2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[Cobra]

What suicide? You mean the ridings that won't vote for them in 2018, won't vote for them in 2022?

Ask yourself a simple question. How many ridings would flip PC if they built the DRL? Alternatively, if they spent that money on HSR to London or Yonge North, how many ridings would flip PC? There's your answer on what will be getting built.

DRL has a pretty large consensus, especially when you add Relief Long. The rest of the city isn't blind to the necessity of the Relief Line and it's potential benefits to the entire network. The lack of Relief Line is hurting EVERYONE, including me at Don Mills & Sheppard where I pretty much almost gave up on the Yonge Line and Uber pool back and forth when I need to get downtown.

You'd be right if we were talking Waterfront LRT but Relief Line helps everyone.

 

[kEiThZ]

Yeah, developers are definitely craving the most expensive land in the GTHA to build and provide servicing and infrastructure to, over developing in fully-serviced areas.

You're paying for the cost of the land. Not the developers. They only get the value added. And the profit margin is substantially more for houses than condos. If what I say wasn't true, why was Ford secretly meeting with developers?

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...open-up-greenbelt-to-housing-development.html

According to you those developers shouldn't care right?

These are the kinds of opinions that make me wonder if some of you actual talk to any regular people, off this forum. Have you not heard about people around complaining about house prices? Have you not had friends, family, etc. express a desire for more than a condo?

I hate the suburban lifestyle. But I'm not so presumptuous to assume that most people are like me.

If what it comes down to is making money on land, then building transit unlocks incredible amounts of development potential and therefore money. The Relief Line North would be a prime example of this.

The Relief Line North can't be done without the core portion of the DRL which offers little reward to developers and little to no electoral return to the PCs. You know which transit projects line up quite nicely for developers? Expanding GO services and Yonge North.

 

[Cobra]

You misunderstood. I was implying he would be providing part of the Holy grail of downtown transit for the Lefts faithful voters. It will pay dividends for upcoming elections as he can claim that hes delivering where Left failed . Its a Political wedge and a statement to the critics that will be attacking his personal life to no end, it will help keep his solid base that hes unfairly under attack. If he delivers the DRL the attacks will look even more petty. Its a no brainer politically for a piece of infrastructure badly needed.

Seems like its in Toronto/parts of Canada that infrastructure spending has been polarizing between left and right.

Conservative governments around the world have spent on infrastructure. Hell even the super conservative US subsidize transit.

Things needs to go back to normal and we need to let go of Mike Harris because there was a time wher PC governments built transit.

To me saying that PC=no transit is truly nonsense. Where past PC government chose other priorities over transit, past liberals did the same for different reasons. I hated the Harper years but not much was done under Chretien and Martin in infrastructure as they prioritize the zero deficit.

The PC wants to build subways and "try" to be fiscal conservative... ok but we all know that social programs, environment, healthcare, public service and education will be butchered. I'm not voting PC because of that but the demonization on transit is getting out of hand. Harris isn't an incurable STD that future PC leaders can't shed... geez

 

[kEiThZ]

DRL has a pretty large consensus,

Yes and no. Does it have a large consesnsus among PC voters and do they number enough to flip any ridings? That's the question you should be asking.

Let's be clear. I am not arguing against the DRL here. I am arguing that the political calculus would not favour it.

The lack of Relief Line is hurting EVERYONE, including me at Don Mills & Sheppard where I pretty much almost gave up on the Yonge Line and Uber pool back and forth when I need to get downtown.

Sure. But are there enough of you who will flip a riding if they build the Relief Line.

We're talking politics here. Not transit. Ford has no platfrom. So basically, he's going to govern entirely by looking at what scores points for them. Somebody will have to make the case that spending $10 billion for DRL North will win them more ridings than say putting in $5 billion into an expanded Go and $5 billion for HSR to London.

 

[kEiThZ]

Things needs to go back to normal and we need to let go of Mike Harris because there was a time wher PC governments built transit.

The current PCPO is more Mike Harris than Bill Davis. We need to acknowledge that.

Were we looking at Premier Christine Elliott next week, I'd agree with you.

To me saying that PC=no transit is truly nonsense.

I hope we'll all be pleasantly surprised under Premier Ford. I just wouldn't expect it though.

 

[wolfewood]

I think an angle some people are forgetting here is that the Ford brothers' schtick in municipal politics was to whinge about how "downtown has enough subways, Scarborough deserves subways!" The wedge isn't going to be building a subway to take that away from "downtown leftists," it's going to be playing downtown and suburban interests against one another to do nothing. Fundamentally that's what the Ford's "subways, subways, subways" thing was about. Try to hide transit below ground and out of the way of their massive SUVs and, if that becomes too expensive/ludicrous, stamp your feet and obstruct daily business on council (or, if the polls are right tomorrow, the legislature) at every opportunity. Doug Ford isn't going to spend money on transit downtown. I would genuinely be stunned if the DRL moves forward in any appreciable way under a Premier Ford. Maybe if the EA is completed by the city and the Feds throw in enough money.

In any case, I don't know how so many people on this forum, of all places, have forgotten what the Fords were like on council. The brothers were never serious about building subways downtown while on council, why would that change tomorrow? Especially if Doug Ford seriously intends to keep his spending and tax cut promises.

 

[Cobra]

Yes and no. Does it have a large consesnsus among PC voters and do they number enough to flip any ridings? That's the question you should be asking.

Let's be clear. I am not arguing against the DRL here. I am arguing that the political calculus would not favour it.

It also helps convince fed up Liberals to switch knowing that the line will get built.

We're talking politics here. Not transit. Ford has no platfrom. So basically, he's going to govern entirely by looking at what scores points for them. Somebody will have to make the case that spending $10 billion for DRL North will win them more ridings than say putting in $5 billion into an expanded Go and $5 billion for HSR to London.

With the projected collapse of the Liberals, building Relief Line makes even more sense. That collapse is due to Liberals flipping to PC. Not building Relief Line just makes those voters go NDP or Liberals in 2022, making a reelection harder than it needs to be.

#1 objective is to get into power
#2 is to stay in power

Easier to stay in power if you don't alienate those soft liberals by going back on your word on building transit. Relief Line, Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke. What's the top issue in Toronto again? Transit. That's different than the Harris years

Ford might be a moron but his entourage aren't

The current PCPO is more Mike Harris than Bill Davis. We need to acknowledge that.

Were we looking at Premier Christine Elliott next week, I'd agree with you.

Except on transit. He pretty much copied what Patrick Brown had put down

 

[OneCity]

I think an angle some people are forgetting here is that the Ford brothers' schtick in municipal politics was to whinge about how "downtown has enough subways, Scarborough deserves subways!" The wedge isn't going to be building a subway to take that away from "downtown leftists," it's going to be playing downtown and suburban interests against one another to do nothing. Fundamentally that's what the Ford's "subways, subways, subways" thing was about. Try to hide transit below ground and out of the way of their massive SUVs and, if that becomes too expensive/ludicrous, stamp your feet and obstruct daily business on council (or, if the polls are right tomorrow, the legislature) at every opportunity. Doug Ford isn't going to spend money on transit downtown. I would genuinely be stunned if the DRL moves forward in any appreciable way under a Premier Ford. Maybe if the EA is completed by the city and the Feds throw in enough money.

In any case, I don't know how so many people on this forum, of all places, have forgotten what the Fords were like on council. The brothers were never serious about building subways downtown while on council, why would that change tomorrow? Especially if Doug Ford seriously intends to keep his spending and tax cut promises.

I get what you are trying to say, but what were you expecting after we had 8 years under Miller who took the City as far away from subways as possible with a poorly designed LRT plan and no attention to the DRL? Rob was under enough opposition on council (not the Province) to remove the transfer for the Scarborough RT and get Sheppard subway moving forward for his actual supporters who agreed the transit plan under Miller was completely off the mark. There was little room or time to get around to the DRL even before his downfall. Doug will not have a polarizing anti-inner suburban subway council to deal with if he has a majority. I see many logical and political reasons why he will move towards building the DRL. Both this line and the SSE with stops are big trophies to hold above the critics.

 

[kEiThZ]

It also helps convince fed up Liberals to switch knowing that the line will get built.

How many ridings in downtown Toronto do you think the PCs are going to win?

With the projected collapse of the Liberals,

Most of that in the 905 and outside the GTA, where people don't care about the DRL.

That collapse is due to Liberals flipping to PC. Not building Relief Line just makes those voters go NDP or Liberals in 2022, making a reelection harder than it needs to be.

#1 objective is to get into power
#2 is to stay in power

Easier to stay in power if you don't alienate those soft liberals by going back on your word on building transit. Relief Line, Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke.

This is all wishful thinking from people who just don't want to concede that the PCs might not actually care that much about transit and the DRL specifically.

Here's a simple test. Take a poll in Scarborough. Ask those people what matters more. DRL or SSE? Do the same poll in Mississauga. Ask them what matters more, improved GO or DRL. Do the same poll in Richmond Hill. Ask them if Yonge North matters more or less to them than the DRL. You'll quickly see a pattern emerge.

To the extent the tories care about transit they are going to try to lock in the ridings they win. That means locking in gains in the 905 and outer 416.

What's the top issue in Toronto again? Transit. That's different than the Harris years

And unlike the Harris years, transit is important in the 905 too. And they've got many more seats in play for the Tories than the 416.

Ford might be a moron but his entourage aren't

Most of his cabinet won't be from Toronto either.

Except on transit. He pretty much copied what Patrick Brown had put down

Are we really going to discuss his vague, uncosted platform? Brown had a plan to pay for his promises. Ford started his run by pledging to create a fiscal hole by scrapping the carbon tax. So where's the money going to come from from a multi-billion dollar subway line that mostly runs through ridings the tories will never have a shot in?

 

[salsa]

Last time, transit wasn't as big of an election issue as it is now. They are totally aware of the reality of 2018 so yes, I maintain that they are fully aware of backtracking on the Relief Line would be suicide for 2022

This guy literally ran a campaign against the DRL and launched attack ads against Olivia Chow because she supported it. He still won the election.

 

[Cobra]

How many ridings in downtown Toronto do you think the PCs are going to win?

Most of that in the 905 and outside the GTA, where people don't care about the DRL.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

Pick Toronto and the projected seat count is 15 PC and 10 NDP. They might not win downtown Toronto but they have made gains nonetheless. Going against those gains by backtracking on the DRL would annihilate those gains.

Also, Not building Relief Line virtually means no YNSE. I will share your skepticism on Relief Long but DRL short gets built. York Region cares about YNSE (to what degree is still unclear to me) and without Relief Line, they aren't getting it...who will they blame?

This is all wishful thinking from people who just don't want to concede that the PCs might not actually care that much about transit and the DRL specifically.

Like Miller & Giambrone? (suburban LRT or relef Line?) McGuinty? (Vaughan subways and Suburban RER?) On DRL, they aren't that much worse on the matter than the others

And unlike the Harris years, transit is important in the 905 too. And they've got many more seats in play for the Tories than the 416.

They could win 15 seats in the 416...surely that accounts for something when seeking a majority. That's why they are leaving in progress projects alone while pushing subways in all parts of the city. Winning another majority the next time around means you held on to the 416 seats and hopefully solidified the gains and make some. No one is arguing they are doing this out of the goodness of their hearts, but strategically, just building transit works too.

Are we really going to discuss his vague, uncosted platform? Brown had a plan to pay for his promises. Ford started his run by pledging to create a fiscal hole by scrapping the carbon tax. So where's the money going to come from from a multi-billion dollar subway line that mostly runs through ridings the tories will never have a shot in?

He's most likely butchering programs like healthcare, education, environment, public service and social programs. I won't be voting for PC because of the uncertainty.

 

[kEiThZ]

Pick Toronto and the projected seat count is 15 PC and 10 NDP. They might not win downtown Toronto but they have made gains nonetheless.

And the way to consolidate those gains is to give the voters service improvements they can point to. And that means stuff in their neighbourhood where possible.

Going against those gains by backtracking on the DRL would annihilate those gains.

No it won't. In the last 25 years, all three parties have been in power. None have built the DRL. And voting patterns in downtown Toronto have not changed substantially.

Your thesis is that the DRL matters enough to suburban 416 voters. Okay show me which ridings would flip in the outer 416, because of the DRL.

Also, Not building Relief Line virtually means no YNSE.

Like politicians care about things like overcrowding on the subways.

Like Miller & Giambrone? (suburban LRT or relef Line?) McGuinty? (Vaughan subways and Suburban RER?) On DRL, they aren't that much worse on the matter than the others

Indeed, they are just as opportunistic as those other politicians. Which is exactly why I'm pessimistic on the DRL. In this term anyway. I could see the PCs pushing the DRL in some future term. This term? No way. They have to spend the precious few dollars they have on securing their gains.

They could win 15 seats in the 416...

And none of them will be in the downtown core and most of those voters care more about subways to their front doors than the DRL.

 

[Hopkins123]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

Pick Toronto and the projected seat count is 15 PC and 10 NDP. They might not win downtown Toronto but they have made gains nonetheless. Going against those gains by backtracking on the DRL would annihilate those gains.

Also, Not building Relief Line virtually means no YNSE. I will share your skepticism on Relief Long but DRL short gets built. York Region cares about YNSE (to what degree is still unclear to me) and without Relief Line, they aren't getting it...who will they blame?


Like Miller & Giambrone? (suburban LRT or relef Line?) McGuinty? (Vaughan subways and Suburban RER?) On DRL, they aren't that much worse on the matter than the others


They could win 15 seats in the 416...surely that accounts for something when seeking a majority. That's why they are leaving in progress projects alone while pushing subways in all parts of the city. Winning another majority the next time around means you held on to the 416 seats and hopefully solidified the gains and make some. No one is arguing they are doing this out of the goodness of their hearts, but strategically, just building transit works too.


He's most likely butchering programs like healthcare, education, environment, public service and social programs. I won't be voting for PC because of the uncertainty.

Urbantoronto definitely isn't representative of the population at large. Most Ontarians actually want the PCs to govern, even in Toronto, as will be proven in less than 24 hours from now.

We've seen opposition to the current plans swept under the rug as if the need to consult with the public/constituents was an unneeded distraction. Eglinton Crosstown never should have been built as an LRT and definitely should not route at grade in the road median through Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough. Sheppard Subway should have never been left to rot, all these claims that it's underused is primarily because the City has done everything possible to sabotage its potential success. The Finch West bus has never even adopted an express route until the last 3 years and only along 6 kilometres of the whole length of the route; yet you're telling me a 2800 pphpd service deserves LRT?

There's countless other blunders I could make mention of that the status quo seems blissfully ignorant to, that makes the need for change all the more important. If the Liberals/NDP think that nothing's wrong they'll never correct their actions. This is Ontario's Day of Reckoning.

 

[kEiThZ]

The real question about transit, for me, is what happens to Metrolinx. And what will the relationship between Metrolinx and all the local transit agencies be going forward. This will be the first time that Metrolinx will be running under a different government.

There's also the matter of uploading the subways:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...take-over-torontos-subways-would-that-work-a/

That could change a lot of plans....

 

[MisterF]

Most Ontarians actually want the PCs to govern, even in Toronto, as will be proven in less than 24 hours from now.

36% of the population (or whatever the latest poll numbers are) isn't "most Ontarians". Most Ontarians don't want the PCs to govern.