2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[syn]

What consequences? A good chunk of their MPPs would be able to sell the SSE. And with Eglinton Crosstown and Finch West coming on line, they'll be covered nicely. They don't need much more investment to protect their seats. Look at the electoral map. Their next move after the SSE is either Sheppard or Yonge North. SSE is a must though. It's tied to Ford's image and covers most of their Scarborough MPPs.

I was responding to the idea that it would be funded even if it meant all other transit projects in Toronto were put on the backburner (not a terribly far fetched idea).

Will those seats be protected if his spending results in healthcare cuts, or the removal of other services that people value?

If Ford wants to open the vault and spend on transit everywhere, great. The money will have to come from somewhere given all his other commitments and cuts promised. These aren't being built in a vacuum.

 

[kEiThZ]

That will drive Toronto mayor, council and taxpayers crazy, if they are still paying for the "SmartTrack" stations...

I don't think Ford and his cabinet care what Tory and City Council thinks. The fireworks will start when they decide to expropriate the subway network to Metrolinx.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I actually think Eglinton end-to-end could just happen with this government. Ford's hood on one end, Scarborough on the other. Which is why I said he'll finish Eglinton. For me that means more than just ECLRT.

All that said, I'd caution about "point of no return". Ford's own dad helped cancel the Eglinton subway the last time around. You have to have substantial construction before you hit PNR. Government's cancel contracts from the last government all the time. Chretien paid hundreds of millions to cancel the EH-101 contract. Ottawa paid tens of millions to cancel the last LRT contract. Toronto paid millions to cancel the SLRT. Eglinton West is less further along than all of those.



Which is why I said he'll improve GO. You don't need RER to deliver better GO service. People on this forum forget that.





What consequences? A good chunk of their MPPs would be able to sell the SSE. And with Eglinton Crosstown and Finch West coming on line, they'll be covered nicely. They don't need much more investment to protect their seats. Look at the electoral map. Their next move after the SSE is either Sheppard or Yonge North. SSE is a must though. It's tied to Ford's image and covers most of their Scarborough MPPs.



DMUs are a thing. You don't need electrification for Smart Track. Though, I've always maintained and continue to do so that Smart Track is going to get rolled into GO. And once Metrolinx takes over the Toronto subway network, this will become all the more obvious.

I agree all in all.

Oh, I thought the last time we check diesel just cant accelerate and decelerate fast enough for the SmartTrack stop spacing...

A DEMU (Diesel generator, electric motor) can do all the tricks of an EMU at the cost of lugging around many tons of extra weight; if spec'd/manufactured to do so.

There's options here. Change stop spacing. Skip stops. DEMUs. Hydrail. Battery-Electric trains. There's more than one way to skin the proverbial cat.

Smart Track is going to get sorted out with the RER, GO, TTC, Metrolinx reshuffling that is sure to come shortly.

I think if we get 1/2 hour all day two service on all lines other then Richmond Hill, it's a win. Electrification does not have to stop.

If Ford can find a way of fixing Eglinton, it would be a win.

1. First off, it would be fully grade-separated - what Ford and his supporters want.
2. It basically goes through a number of PC or near PC ridings.
3. Then it would highlight how bad the Liberal plan was and the entire Eglinton line would be viewed as a PC project.
4. Then it would also have relatively quick completion time.

The only downside is that since it's currently under construction, the cost to do this now may be excessive.

I agree, but I think it's far too gone. I feel in the future (10 years post completion), people will complain and it will get grad seperated at three times the cost.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I see almost the opposite. Rely on the federal Liberal election promise to fund 1/3 of all projects and come forward with a number of projects. The federal Liberals would then say that there was only a finite financial commitment, and only 1 or 2 projects can be funded. That will actually spite Trudeau.

Federal spending capacity is far higher than provincial - Trudeau could commit to it all and have it blow up in the province's face. Not exactly the wisest of moves.

I don't think Ford and his cabinet care what Tory and City Council thinks. The fireworks will start when they decide to expropriate the subway network to Metrolinx.

They could - and they will be owning the blowbacks.

AoD

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Those enabling works are already largely either tendered, out for RFP, or are substantially into design. They should be relatively easy to accomplish, or at least be mostly through, in one term.

To me, those enabling works are more important than electrification. If the electrification can gets kicked down the road another 4 years, that's not the end of the world. Just get the track and bridge work done so that all that's needed for RER is some substations, catenary, and procure new vehicles. You can still get service increases in the meantime.



Eglinton East was on the chopping block anyway, because it's been bundled with the SSE. And there's no way that thing is staying on budget.

Doug needs to come out and say we have to elevate the train in order to add Lawrence East. I think EE will get done but there will be a struggle.

Based on the past 10+ years - it appears that only one project goes at a time. As long as the PC's can do better than that, they can check the box as an accomplishment.

I would expect Scarborough to go first. And they put a little thought into reducing cost and adding the 2 missing stations (or essentially adding the stations for no cost). That way they can add their brand onto it.
Eglinton West design would proceed as grade-separated, with start of construction near the end of first term.
DRL will maybe be sent back to the drawing board for some value engineering. Sheppard design will be dusted off and re-iterated.

Sheppard and DRL will then be carried to a point where they would be campaign promises for the second term to actually start construction.
GO improvements would be ongoing, but that is more of a trickle and not 1 specific project with ribbon cutting.

I agree, but I think he will want a GO project on resume. Milton line is prime for that. I can see a lot in motion not being canceled.

 

[Allandale25]

Any bets or predictions on which PC MPP becomes Minister of Transportation?

 

[salsa]

Any bets or predictions on which PC MPP becomes Minister of Transportation?

Fortunately, Denzil MW is not in the running.

 

[raptor]

Any bets or predictions on which PC MPP becomes Minister of Transportation?

Rod Phillips

 

[kEiThZ]

The past 10 or 12 years, the Liberals have built 2 major transit project - basically one after the other. As long as the PC's can have 2 projects underway at the same time, it will be viewed as improved progress on transit. Nobody believes that the Liberals would have proceeded concurrently with construction on the numerous projects that they started design.

Right. So the idea that they are going to be building the DRL, Eglinton West, GO RER, Yonge North, etc. all at once, over the next 4 years is clearly ridiculous. I don't even think Metrolinx has the management capacity for any that, let alone the government having the cash flow for it, especially after they cut revenues.

So if I had to pick, I think they finish what is already under construction and/or has significant federal commitment. So Hurontario, Hamilton, London, and Ottawa Stage 2. For Toronto and the GTA, I think they finish Eglinton Crosstown and Finch West and start the SSE, and push for more GO services. Maybe try and pull off something that they can call HSR to Kitchener, if they want a transit coup of sorts. Some kind of faster GO Express service. Beyond that? They don't have the cash flow, or manpower to pull off more. And they won't after the cuts and hiring freeze.

I was responding to the idea that it would be funded even if it meant all other transit projects in Toronto were put on the backburner (not a terribly far fetched idea).

Will those seats be protected if his spending results in healthcare cuts, or the removal of other services that people value?

Absolutely, those seats are valuable. Conservatives haven't had this many seats in Toronto, provincially or federally for decades. And if they can turn most of Scarborough and Etobicoke more reliably blue, that's gold to them. This is why the idea that they'll invest in the DRL is far-fetched to me. They need to deliver in the suburbs this term. That will be their highest of priorities. DRL has to happen at some point. But that some point is their second term. Not this one.

If Ford wants to open the vault and spend on transit everywhere, great. The money will have to come from somewhere given all his other commitments and cuts promised. These aren't being built in a vacuum.

Exactly. Things aren't being built in a vacuum. There are political strategist mapping out electoral gains for every single policy they are going to push. Not just on transit. But on all tax cuts, health care, education, etc. So anybody saying, "XYZ transit project is guaranteed to happen..." is going to very disappointed to find out when they learn that Ford can't deliver everything he's promised.

 

[rbt]

Rod Phillips

Really? You would put him in a a low-end position like Minister of Transportation? He's one of the very few people with actual governing experience (albeit as an employee but still counts).

Elliot and Fedeli will take Health and Finance, but Energy is open and reform in this area was a huge promise (Yakabuski, the energy critic, is a good candidate for whip).


It'll be interesting to see where Raymond Cho ends up.

 

[kEiThZ]

I see almost the opposite. Rely on the federal Liberal election promise to fund 1/3 of all projects and come forward with a number of projects. The federal Liberals would then say that there was only a finite financial commitment, and only 1 or 2 projects can be funded. That will actually spite Trudeau.

Federal spending capacity is far higher than provincial - Trudeau could commit to it all and have it blow up in the province's face. Not exactly the wisest of moves.

Exactly. And that provincial capacity only gets worse after Ford's cuts. Where are people expecting the billions in matching funds that Ford has to provide, to play this game, are going to come from?

Ultimately, this is not about how much is going to get spent in absolute terms. It's about cash flow, since all these projects are going to be spread out over a few years. With Ford already pledging to cut his own cash flow, Trudeau now has room to spend less in Ontario. That's a happy outcome for him. He's going to buy votes elsewhere.

 

[raptor]

Really? You would put him in a a low-end position like Minister of Transportation? He's one of the very few people with actual governing experience (albeit as an employee but still counts).

Elliot and Fedeli will take Health and Finance, but Energy is open and reform in this area was a huge promise (Yakabuski, the energy critic, is a good candidate for whip).

Well, he was the transportation critic, and seems most knowledgeable on transportation. Obviously it means nothing.

 

[kEiThZ]

If Ford can find a way of fixing Eglinton, it would be a win.

1. First off, it would be fully grade-separated - what Ford and his supporters want.
2. It basically goes through a number of PC or near PC ridings.
3. Then it would highlight how bad the Liberal plan was and the entire Eglinton line would be viewed as a PC project.
4. Then it would also have relatively quick completion time.

The only downside is that since it's currently under construction, the cost to do this now may be excessive.

Switching from at-grade to tunnelled is not some trivial matter. Such a major change means years of delay. Not to mention billions in additional spending to tunnel. I think Ford will quietly back off on this one. And SSE will let him do that.

Keep in mind, as planned, ECLRT opens in late 2021. And that assumes no major delays. Do they really want to push delays that will see them not have a ribbon cutting before the next election? Do all the Scarborough MPs care so much about grade separation that they are willing to forego that on their resume?

This is why I say the only new shovels in the ground are likely to be on expanded GO and SSE. Otherwise, whatever is currently in the pipeline outside the 416 and wrapping up what's currently underway in Toronto.

 

[kEiThZ]

They could - and they will be owning the blowbacks.

AoD

Like Ford's voters will care about all about blowback from City Council. Here's my prediction. Scarborough and Etobicoke will back them on this. The PCs will say that Toronto City Council has managed the subway network poorly. And they'll announce they are taking control and will announce the launch of the SSE at the same time, as "proof" that they can get more done.

Heck, if they were really smart (they aren't), they'd put like an extra billion or two in and rebrand the subway network while putting in things like PSDs, and fixing up elevators and escalators and cosmetic fixes as a demonstration of Toronto City Council managing the subway network poorly.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Like Ford's voters will care about all about blowback from City Council. Here's my prediction. Scarborough and Etobicoke will back them on this. They'll say that Toronto City Council has managed the subway network poorly. And they'll announce they are taking control and will announce the launch of the SSE at the same time, as "proof" that they can get more done.

Heck, if they were really smart (they aren't), they'd put like an extra billion or two in and rebrand the subway network while putting in things like PSDs, and fixing up elevators and escalators and cosmetic fixes as a demonstration of Toronto City Council managing the subway network poorly.

I don't mean the blowback from council - they couldn't care less about that. But subways is an ongoing, needy thing - and it is old. If it becomes provincial, the failing also becomes provincial - and there is no way they can avoid the increasing level of overcrowdedness on it.

AoD