2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[denfromoakvillemilton]

No, but I think the province should take paratransit (Wheel-Trans) away from the city and have the TTC focus solely on conventional transit. IMO one of the reasons why Brampton Transit and Miway are so successful (relatively) is because they don't have to worry about paratransit - it's handled by Peel Region.

I think it should be the whole thing. The standard of service will never be up to par as long as the TTC is funded solely at the city level.

We really need to see some numbers crunched to understand the puts and takes. If the Province were to relieve the City of the capital cost of subways, but declined to fund LRT or streetcar or bus lane improvements, is that a net gain for the city or a loss? And what about future projects after the DRL and North Yonge - it sets up a scenario where the city clamours for further lines which the Province may consider extravagant. And what if the Province wades in on value for money eg cut and cover instead of deep bore for a line? Does the City have a veto? Must the City take the hit on disruption? Part of me thinks that bypassing Toronto Council is a good thing, but part of me thinks they need to keep skin in the game lest their antics get even sillier.

I can understand why they would posture around a shorter planning and execution cycle. It's an easy promise to make and not that easy for anyone to prove success or failure. Electrification is a good example - the TPAP went smoothly and kept to schedule, it is ML's vaccilations and the Province's should we/shouldnt we deliberation (it was first promised around 2010, after all) that is dragging the thing out. Perhaps a better stage gate process where progress is assessed more often and the milestones more transparent would keep things going in a straighter line.

True story: in 1960-61, the construction industry in Toronto was in disarray due to unscrupulous contractors abusing immigrant labour, which led to union unrest with serious levels of violence, intimidation, and disruption to the contruction boom of the day. The City and Province basically tut-tutted their way along but did nothing tangible to intervene .....until.... the disruptions began to happen on the University Subway construction. At that point, the Province found the conviction to fix things. The history lesson that the Wynne Liberals forgot was that delays to infrastructure, especially transit, is a voter issue. Brown's policy people seem to have remebered this and know which noise to make, even if the solution is a bit simplistic.

- Paul

I think it's a recognition of the fact it should not take 5 years to build LRT. It didn't in Vancouver.

 

[11th]

I'll breathe a sigh of relief with genuine, certified, actual, real, bona-fide shovels hitting ground on Hamilton LRT in 2019.

While I am not a card-carrying PC, I am not feeling the fears of a Harris-era slaughter.

That said, PC just essentially suggested a defacto upload of the subway to Metrolinx (Eglinton Crosstown style). It looks like Metrolinx, quacks like Metrolinx, and is Metrolinx -- even though they're not saying "Metrolinx". I wonder what they'll do to the Metrolinx name/structure though, but whatever regional brand they slap on that entity, it'll essentially be the same entity operating the subway, SmartTrack, UPX and GO if this happens. I wonder how that will work though. Going to be messy, given TTC complexity, and Toronto's difficulty financing streetcar/bus operations without the revenues of the subway.

According to the document, the province's to pay for construction and maintenance of subways, and TTC gets to keep the revenue.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If I'm understanding this platform correctly, the PCs are promising to dedicated $5 Billion to projects, including the DRL, YNSE and Sheppard East subway, with the stipulation that the feds provide at least 50% funding. However, 100% the SSE is also supposed to be funded from this $5 Billion. So that essentially means that there'd be just $1.5 Billion in provincial funding allocated to the DRL, YNSE and Sheppard East, meaning that only the SSE would be built.

Am I understanding this correctly?

 

[Northern Light]

If I'm understanding this platform correctly, the PCs are promising to dedicated $5 Billion to projects, including the DRL, YNSE and Sheppard East subway, with the stipulation that the feds provide at least 50% funding. However, 100% the SSE is also supposed to be funded from this $5 Billion. So that essentially means that there'd be just $1.5 Billion in provincial funding allocated to the DRL, YNSE and Sheppard East, meaning that only the SSE would be built.

Am I understanding this correctly?

I don't believe so.

Keep in mind the province is already committed to a portion of SSE costs.

Its my understanding this promise is to cover the portion of costs currently assumed to be covered by the City.

The province previously committed roughly 1.5B if memory serves.

So the City' portion, based on current cost estimates is in the range of 1.9B

That would be subtracted from the 5B.

Leaving 3.1B

The expectation that the platform lays out is that there will be Federal funding for the Relief Line and other projects at a 50% match.

If this is the case, that would make 6.2B the remaining sum available.

Still likely a bit short, but rather larger than the number you had above.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I don't believe so.

Keep in mind the province is already committed to a portion of SSE costs.

Its my understanding this promise is to cover the portion of costs currently assumed to be covered by the City.

The province previously committed roughly 1.5B if memory serves.

So the City' portion, based on current cost estimates is in the range of 1.9B

That would be subtracted from the 5B.

Leaving 3.1B

The expectation that the platform lays out is that there will be Federal funding for the Relief Line and other projects at a 50% match.

If this is the case, that would make 6.2B the remaining sum available.

Still likely a bit short, but rather larger than the number you had above.

It's a bit ambiguous, in my opinion. Yours is the more optimistic situation. But even then, $6.2 Billion is not enough to fully fund the DRL, let alone the YNSE and the Sheppard Subway extension. So at least two of those three projects will be cancelled, unless the federal government is exceptionally generous.

 

[innsertnamehere]

If I'm understanding this platform correctly, the PCs are promising to dedicated $5 Billion to projects, including the DRL, YNSE and Sheppard East subway, with the stipulation that the feds provide at least 50% funding. However, 100% the SSE is also supposed to be funded from this $5 Billion. So that essentially means that there'd be just $1.5 Billion in provincial funding allocated to the DRL, YNSE and Sheppard East, meaning that only the SSE would be built.

Am I understanding this correctly?

It's not clear whether the billion for SSE is supposed to come from the $5 billion pot. The way the document is formatted, I would say that it isn't. The document is clear that the $5 billion is net new spending above existing commitments however, so that means that at worst, it's actually $4 billion in "new" subway spending above the SSE.

My interpration is that there is $10 billion in new subway money provided a federal matching, which would get you the DRL and Yonge North.

Going into these levels of interpretation to try and find a way for the party to not be dedicating the money properly is silly, the document clearly states a $5 billion contribution to new subway lines, the party clearly intends to invest and fund some new lines. It's going to look poorly on them if they spend all this time talking new subway lines and then they end up saying "well, technically we are spending all our money on an existing subway line that is already funded.. so no new funding for you!" This isn't some nefarious plot to rob Toronto of new subway lines.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Regg Cohn has a new column out right now discussing this. To echo mdrejhon, he discusses how Brown is distancing himself from the Harris era slash and burn politics that has plagued the party for 20 years.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/sta...and-what-has-he-done-with-the-tory-party.html

I've long said that Brown isn't stupid. I can tell he knows what he is doing. And he knows that Harris/Hudak style politics won't help.

 

[TOareaFan]

If the province owned the subway it would make fare integration a whole lot easier.

If you enter the system by dome bus service (GO, TTC, Miway, BT/Zum,York/Viva,Durham, whatever) a tap onto the subway is free.....and all the fare revenue goes to the originating agency.....a trip that starts with the subway, the province gets the revenue and any last mile bus connection/extension is free.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

It's not clear whether the billion for SSE is supposed to come from the $5 billion pot. The way the document is formatted, I would say that it isn't. The document is clear that the $5 billion is net new spending above existing commitments however, so that means that at worst, it's actually $4 billion in "new" subway spending above the SSE.

My interpration is that there is $10 billion in new subway money provided a federal matching, which would get you the DRL and Yonge North.

Going into these levels of interpretation to try and find a way for the party to not be dedicating the money properly is silly, the document clearly states a $5 billion contribution to new subway lines, the party clearly intends to invest and fund some new lines. It's going to look poorly on them if they spend all this time talking new subway lines and then they end up saying "well, technically we are spending all our money on an existing subway line that is already funded.. so no new funding for you!" This isn't some nefarious plot to rob Toronto of new subway lines.

$5 Billion is provincial funding, with the federal government matching. That’s $10 Billion in new subway funding. The DRL is $6.5 Billion. The YNSE is $5.5 Billion. Sheppard East is unknown, but almost certainly more than $5.5 Billion (its longer than YNSE.). Therefore, that $10 Billion in new subway funding will only get you one of those three projects.

DRL = $6.5 Billion
YNSE = $5.5 Billion
Sheppard = More than $5.5 Billion
DRL + YNSE = $12 Billion
DRL + Sheppard = More than $12 Billion
YNSE + Sheppard = More than $11 Billion
DRL + YNSE + Sheppard = More than $17.5 Billion

The only way two of these projects get built is with a significant contribution from Toronto and York Region, and that assumes that these projects dont increase in cost at all. And getting all three built is just implausible.

Of course, this assumes no reduction in the scope of these projects

 

[jje1000]

According to the document, the province's to pay for construction and maintenance of subways, and TTC gets to keep the revenue.

Here:

Page 53 of the platform pledges to apply the Eglinton Crosstown operations and maintenance model to the rest of the TTC subway:

https://twitter.com/CoreyMichaels/status/934512504037937153

Still a bit suspect as it leaves Toronto without complete control, but it's still better than nothing.

Ultimately, this will probably depend on how willing the city is in giving up its subway system. I doubt it's a central part of the platform (PCs are likely aiming for a taxation/healthcare/hydro based platform)- transit is largely an attempt at getting into the 416 and some of the 905 region.

 

[innsertnamehere]

YSNE is up to $5.5? I remember it being only $4 a few years ago..

I suspect Sheppard would be cheaper per km than YSNE since YSNE has that extremely expensive underground train yard that they want to build north of the Highway 7 station.

Again, I suspect these are rought numbers. It's a platform, not a hard document. Its not like they are legally bound to $5 billion in spending only, It can go up and down a bit. The idea is that they want to spend a good chunk of change on subways.

 

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[TheTigerMaster]

YSNE is up to $5.5? I remember it being only $4 a few years ago..

It's $5.6 Billion now:

The Yonge extension would push Line 1 about 7.4 km north from Finch station to the Richmond Hill Centre, and early estimates indicate it would cost about $5.6 billion.
​

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...ion-unless-province-pays-for-relief-line.html

I suspect Sheppard would be cheaper per km than YSNE since YSNE has that extremely expensive underground train yard that they want to build north of the Highway 7 station.

Yes, that is true. Although given Sheppard East would be longer, I'd expect it to cost around the same.

Again, I suspect these are rought numbers. It's a platform, not a hard document. Its not like they are legally bound to $5 billion in spending only, It can go up and down a bit. The idea is that they want to spend a good chunk of change on subways.

I get what the idea is. I just believe its misleading and disingenuous to suggest to voters that they want to build all these subway projects, when the publicly available cost estimates (a 15 second Google query away) shows that the funding they're proposing to commit wont get them anywhere close to delivering on those projects.

Unfortunately, the voters will only hear that they're getting the Sheppard, YNSE and DRL subways, not understanding that their proposal makes delivering on them virtually impossible.

 

[rbt]

Keep in mind the province is already committed to a portion of SSE costs.

It's pretty common for a new government to (accounting wise) backout all previous commitments to create an available funding pool, and pledge those funds as part of their promises.

Good campaigning requires promising the largest number possible and you do that by re-promising on old commitments (whether you made them or someone else). Distracted mushy-middle voters will go for the largest promises with the lowest tax increase (what they perceive as highest value).

I would be very surprised if that $5B was entirely new money. If it is, the PCs need to make a bit of noise about that.

 

[innsertnamehere]

^the document makes it pretty clear its net new money.