2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[christiesplits]

This will never occur while Horwath and the Hamiltonians are in charge. The party needs a reboot, which will hopefully happen when they botch another election (or not, the ONDP seems to like to stick to their guns regardless of what is going on around them).

I think the Ontario NDP, and to a certain extent its federal counterparts, is at the fork in the road when it comes to its Left wing bonfides. Is it a bread and butter labour party, focused on issues like income inequality and labour rights, or does it attempt to reach out to the more urbane, cosmopolitan brand of leftism that seems to fall under the Wynne Liberal Party wing? This can sort of be seen south of the border with the divide between the Bernie Sanders 'class trumps all' rhetoric versus the identity politics emphasized by Clinton et al. Similar divisions can be seen in the 'Old Labour' vs. 'New Labour,' Corbynites vs. Blairites skirmishes in the UK.

The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types - condo dwellers who support issues like public transit and Gay Straight Alliances in schools, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or union rights. Can the folksy Horwath appeal to the Annex and Beaches crowd? Or is the Ontario NDP's energy better spent courting voters in the inner suburbs and Southern Ontario rust belt who feel overworked, have little job security and feel like the shift to the 'knowledge based' economy is leaving them behind? Jack Layton in 2011 was successful in reaching both constituencies. I'm not sure if Horwath can.

 

[torontologist]

The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types - condo dwellers who support issues like public transit and Gay Straight Alliances in schools, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or union rights. Can the folksy Horwath appeal to the Annex and Beaches crowd? Or is the Ontario NDP's energy better spent courting voters in the inner suburbs and Southern Ontario rust belt who feel overworked, have little job security and feel like the shift to the 'knowledge based' economy is leaving them behind? Jack Layton in 2011 was successful in reaching both constituencies. I'm not sure if Horwath can.

Horwath could, if she wanted to. If there ever was a time to abandon pocketbook issues and scoop up lefty voters who sway between the ONDP and the OLP, the time is now, while Wynne is unpopular. Furthermore, they wouldn't have to sacrifice their leftist bonafides, since there is appetite for spending and increased government intervention at the moment (infrastructure, minimum universal income, etc). They could beat the Liberals by swinging left! Since when is that a thing?!

She's the wrong leader at the right time, I suppose.

 

[King of Kensington]

I think the Ontario NDP, and to a certain extent its federal counterparts, is at the fork in the road when it comes to its Left wing bonfides. Is it a bread and butter labour party, focused on issues like income inequality and labour rights, or does it attempt to reach out to the more urbane, cosmopolitan brand of leftism that seems to fall under the Wynne Liberal Party wing? This can sort of be seen south of the border with the divide between the Bernie Sanders 'class trumps all' rhetoric versus the identity politics emphasized by Clinton et al. Similar divisions can be seen in the 'Old Labour' vs. 'New Labour,' Corbynites vs. Blairites skirmishes in the UK.

The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types - condo dwellers who support issues like public transit and Gay Straight Alliances in schools, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or union rights. Can the folksy Horwath appeal to the Annex and Beaches crowd? Or is the Ontario NDP's energy better spent courting voters in the inner suburbs and Southern Ontario rust belt who feel overworked, have little job security and feel like the shift to the 'knowledge based' economy is leaving them behind? Jack Layton in 2011 was successful in reaching both constituencies. I'm not sure if Horwath can.

Good question.

The old riding of Trinity-Spadina as currently reconfigured is not as favorable to the NDP as it used to be, but it'll be interesting to see if the NDP will run strong candidates in Fort York and University-Rosedale ridings.

Interestingly the two ridings the NDP lost had a mix of both the progressive core and working class periphery of the city, Davenport and Beaches-East York. I know this was a big issue for former B-EY MP Matt Kellway when he was the federal party's urban affairs critic.

 

[salsa]

 

[Amare]

View attachment 106682

This is an early sign of how the election will go since Wynne is being so hard headed. She will single handedly be responsible to the collapse of this party.

Well actually to be fair; Deb Matthews, Liz Sandals, Eric Hoskins, Bob Chilabelli and Glenn Thibault all played a hand as well but not to the extent of Wynne.

 

[torontologist]

This is an early sign of how the election will go since Wynne is being so hard headed. She will single handedly be responsible to the collapse of this party.

Well actually to be fair; Deb Matthews, Liz Sandals, Eric Hoskins, Bob Chilabelli and Glenn Thibault all played a hand as well but not to the extent of Wynne.

Or maybe it's just reflective of who the richest proportion of the population vote for (hint... the PCs) who have money to donate. Also, conservatives are much more active during off-cycles (polls, fundraising, byelections) in almost every western democracy. I'd say the amount of donations being equal with the ONDP is arguably the worst sign for them.

What has Wynne been hard headed about?

 

[Northern Light]

Guaranteed income I think is a decent idea but I have serious reservations as this being a new way forward and seems doomed to fail in the long term.

As our population grows and automation reduces the number of jobs, many people will have to live off this income and not work as there are not enough jobs for everyone.

The idea is greater efficiencies through automation will drive up corporate profits and the government will have more money to give to people through taxes.

The issue is any student of history can use some common sense and realize, why would the rich pay money to poor people to sit around and do nothing for them?

Yes rich people pay taxes, but I have this almost dystopian sense it will be more like a small percentage of the population will live in luxury and everyone else is barely getting by with basic income funds just to get by.

Therefore I do think its a good way to solve poverty but I have serious reservations about it being a complete solution to your future society in reducing inequality. It seems it would rather cause everyone out of the elites to be at a permeant low end instead.

Automation will surely reduce low-skill employment in total hours relative to total population.

That said, there are policy tools to address this.

Overtime, one can raise the skill level of much of the population. That is not about assuming everyone is getting a graduate degree; but it may be everything from loosening apprenticeship rules (Ontario has a space shortage) to lower tuition for community college; to, perhaps most importantly, improving primary and secondary education, with a particular focus on not letting 20% of the population, fall so far behind, so early.

Clearly, that's not enough of a move; there will always be lower-skill workers, and some, in the years ahead, will have difficulty finding a job or full-time hours.

The latter requires, beyond basic income, tightening the labour supply so as to distribute the remaining jobs/hours more evenly.

The most visible method, but one not yet required here is reducing the work week to 30-35 hours.

Before we get there, it means bring paid vacation levels more in line w/global norms, 4 weeks in much of the world, making sabbaticals a standard offer in more jobs (collect 90% of your pay, get one year off, paid, every 10 years or six months every 5 years), and drive higher uptake of parental leaves, including adding a paternity leave.

These can't be done all at once, nor should they be.

But at some point, some or all will be needed to ensure everyone has the opportunity to contribute to society and have an adequate income.

That's not a socialist utopia, merely pragmatic necessity, in the fullness of time.

 

[Northern Light]

Childcare announcement, incoming.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...it-advocates-say-ahead-of-ontario-budget.html

 

[SJD_Toronto]

This is an early sign of how the election will go since Wynne is being so hard headed. She will single handedly be responsible to the collapse of this party.

Well actually to be fair; Deb Matthews, Liz Sandals, Eric Hoskins, Bob Chilabelli and Glenn Thibault all played a hand as well but not to the extent of Wynne.

Don't forget Charles Sousa, Mitzie Hunter and that awful Glenn Murray.

 

[BurlOak]

Or maybe it's just reflective of who the richest proportion of the population vote for (hint... the PCs) who have money to donate. Also, conservatives are much more active during off-cycles (polls, fundraising, byelections) in almost every western democracy. I'd say the amount of donations being equal with the ONDP is arguably the worst sign for them.

What has Wynne been hard headed about?

Here's the first google hit I found that was remotely close, from 2013.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-political-party-fundraising-largest-donors-1.3540674

Of the top 25 political donators, 1 donated more to the PC's than the Liberals.

Generally, big business (and public sector unions) supports Liberals, individuals and small business support PC, and private sector unions support NDP.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Generally, big business (and public sector unions) supports Liberals, individuals and small business support PC, and private sector unions support NDP.

Not quite - from National Post:

http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2011/10/na1005_politicaldonors-eps.gif
From http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/graphic-the-flow-of-political-donations-in-ontario

Also, it is not that helpful to just look at donation at one point in time - what you need is look at patterns across multiple years/governments/changes in government. Just think - how would a change in government (or potential change) affect who to donate to, if the end goal is to affect public policy? What about what issue happens to be on the front burner of the government agenda? That affects sectoral involvement.

AoD

 

[Amare]

What has Wynne been hard headed about?

Resigning and letting the party at least stand somewhat of a chance in the 2018 election.

 

[Palma]

We can say goodbye to any future supertalls in Toronto at this point since the downtown councillors pretty much oppose them as-is.

thats gerat news. Perhaps we will get better looking condos also

 

[MetroMan]

Guaranteed income I think is a decent idea but I have serious reservations as this being a new way forward and seems doomed to fail in the long term.

As our population grows and automation reduces the number of jobs, many people will have to live off this income and not work as there are not enough jobs for everyone.

The idea is greater efficiencies through automation will drive up corporate profits and the government will have more money to give to people through taxes.

The issue is any student of history can use some common sense and realize, why would the rich pay money to poor people to sit around and do nothing for them?

Yes rich people pay taxes, but I have this almost dystopian sense it will be more like a small percentage of the population will live in luxury and everyone else is barely getting by with basic income funds just to get by.

Therefore I do think its a good way to solve poverty but I have serious reservations about it being a complete solution to your future society in reducing inequality. It seems it would rather cause everyone out of the elites to be at a permeant low end instead.

Not to get too deep into this discussion but some job categories will evaporate but others that we haven't even begun to imagine will pop up in their place. Who the heck would have ever predicted the job of social media manager for example?

I read recently that somebody did a comparison of the number of bank tellers before and after the mass rollout of Automated Banking Machines. Guess what? There are more people working in banking than before their jobs were allegedly taken by machines. What happened? Tellers free from having to sit at counters manually managing cash and cheques and dealing with customers found more productive and profitable roles selling banking services instead. Think about that for a second: there are more bankers than there were before "machines took their jobs".

Perhaps the concept of thousands of workers working for a company is beginning to go away for the majority of would be employees. Decentralized employment is returning to where individuals sell their skills and many often barter with no money exchanged. We're coming full circle to what it used to be like before the industrial revolution.

On the purchasing power side of things, increased automation will drive prices down for manufactured goods and breakthroughs in agricultural sciences will make food more affordable or even freely distributed in the form of nutrition rather than food — a basic utility like water.

Think of how today, a super computer in your pocket costs a few hundred bucks. In 1985, a cellular telefone cost $6,000 (in 1985 dollars!). Electronics today make up an increasing segment of all manufactured goods and they're becoming impossibly cheap with no apparent end in sight.

Then, you have 3D printing. That in itself will change manufacturing and create those same unexpected jobs that I mentioned. Need a set of new dinner plates? Print them. Imagine that in the near future, some lady in Nunvut has gone viral with her beautiful dinner plates design. She lives in an isolated community but makes a living selling her creativity.

All this to say, we can't predict the future and jobs will certainly not go away. They'll just change.

Circling back to the topic, a guaranteed minimum income is a good idea. It will provide exactly that: a minimum income. Most people won't be satisfied with just paying the rent and putting food on the table. For a nicer lifestyle, they'll sell their talents to the world at large or to companies that still require those skills that computers simply cannot do because they lack something that only humans have.

 

[Palma]

cheap food is garbage foot and genetically modified and who knows what else. Food is not expensive but organic foods are more so but still in relation to percentage of earnings way less than hydro. July is tax free where Canadians finally start making money for themselves. With food prices, its Feb