2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[narduch]

Doug Ford is a lazy opportunist. He didn't seem interested in putting in the work or time during the regular leadership campaign.

 

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if the Liberals might be able to 'cushion' their defeat by saving a half dozen or so seats in the 905? I don't think 'strategic' voting' is as much of a factor in these ridings, particularly the ethnoburbs, where "left wing vs. right wing" doesn't really resonate. I'm thinking Mississauga, Brampton and some of York Region.

No, they almost certainly won't be holding any 905 seats. Sousa is 20 points behind in his own riding.

The federal Conservatives got over 40% in York Region in the last election. If the Liberals only edged out the Conservatives during "Trudeaumania '15" it's almost certainly going to be a blue sweep this time.

The Liberals are a distant third in Brampton.

 

[Northern Light]

Time for a quick 'horse race' update

Too Close to Call

PC 67 NDP 53 LIB 4 GRN 0

Election Prediction

PC 37 NDP 34 LIB 9 GRN 1 TCTC 43

Ontario Poll Tracker

PC 70, NDP 50, LIB 4, GRN 0

LISPOP

PC 64 NDP 48 LIB 12 GRN 0

 

[King of Kensington]

Some Mainstreet riding polls recapped (for subscribers, but I'm giving general picture).

Toronto ridings:

Don Valley East: Three-way race with PCs in the lead

Don Valley North: PCs have comfortable lead

Don Valley West: Liberals have small lead over the PCs

Eglinton-Lawrence: Three-way race with Liberals basically tied with PCs thanks to surprisingly strong showing by the NDP (!)

Scarborough Southwest: NDP has narrow lead over PCs

St. Paul's: Liberals and NDP basically tied (!)

Toronto Centre: NDP has big lead

905 ridings:

Ajax: PC have big lead

Brampton North: NDP and PCs basically tied

Brampton South: PCs have comfortable lead

Brampton West: NDP and PCs basically tied

Mississauga-Lakeshore: PCs have big lead

Others:

Guelph: Greens have small lead over NDP, PCs in third

Kingston and the Islands: NDP in the lead

Ottawa South: Three way race with PCs in the lead, Liberals and NDP close second and third

Ottawa West-Nepean: Three way race NDP and PCs tied, Liberals close third

Sarnia-Lambton: PCs have comfortable lead

St. Catharines: NDP in the lead

Sudbury: NDP in the lead, PCs distant second

 

[King of Kensington]

Seriously, Ford is guaranteed about 1/3 of the vote just being a man and by saying "I"m not left-wing!"

 

[Videodrome]

https://pressprogress.ca/this-white...ding-him-anti-immigrant-dog-whistle-messages/

Doug probably shouldn't have said that...

 

[narduch]

Seriously, Ford is guaranteed about 1/3 of the vote just being a man and by saying "I"m not left-wing!"

Yup.

And early in the campaign it appeared to be working. And it still might.

 

[WislaHD]

Those riding polls are indicative of a massive Liberal collapse. I'd be surprised if they had double digit seats at this point.

What an unfortunate timing for the Liberal machine to finally run out of steam. Ugh.

 

[Videodrome]

Éric Grenier‏Verified account@EricGrenierCBC 4m4 minutes ago
Well now, the new Pollara poll is breaking from the pack and showing an 11-point NDP lead. That is not a tie.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/th...rio-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

Outlier?

 

[King of Kensington]

Well I just got polled by Forum #proofofconspiracyagainstford

 

[Videodrome]

Given that I still have a land line, we are getting tons of calls from pollsters and candidates...

 

[SunriseChampion]

https://pressprogress.ca/this-white...ding-him-anti-immigrant-dog-whistle-messages/

Doug probably shouldn't have said that...

From the linked article:

In the same broadcast, recently documented by the Anti-Racist Canada Collective, Ford’s white nationalist supporters discuss a range of topics:

Driving “mainstream conservatives” to fascism: Predicting they can convince “the basic bitch conservative” to embrace Nazism and fascism “in droves,” just like the good old days “before World War II when Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini were rising into power”;

Piece of shit dares hang a Canadian flag? These people aren't fit to be boot-stomped by some brownshirts.

Good old days? What a dumb c***. He'd probably end up screaming for mercy as half his limbs lay ten yards away in the rubble of the city in which he grew up....in the good old days.

These people bother me, they can't even get their shit straight. Confuse history completely. Hitler wouldn't have anything to do with these dicks except as labour or cannon fodder.

Degens.

Sorry, I hate fascism.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Come on Guelph....be the one to vote for actual change.

 

[Northern Light]

Sorry, I hate fascism.

Don't be Sorry. Hating Fascism is never something for which an apology is required.

 

[Hopkins123]

I don't think you meant "liberalism" in a way that reflective of what the term actually meant. In any case, don't blame the media and the opponents - each and every time the words came from the mouth of the party leaders.

AoD

Yeah, I just meant it like the Liberals' agenda in general veering too far left and abandoning the centre-right. Ford's not getting favorable coverage by any stretch, but part of this is self-inflicted though, I agree, as the party wanted no press gallery following him on the campaign trail.

I'm just ready for this whole ordeal to be over with.