syn
Senior Member
It seems like the arrogance and self-righteousness of the PC Party and their supporters is what has been their downfall for the past decade or so.
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2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises
- Thread starter innsertnamehere
- Start date
It seems like the arrogance and self-righteousness of the PC Party and their supporters is what has been their downfall for the past decade or so.
syn
Senior Member
I actually think his simple message will appeal to a lot of voters who aren't familiar with him. Let's not forget that same message got his brother elected in Toronto.
You're right in that this will be a much tougher election - but Trump won saying little of substance.
Fortunately Ontario doesn't skew towards the right, so he doesn't have a huge built-in advantage in that regard.
Wynne is also an excellent debater - he could actually make her look good by comparison, and I'm sure the Liberals will be getting aggressive with the ads, etc. soon.
Neutrino
Senior Member
wolfewood
Active Member
I suspect both sides are right, insofar as Ford is dangerous to underestimate but there's also a very good chance the PCs have shot themselves in the foot fatally again. Pre-Trump I think this would've been a cinch for Ford. With the daily bad press surrounding Trump's incompetence and his constant scandals I think more people are going to think hard about voting Ford. We also have the Toronto example where many people will gladly remind other Ontarians that the Fords were idiots when in power here. Of course, New York City played a similar role with Trump and that didn't help but, again, Trump has had a clear depressing effect on conservative movements as he has become their poster boy, whether they like it or not.
syn
Senior Member
Ford has firmly aligned himself with Trump - I can't imagine that will help with anyone but his base.
kEiThZ
Superstar
The issue always is that party supporting a minority, but not in power, always ends up paying for it at election time. The NDP props up the Liberals and the Liberals get to take credit for a while lot of NDP ideas, leading to a majority after.
The pollsters were not wrong. Clinton won the popular vote by millions. What they got slightly wrong was the Electoral College predictions. 80 000 voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania decided the 2016 Presidential election. And pollsters like Nate Silver were pointing out weeks before that state level polls had much less certainty than required.
There's no such analogy per se, in Ontario. Our polling is still fairly accurate. Not to say we couldn't end up in some absurd situation where some party distributes their votes more efficiently.
Nor should he. I'm not saying he's right to do so. And I detest what politics has become.
But that's how the game is played these days. The Liberals have mastered deflection and turning around a campaign promise against their opponents. He'd be a fool to play that game.
I'd bet money he'll avoid the debates. Why bother when you know you'll get crushed? Just act aloof and say there's nothing to discuss with Wynne.
kEiThZ
Superstar
You'd be surprised how few people know that or even care, beyond his base.
Again, put yourself in the shoes of the average suburbanite. They go to work, pay their taxes, pay their bills and raise their kids. They only care about politics for a week or two before an election. They have a quick gander at the news and see what the main talking points are and vote accordingly.
In the context of soundbites, Liberals complaining Ford liking Trump will come off as absurd deflection, in my opinion. The Liberals would be so much better off using 30 second sound bites to attack the source of the Ford power: Rob Ford. Attack RoFo's record as mayor and then build on that by pointing out that DoFo was even worse as a councillor.
wolfewood
Active Member
I don't disagree. All I'm saying is assuming this is a cinch will only leave those of us who oppose Ford disappointed in June. All Ford needs is to figure out how to promise better or for Wynne and/or Horwath to slip up once. After Rob Ford and Donald Trump, I'm not prepared to underestimate how popular the folksy bullshit is.
nfitz
Superstar
To point out that both parties have viable options where they don't support Drug Ford and survive.
Obviously either party backing the current PC party isn't happening.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
IMO, an alliance between either with the PCs isn’t out of the question, even with Ford. Politicians want power, and in the NDP’s case if this presents their only chance of being at the table and gives them an opportunity to stop Wynne, The NDP will take it.
nfitz
Superstar
In general, I'd think an NDP deal with the PC would be unlikely under the best of circumstances.
And I really can't see the NDP ever living down making a deal with the PCs under such a corrupt bigoted individual.
If the NDP were to come to the table, I'd think it would come with a list of conditions, including a full coalition, and appointing someone like Christine Elliot as premier.
Currently, I'd think an NDP minority government propped up by the Tories is more likely. If the Liberals are anywhere close, even if in second place, they'll simply try and continuing governing.
syn
Senior Member
I agree with both of you - he's not to be underestimated.
To be clear, it's not that he likes Trump, it's that he supports him, his policies and his behaviour. People may not be aware of that now, but I'm sure it will lead to some interesting comments from him and his party.
No one thought the Liberals would win the last election - I would never underestimate Ford, but I simply can't deny the possibility of him doing/saying some damaging things during the campaign.
christiesplits
Senior Member
Agreed, this is the least likely of any minority scenario. Other than some similarities on trade protectionism, there is absolutely no ideological agreement between the PCs and NDP.
steveintoronto
Superstar
Any Party that did a deal with Ford would be signing their own death warrant. The most likely coalition would be a Lib-NDP one, either to govern, or as Official Opposition Coalition.
That latter claim might sound abstract, but it's on the books:
If by some God forsaken outcome, Ford gains a majority, it will be very slim, and an Official Opposition Coalition could easily topple him with just a few members of his own party (no shortage of them with a grudge, Ford didn't have even one backer in the Con Caucus) abstaining, let alone voting against him in a vote of confidence.
The knives are out for Ford, they're just not glinting in the light yet. The Cons want their party back.
That latter claim might sound abstract, but it's on the books:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_Opposition_(Canada)
If by some God forsaken outcome, Ford gains a majority, it will be very slim, and an Official Opposition Coalition could easily topple him with just a few members of his own party (no shortage of them with a grudge, Ford didn't have even one backer in the Con Caucus) abstaining, let alone voting against him in a vote of confidence.
The knives are out for Ford, they're just not glinting in the light yet. The Cons want their party back.
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Neutrino
Senior Member
Ah, there it is. Silly me to think your ways had changed.