant in the room' with oily boots on is US Shale. It has knocked the feet out from under the Western Elephant. What's so ironic with Alberta's stance is the denial of where the Market is heading.

Before the Shale Revolution? Westerners would have an argument. OPEC and the US have swamped the boat, and the only way to balance it again is with further subsidies to the Cdn oil patch.

If there's energy to be subsidized, it's gas, and electricity in many forms. Not the music either May or Kenney want to hear. And the Libs will be eternal fools for buying KM's Trans-Mountain.

As to an 'energy corridor'...it's up there with the escalator to the Moon. Oddly, as much as all the ruckus has been about pipelines, Canada doesn't have the federal authority to establish a national electric grid, unlike the US which has immense power to doing so, complete with 'eminent domain' powers, something Canada can only dream of.

Scheer would do well to check his facts...not that facts matter that much to his constituency.

Addendum: Putting aside the 'unmentionable' 'pipeline' aspect of Scheer's "Energy Corridor" (it's such an incredibly transparent bait and switch) here's the last time the 'national electric grid' concept was approached:

Business·Analysis
An east-west power grid, Canada's elusive national dream

Kyle Bakx · CBC News · Posted: Feb 14, 2016 5:00 AM ET | Last Updated: February 14, 2016
[...]
A big and expensive idea
Similar to most large infrastructure projects, the price tag for transmission lines can be hefty. The longer the distance, the bigger the sticker shock.

In Manitoba, the cost estimate of the Bipole III transmission line has climbed from $2.2 billion in 2007, to $3.3 billion in 2011, and up to $4.6 billion in 2014. It's a 1,400-kilometre line. An east-west grid connecting the four western Canadian provinces would likely span at least 2,000 kilometres.

A second impediment stands in the way of an agreement between provinces. It's not only having the political will to strike such a deal, but finding out how one province's system can mesh with another. This would be complicated in the case of Alberta, which has a deregulated electricity market, where private companies can build power plants and transmission lines under the watch of regulators.

Maybe that's why Alberta Premier Rachel Notley has been cool to the idea of an east-west grid, describing it as "a bit hypothetical."

Traditionally, electricity has flowed north-south because distances between Canadian supply and U.S. demand can be shorter than the east-west gap between generation in one province and demand in another.
[...]
Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec produce excess electricity they often sell to the United States. At the same time, other provinces like Alberta and British Columbia have to import electricity in periods of peak demand.

In 2014, Canada exported 59.1 terawatt hours of electricity, but it also imported 12.8 terawatt hours. An east-west grid would share more power between provinces and reduce the need for buying and selling south of the border.
[...]
Thon points to the Mid-continent Independent System Operator (MISO) as an example. It's a connection between 15 states and the province of Manitoba. Electricity is interchanged to keep everyone powered up.

"It's a bit ironic that that kind of value is happening with Canadian provinces connecting to the United States, but we can't seem to make it happen in Canada," said Thon in an interview with CBC News.

An east-west grid makes sense, but he doubts it will ever become a reality.

"It will never happen, because it's a little bit like the pipeline debate we are having right now in Canada about who gets the benefits," said Thon.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/east-west-power-grid-electricity-christy-clark-alberta-1.3444318

But worry not Mr Scheer! Your devotees will never ask questions...

 

[adma]

Hopefully the Tories pick up both Vancouver Granville and Markham-Stoufville. It would serve the Liberals (and Greens) right.

Hey, who knows what could happen

 

[christiesplits]

Elizabeth May is endorsing the Alberta oil sands. What's next, the NDP endorsing scab workers?

Green Party calls for Canada to stop using foreign oil — and rely on Alberta’s instead | Globalnews.ca

Green party Leader Elizabeth May says saving the world from climate change requires Canada to get off oil before the middle of the century.

globalnews.ca

 

[steveintoronto]

Elizabeth May is endorsing the Alberta oil sands. What's next, the NDP endorsing scab workers?

Green Party calls for Canada to stop using foreign oil — and rely on Alberta’s instead | Globalnews.ca

Green party Leader Elizabeth May says saving the world from climate change requires Canada to get off oil before the middle of the century.

globalnews.ca

It's bizarre. It's discussed a few posts back. It's not only bizarre in environmental terms, it's just not sensible in economic and business terms either. It's May's Waterloo.

But to continue on "May's Waterloo"....UK PM May as opposed to Elizabeth, and the warnings for Cdn federal parties:

U.K. Conservatives could suffer same fate as Canadian PC party
By Jonathan Manthorpe. Published on May 27, 2019 3:52pm

For years Britain’s ruling Conservative Party has been troubled by nightmare visions of its own destruction in what it calls “Canadian Territory.”

That disaster scenario came roaring through the night at the Tories and their hapless caretaker leader, Prime Minister Theresa May, on Sunday as the results of the election for the European Parliament were announced.

The Conservatives had their worst showing in any national election since the party was founded in 1834. They got only 9 per cent of the popular vote and won only four of the 73 seats Britain has in the 751-seat European Parliament.
[...]
With only an insecure minority government, a new election always a possibility and the campaign to replace May already well under way, the Tories are now confronting the same fate as Canada’s Progressive Conservative Party in 1993.

Voter disenchantment after almost 10 years of PC government led by Brian Mulroney left the Tories with only two of the 295 House of Commons seats after the 1993 election.

The party, as Progressive Conservatives, has never recovered. In the following years it was unable to resist the takeover, on unfavourable terms, by the radical right Reform Alliance and the creation of the modern Conservative Party.

Many British Tories look at the Canadian Conservative Party today and see a less centrist, more bitter and mean-spirited formation that the old Progressive Conservative Party (though few of them understand the uniquely Canadian concept of the Red Tory) and shudder at the prospect of them same thing happening to them.
[...]

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/05/27/u-k-conservatives-could-suffer-same-fate-as-canadian-pc-party/

Fracturing and fragmentation is coming to Cdn federal parties, and I welcome it.

 

[JGHali]

I’m unsure how the British Tories post-1979 represent anything “centrist”.

Also, where is the evidence of this fracturing and fragmentation of federal parties? A few independents with questionable re-election prospects? Bernier’s insignificant vanity sideshow? Or the Green “surge” based on irrelevant results in a province with the population of Kingston and a low turnout by-election win on Vancouver Island by a former would-be NDP candidate?

 

[steveintoronto]

I’m unsure how the British Tories post-1979 represent anything “centrist”.

That's exactly the point. Read what was posted again. As for Cdn parties...the points have been made in posts prior. It was the Con's turn post Mulroney, are you unaware of the the name Preston Manning? (Btw: I have respect for Manning, even though he's not my 'cup of tea', it's the nasty shits who used his platform to promote a hateful agenda who are the problem).

Whatever, I'm not about to detail every point that's been well-made prior.

 

[Videodrome]

Scheer says bigots, extremists and racists aren’t welcome in Conservative Party

During a speech on immigration, Scheer sought to dispel Liberal attempts to portray the Conservatives as anti-immigrant, saying his government would be open to all races and religions and lauded how newcomers have made Canada a better place

www.theglobeandmail.com

Do you believe Scheer?

Conservative candidate for Burnaby North-Seymour can't hide her social views any longer

When Heather Leung was asked by the NOW about her views on social issues before the 2018 Burnaby city election, she didn’t want to talk about it.

www.burnabynow.com

This is who Scheer picks...

 

[steveintoronto]

To get above the Lib-Con fray, it's useful to quote int'l agencies who study events and factors from above and in a much more neutral manner. Not infallible, by any means, but a hell of a lot greater clarity than the domestic turf war: (I'd missed this in the TorStar, their web layout is aimed at iPhone pea brains, and a lot of their better content is buried as it has too many large words for the iMemyself crowd. This is being run opening page at the Guelph Mercury website)

[...]
On debts and deficits, the IMF has no complaint about the federal path although it chastises Ottawa for having no clear fiscal goal. (Scheer has said he would balance the budget but the path to get there is very unclear. Trudeau has said that he would keep the debt burden on a downward track). The fund’s main concern is for the provinces, where any fiscal windfalls should be put towards paying down debt and gradual moves made towards balanced budgets by first carefully determining what is causing the imbalance in the first place.

And slow growth is stubborn. The Canadian economy is not really capable of growing quickly at this point, and one of the culprits is provincial trade barriers. The IMF figures that removal of those barriers would raise the gross domestic product by a whopping 4 per cent. It’s a perennial challenge. [...]

https://www.guelphmercury.com/opini...our-economy-canadians-deserve-a-clear-choice/

*4% increase in GDP* ! I haven't heard that mentioned even once by *anyone* in this campaign. I suggest reading the entire article.

The IMF report summary is here: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Article...ding-statement-of-the-2019-article-iv-mission

 

[Northern Light]

To get above the Lib-Con fray, it's useful to quote int'l agencies who study events and factors from above and in a much more neutral manner. Not infallible, by any means, but a hell of a lot greater clarity than the domestic turf war: (I'd missed this in the TorStar, their web layout is aimed at iPhone pea brains, and a lot of their better content is buried as it has too many large words for the iMemyself crowd. This is being run opening page at the Guelph Mercury website)

https://www.guelphmercury.com/opini...our-economy-canadians-deserve-a-clear-choice/

*4% increase in GDP* ! I haven't heard that mentioned even once by *anyone* in this campaign. I suggest reading the entire article.

The IMF report summary is here: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Article...ding-statement-of-the-2019-article-iv-mission

I love facts.

So let's consider some on the question of the federal deficit.

Federal revenues, in one year, 2017-2018 rose by 20.1B; a 6.9% increase w/no substantial tax hikes.

Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2017-2018

Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2017-2018

www.fin.gc.ca

Inflation for the same period was about 2.3% and population growth 1.4%

The Daily — Consumer Price Index: Annual review, 2018

The annual average increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.3% in 2018, following gains of 1.6% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2016. The increase in 2018 was the largest since 2011 and coincided with strong labour market conditions, including a low unemployment rate throughout the year and strong...

www150.statcan.gc.ca

The Daily — Canada's population estimates: Total population, July 1, 2018

According to preliminary estimates, Canada's population was 37,058,856 on July 1, 2018, up 518,588 from July 1, 2017. This translates into an increase of approximately one person every minute over the last 12 months.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

Together, these equal a necessitated or justified increase in federal expenses of 3.7%

That means 3.2% could have gone to deficit reduction in the absence of new program expenditures. (it didn't, but that's a separate issue).

That would result in a balanced budget in 2 years flat, while increasing program spending in line with population growth and inflation.

So the apocalypse is not nigh.

I happen to favour a balanced budget; and raising taxes, somewhat to expand the social safety net strategically; particularly in terms of offering pharmacare and dental care.

I think the Liberals can and should have done better.

That does not, unto itself, inspire any confidence in the Conservatives.

Both parties have squandered opportunities to enrich all Canadians, but the neediest first; and to show true fiscal discipline, which should not be confused with mindless budget cuts or freezes; anymore than it service improvements
should be assumed by mere fact of greater spending.

 

[Northern Light]

@steveintoronto

In respect of the IMF report........a great deal is vague..........but on the inter-provincial barriers issue, this much specificity is in the report:

Finance, business services, and insurance is by far the most important sector to benefit, reinforcing the value of efforts to unify securities regulations across provinces and enhance labor mobility.

The first, doesn't apply to banking which is substantively federal in Canada. I would be given to presume that they are talking about capital markets. Something that there have been efforts to unify w/some success, but this remains an incomplete project.

I'm uncertain as to what they include in 'business services'

But on the third, labour mobility, we all know the challenges.

Its time for an EU-style deal for Canada that insures all professional designations and licenses are recognized across Canada. Each province could retain control of the license/permit/credential system; but essential commonalities would be agreed on between the provinces.

Likewise, common minimum labour standards need to apply across the country, while allowing provinces to impose higher standards than the pan-Canadian minimum.

This would be similar to the EU which imposes a pan-national minimum of 4 weeks paid vacation for all workers, but allows nations to go further, but not lesser than these standards.

Note that currently everything from work week, to break time, to overtime to sick days varies from province to province. This poses companies seeking to grow beyond their home province.

 

[steveintoronto]

^ As per the report summary: I've yet to access the complete report (edit: Not yet published), but have found quoted sections in a few news-stories on it, one up at the FinPost, and a refreshingly neutral one for a PostMedia source:
https://business.financialpost.com/...response-to-the-imf-report-on-canadas-economy

From previous reading, IIRC the major problem for interprovincial trade is tariff barriers! (This is addressed in the EU, as referenced by yourself). The gist of the situation goes thus: "It's easier to trade across Canada's int'l borders than it is within them" especially as that pertains to the US (up until very recently) and with other nations we have FTAs with, not least because it is detailed and legally binding, unlike what we have with provinces.

This takes on a another dimension of hypocrisy with the pipeline debate, of which I defer to economics as to whether I'm pro or con on the issue (the economics are not good at all, but that's another issue). How can the Feds (mostly rightly) claim it's their jurisdiction to regulate and mandate pipelines when they don't do that for all goods inter-provincially? It's theatre of the absurd with expensive tickets.

As to the debt issue you mention, the IMF also feels that the Scheer stance leans to hysteria, and the Lib stance the other way, especially as that relates to the incredibly dangerous 'mortgage assistance' via 'relaxed stress tests' the Libs are touting as election goodies. Even the CMHC head is warning on it, an executive position mostly committed to being non-partisan and non-controversial.

And on that note, there might just be help on the horizon:

Liberal insiders looking at Mark Carney as Trudeau's successor
Toronto Star-9 hours ago
Liberal insiders looking at Mark Carney as Trudeau's successor ... to the party leadership for former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.

Canada's Liberal Party insiders see Carney as possible Trudeau ...
Reuters-5 hours ago
(Reuters) - A portion of Canada's ruling Liberal Party is looking at Bank of England Governor Mark Carney as a possible successor to its current ...
Liberal Insiders See Carney as Trudeau Successor, Star Reports
Bloomberg-8 hours ago
View all

- : Google

Temper that, however, with:
Will IMF be next stop for shooting star Mark Carney? - The Globe and

The above article is dated 2012....and he's had a number of offers to 'move up' in the financial world since. He does have family concerns though, and that alone is pulling him back to Ottawa. You couldn't get much better qualified PM material than this...and with it you wouldn't end up seeing talent like JWR and Philpott having to sit as Independents.

Addendum: Just catching up on the FP article linked above, and here's the point on GDP and provincial trade barriers: (The IMF is one of many orgs to point this out, it's been a glaring absurdity for generations)

[...]
The IMF is most discouraged by the Canadian federation’s obsession with doing a trade agreement with Donald Trump instead of pursuing one with itself. There might be no faster way to jolt productivity than to erase the ridiculous barriers to trade that make it easier for an Alberta-based maker of electronic gadgets to sell in Arizona than Ontario. The IMF estimated that internal free trade would boost GDP by almost four per cent. The positive economic shock from the new North American free-trade agreement is an end to uncertainty; initial estimates predict it will have little affect on GDP.

“Like a lot of Canadians, they’re baffled,” Andrea Stairs, who manages eBay Inc.’s Canadian business, said of her bosses’ reaction when told that goods and services don’t move across Canada freely. “We see the impact on small businesses,” she added in an interview. “Being able to connect with buyers across a vast region is a way to accelerate their business and stabilize their business when local conditions go bad.”
[...]

https://business.financialpost.com/...response-to-the-imf-report-on-canadas-economy

 

[lenaitch]

I love facts.

So let's consider some on the question of the federal deficit.

Federal revenues, in one year, 2017-2018 rose by 20.1B; a 6.9% increase w/no substantial tax hikes.

Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2017-2018

Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2017-2018

www.fin.gc.ca

Inflation for the same period was about 2.3% and population growth 1.4%

The Daily — Consumer Price Index: Annual review, 2018

The annual average increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.3% in 2018, following gains of 1.6% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2016. The increase in 2018 was the largest since 2011 and coincided with strong labour market conditions, including a low unemployment rate throughout the year and strong...

www150.statcan.gc.ca

The Daily — Canada's population estimates: Total population, July 1, 2018

According to preliminary estimates, Canada's population was 37,058,856 on July 1, 2018, up 518,588 from July 1, 2017. This translates into an increase of approximately one person every minute over the last 12 months.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

Together, these equal a necessitated or justified increase in federal expenses of 3.7%

That means 3.2% could have gone to deficit reduction in the absence of new program expenditures. (it didn't, but that's a separate issue).

That would result in a balanced budget in 2 years flat, while increasing program spending in line with population growth and inflation.

So the apocalypse is not nigh.

I happen to favour a balanced budget; and raising taxes, somewhat to expand the social safety net strategically; particularly in terms of offering pharmacare and dental care.

I think the Liberals can and should have done better.

That does not, unto itself, inspire any confidence in the Conservatives.

Both parties have squandered opportunities to enrich all Canadians, but the neediest first; and to show true fiscal discipline, which should not be confused with mindless budget cuts or freezes; anymore than it service improvements
should be assumed by mere fact of greater spending.

Or actually fund the military on a consistent and sustainable basis rather than treating it as a discretionary budget line, but that's just me.