2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[crs1026]

Many Ontarians will pay a steep price if Doug Ford keeps his budget promises

This article goes over the implausibly of Ford’s budget promises. This does not bode well for transit.

It seems both the Liberals and NDP are determined to run on platforms promising increased spending. Pretty easy for Ford to differentiate by not doing that. And I predict more voters will be turned off by the Liberal-NDP largesse than approve of it. They may be handing Ford the election.

- Paul

 

[BurlOak]

It seems both the Liberals and NDP are determined to run on platforms promising increased spending. Pretty easy for Ford to differentiate by not doing that. And I predict more voters will be turned off by the Liberal-NDP largesse than approve of it. They may be handing Ford the election.

- Paul

Part of this is that voters realized that the additional spending that Trudeau has started has not lead to any real benefits. We will have $75B of debt thanks to Trudeau, yet we are still under performing the US economy. People have finally realized that they don't want to continue this in Ontario?

 

[Streety McCarface]

Oh I see what you're saying. I still think that hypothetical line would get more than 50K. It would go through one of the most densely populated parts of the city with huge pent up demand for transit and frequent high ridership surface lines feeding it. Pretty much any subway line of that length through downtown would get more riders than the Sheppard line.

Based on the numbers in the Yonge Relief Network Study, the daily ridership of even the first phase of the Relief Line would be in the hundreds of thousands. That's several times higher than Line 4 for a similar length.

DRL east serves a different purpose though. It's there to mainly take off existing loads from an already crowded system with built up ridership. This is completely different from Sheppard which, in its current form, is a 5km stub from the system. It'd be better suited as a spur of the Yonge line.

 

[syn]

The video was taken off peak, at around 2:30-3 (I don't remember exactly what time I was there, I had to finish the subway challenge and it wasn't really on my mind). Compare it to a peak time, say, 4:30-6. It would most likely be even more full. 2-3 car LRV trains would be inadequate with that level of traffic. (450 crush load vs about 600-700 people on just one train). Sure, you could run trains twice as frequently as the Sheppard line currently runs trains, but that would require twice the amount of rolling stock, double the number of drivers, double the number of mechanics, and double the wear on tracks, therefore, more track maintenance. That seems illogical since it might cost the same but most certainly more to run light rail over a subway on the corridor. If you wanted to save money on traction power costs, then during the severe off-peak times, you run 2 car t1s in the late evenings and weekend middays. I must ask why other lines don't use this system: run TRs on all lines during peak times, and shortened T1s during off-peak times. Would it require too many spares? The trains we currently use are huge and even the Yonge line doesn't require that type of capacity during off-peak times.

Dude, your video is irrelevant.

It's an anecdote. Just like this image of a busy afternoon...at least busy everywhere else. Had to stand on the Bloor and Yonge Lines, but the Sheppard Line offered plenty of space:

I don't have any recent numbers, but between 2011 and 2015 Sheppard Line ridership declined every single year.

Recently announced transit funds should be directed at priority projects that will offer the greatest value for the most riders. The DRL fits the bill. Suburban vanity projects do not.

 

[syn]

It seems both the Liberals and NDP are determined to run on platforms promising increased spending. Pretty easy for Ford to differentiate by not doing that. And I predict more voters will be turned off by the Liberal-NDP largesse than approve of it. They may be handing Ford the election.

- Paul

You could definitely be right on that.

A lot will depend on what Ford and his allies have to say about other issues too. He's already declared himself a Trump supporter, and Granic Allen ranting about the sex ed curriculum or homosexuals could certainly scare a lot of people off.

I can't help but feel there's still significant room for movement.

 

[hw621]

It seems both the Liberals and NDP are determined to run on platforms promising increased spending. Pretty easy for Ford to differentiate by not doing that. And I predict more voters will be turned off by the Liberal-NDP largesse than approve of it. They may be handing Ford the election.

- Paul

A lot of spending can be deferred but transit is not one of them. If we kick the can down the road it will become so expensive that future generations can never be able to build it.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Dude, your video is irrelevant.

It's an anecdote. Just like this image of a busy afternoon...at least busy everywhere else. Had to stand on the Bloor and Yonge Lines, but the Sheppard Line offered plenty of space:

I don't have any recent numbers, but between 2011 and 2015 Sheppard Line ridership declined every single year.

Recently announced transit funds should be directed at priority projects that will offer the greatest value for the most riders. The DRL fits the bill. Suburban vanity projects do not.

So...you show a photo where you're in the westernmost car...the one where no one sits because it's a fair walk at Sheppard yonge station. Also, we don't know when that photo was taken. If it was midday, that would make sense, but we also don't know which direction that train was going. If it was going eastbound in the morning, that can explain the seemingly low ridership. The video I shared was not an outlier. It was taken on a Wednesday afternoon -- the day of lowest weekday ridership and most of the trains were like the one in the video heading towards don mills. Most of the seats were taken on westbound trains as well. There were no Sheppard line delays to account for seemingly high ridership, and none on the Yonge line either. I could not stay to analyze the ridership, but I guarantee it would be better as the day went on since it was a good hour before the afternoon rush started.

Your statement that ridership has declined on the sheppard line over the past 5 years simply has absolutely no merit whatsoever. Here are the statistics.

As you can see, the ridership for every single line with the exception of Line 1 has decreased over this period. Stating one line's ridership is decreasing while the rest of the system's ridership is decreasing is bad statistics and has no merit in any rational argument. Also, these full-line ridership counts are highly dependent on a few things: when the survey is conducted, how many surveyors there are, miscounts, equipment errors, low ridership days, etc. There are too many variables to be able to take these figures with full legitimacy or to spot any sort of trend within them. The surveying occurs in this manner:
1. Days are picked to measure platform traffic at each of the stations: Sheppard Yonge (Sheppard), Bayview, Bessarion, Leslie, Don Mills. Each platform traffic count occurs on a different weekday. Let's say Sheppard Yonge is surveyed during a febuary winter wednesday, Bayview during a may monday, Bessarion on a November Friday, Leslie on a september thursday, and don mills on a December tuesday. Ridership levels vary month by month depending on festivals, subway closures, service levels, and of course, need to go downtown. This example is a little exaggerated, but it is clear that ridership at sheppard yonge and don mills would be grossly understated (when compared to their normal usages), and Bayview Bessarion and Leslie are overstated. This is a bias and it severely affects station counts.
2. When they decide to count individuals, they send people to each subway platform's entrance and exit, and they count the number of people entering the station and exiting the station through turnstiles and bus terminals if I remember correctly. It is very possible for individuals to not be counted or accidentally counted twice during these usage assessments. It is also possible that the counters may take breaks for restrooms, lunches, etc for whatever reason and lose count of individuals.

With all these biases, you can under no circumstances even claim that there is a downward trend in ridership, especially since average ridership has increased by about 5K PPD since 2008. It has only leveled off, but will likely grow due to growing developments at Bessarion, Leslie and Don Mills stations. Only time will tell.

 

[syn]

So...you show a photo where you're in the westernmost car...the one where no one sits because it's a fair walk at Sheppard yonge station. Also, we don't know when that photo was taken. If it was midday, that would make sense, but we also don't know which direction that train was going. If it was going eastbound in the morning, that can explain the seemingly low ridership. The video I shared was not an outlier. It was taken on a Wednesday afternoon -- the day of lowest weekday ridership and most of the trains were like the one in the video heading towards don mills. Most of the seats were taken on westbound trains as well. There were no Sheppard line delays to account for seemingly high ridership, and none on the Yonge line either. I could not stay to analyze the ridership, but I guarantee it would be better as the day went on since it was a good hour before the afternoon rush started.

Your statement that ridership has declined on the sheppard line over the past 5 years simply has absolutely no merit whatsoever. Here are the statistics.

View attachment 137911

As you can see, the ridership for every single line with the exception of Line 1 has decreased over this period. Stating one line's ridership is decreasing while the rest of the system's ridership is decreasing is bad statistics and has no merit in any rational argument. Also, these full-line ridership counts are highly dependent on a few things: when the survey is conducted, how many surveyors there are, miscounts, equipment errors, low ridership days, etc. There are too many variables to be able to take these figures with full legitimacy or to spot any sort of trend within them. The surveying occurs in this manner:
1. Days are picked to measure platform traffic at each of the stations: Sheppard Yonge (Sheppard), Bayview, Bessarion, Leslie, Don Mills. Each platform traffic count occurs on a different weekday. Let's say Sheppard Yonge is surveyed during a febuary winter wednesday, Bayview during a may monday, Bessarion on a November Friday, Leslie on a september thursday, and don mills on a December tuesday. Ridership levels vary month by month depending on festivals, subway closures, service levels, and of course, need to go downtown. This example is a little exaggerated, but it is clear that ridership at sheppard yonge and don mills would be grossly understated (when compared to their normal usages), and Bayview Bessarion and Leslie are overstated. This is a bias and it severely affects station counts.
2. When they decide to count individuals, they send people to each subway platform's entrance and exit, and they count the number of people entering the station and exiting the station through turnstiles and bus terminals if I remember correctly. It is very possible for individuals to not be counted or accidentally counted twice during these usage assessments. It is also possible that the counters may take breaks for restrooms, lunches, etc for whatever reason and lose count of individuals.

Yes, I was wrong about 2015...but the 2015 total is lower than it was in 2010-2011.

And the train was going eastbound from Sheppard in the afternoon. The Bloor Line and Yonge Lines were standing room only.

With all these biases, you can under no circumstances even claim that there is a downward trend in ridership, especially since average ridership has increased by about 5K PPD since 2008. It has only leveled off, but will likely grow due to growing developments at Bessarion, Leslie and Don Mills stations. Only time will tell.

This is exactly why the Sheppard Line was a colossal mistake. It opened nearly a generation ago and we're still waiting for ridership to reach an even remotely acceptable level, while the system is struggling in areas of actual need.

Time has been quite telling.

 

[Hopkins123]

Yes, I was wrong about 2015...but the 2015 total is lower than it was in 2010-2011.

And the train was going eastbound from Sheppard in the afternoon. The Bloor Line and Yonge Lines were standing room only.

This is exactly why the Sheppard Line was a colossal mistake. It opened nearly a generation ago and we're still waiting for ridership to reach an even remotely acceptable level, while the system is struggling in areas of actual need.

Time has been quite telling.

You're splitting hairs. A fluctuation of a couple thousand riders annually isn't evidence that the Sheppard Line is underused. Several subway lines in Chicago and NYC would kill to have ~50,000 daily alightings. It's also to be noted that the Sheppard Line is incredibly short. Were it a crosstown line it could easily see hundreds of thousands of riders using it per day.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Part of this is that voters realized that the additional spending that Trudeau has started has not lead to any real benefits. We will have $75B of debt thanks to Trudeau, yet we are still under performing the US economy. People have finally realized that they don't want to continue this in Ontario?

Do you anticipate that the transit funding announced last week wont result in any real benefit?

 

[Streety McCarface]

Yes, I was wrong about 2015...but the 2015 total is lower than it was in 2010-2011.

And the train was going eastbound from Sheppard in the afternoon. The Bloor Line and Yonge Lines were standing room only.

This is exactly why the Sheppard Line was a colossal mistake. It opened nearly a generation ago and we're still waiting for ridership to reach an even remotely acceptable level, while the system is struggling in areas of actual need.

Time has been quite telling.

Afternoon could mean 12 or it could be 5:30 or 7. It could also be a weekday or a weekend, and there's no way of knowing where along the subway line the photo was taken. Anything after Bayview diminishes ridership a fair bit. It's really hard to justify ridership for just one day when

Of course the Yonge and Bloor subways were full, they serve corridors 4* as long as Sheppard's. I'd say 50K for a 5 km stub is fair. It's better than many European, almost all US and some Asian systems. No one here believes that relief shouldn't come to those corridors. I'd even argue the Bloor subway isn't getting enough for relief. We're hear arguing merits of any extension. We just recieved 9 billion dollars from upper governments, and with 11.7 billion dollars available for the Relief line south, Waterfront Transit, the Scarborough subway, and crosstown east, we can now start looking at building even more for the future. Yonge north isn't a priority of toronto, and neither is Bloor West (Metrolinx should study that to take the place of milton corridor improvements). What's left? Relief line Long and U can't be started until the DRL and Scarborough subway are complete, which will likely take a good 10 years. After that, what's next? What if the relief line fails? What else will be built with relief line Long? What makes fiscal and political sense for the government to fund?

 

[syn]

You're splitting hairs. A fluctuation of a couple thousand riders annually isn't evidence that the Sheppard Line is underused. Several subway lines in Chicago and NYC would kill to have ~50,000 daily alightings. It's also to be noted that the Sheppard Line is incredibly short. Were it a crosstown line it could easily see hundreds of thousands of riders using it per day.

You're right. But that's not really the point.

The point is that the Sheppard Line has always been underused.

The ridership does not justify a subway, and it won't for generations. It barely eclipses the Spadina Streetcar.

 

[syn]

Afternoon could mean 12 or it could be 5:30 or 7. It could also be a weekday or a weekend, and there's no way of knowing where along the subway line the photo was taken. Anything after Bayview diminishes ridership a fair bit. It's really hard to justify ridership for just one day when

Of course the Yonge and Bloor subways were full, they serve corridors 4* as long as Sheppard's. I'd say 50K for a 5 km stub is fair. It's better than many European, almost all US and some Asian systems. No one here believes that relief shouldn't come to those corridors. I'd even argue the Bloor subway isn't getting enough for relief. We're hear arguing merits of any extension. We just recieved 9 billion dollars from upper governments, and with 11.7 billion dollars available for the Relief line south, Waterfront Transit, the Scarborough subway, and crosstown east, we can now start looking at building even more for the future. Yonge north isn't a priority of toronto, and neither is Bloor West (Metrolinx should study that to take the place of milton corridor improvements). What's left? Relief line Long and U can't be started until the DRL and Scarborough subway are complete, which will likely take a good 10 years. After that, what's next? What if the relief line fails? What else will be built with relief line Long? What makes fiscal and political sense for the government to fund?

Right.

So we agree that anecdotes don't mean anything.

 

[Irishmonk]

If you put that empty subway underneath King St it'll be packed--and not just during rush hour. And ridership will likely increase every year with so many developments coming on stream. As a side note I can't understand why King W is not part of the DRL proposal

 

[Hopkins123]

You're right. But that's not really the point.

The point is that the Sheppard Line has always been underused.

The ridership does not justify a subway, and it won't for generations. It barely eclipses the Spadina Streetcar.

Rubbish! At the time of the Sheppard Subway's construction it was replacing the busiest surface route in the city which had an average daily ridership of 38,000. At 50,000 alightings, the subway increased ridership in the corridor by over 20%.

It is a success! The transformative change in density along the corridor never would have occurred without the subway this past decade and a half. And more's to come.

Focusing myopically on today's conditions and not planning ahead is precisely what got us in this mess to begin with. Waiting till a million people reside within 2 kilometres of the Sheppard corridor to expand the pre-existing metro is not the way to go about building a city.