Admiral Beez
Superstar
Then what were you apologizing for? What did you do?
I suggest not apologizing when you’re not sorry.
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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion
- Thread starter MetroMan
- Start date
I suggest not apologizing when you’re not sorry.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
St. Paul's has not voted Conservative since it was established as a provincial riding in 1999, and has not voted for the federal Conservatives since the Mulroney era!
Blue blobs on a map are irrelevant. It's the number of votes cast that count.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
I didn't realize that Eric Hoskins and Carolyn Bennett were Conservatives!
Hopkins123
Senior Member
Apart from the collapse in 2003, Conservatives' share of the vote has increased steadily in every election since. And yes, there is no popular incumbent running for the Liberals this time.
The Tories have a solid base in Forest Hill (the map I just looked at on my phone confirms my earlier statement was right). It's the outskirts of the riding where Liberals are drawing their support from (Fairbank, Davisville-Mt Pleasant, Humewood), but these areas could just as well slide into the NDP's camp - making St Paul's a three way race where the Tories could come up the middle and win.
SunriseChampion
Senior Member
I don't remember my teachers (the French Immersion ones) being paid less than my other teachers. They were all under the same contract as far as I could tell. I mean the one teacher who had a serious fine cheese and wine habit and collected rare stamps sure as hell wasn't underpaid, that's for sure.
My point was that there is no difference between Catholic and public schools in terms of "trouble" (in whichever way one might mean this) students. Believe me, my schools were full of hilariously problematic kids. I brought this up because Admiral Beeze made it seem like there might be a difference between the two school systems in this regard.
SunriseChampion
Senior Member
Oh, ffs, it's a figure of speech...."I'm sorry, but...."
I'm sure you knew this.
Why would I pre-emptively apologise for anything I knew to be true in my own experience without having evidence that anyone would find it offensive?
adma
Superstar
Yeah, to interpret "plurality" in terms of geographic coverage would truly be a sign of electoral-cartographic idiocy on Hopkins 123's part. Look: those big blotches of blue on the St. Paul's electoral map are affluent low-density, Forest Hill and all. *Much* lower density than Fairbank/Davisville-Mt Pleasant/Humewood.
If we were to cast that geographic barometer more broadly across Ontario, then the Tories would have won Southern Ontario solidly in 2014 (all those blue rural polls taking a lot more space than the red/orange-dominant urban nodes); and the NDP would have won *all* of Ontario because of all those First Nations polls in the far north taking up so much endless square mileage...
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Plurality refers to votes, not geographical area - to claim that the map validates the statement when the actual vote count is anything but is a little fanciful.
AoD
AoD
SunriseChampion
Senior Member
A plurality of land area divisions are inhabited by those who vote Conservative......is what I'm sure the OP was trying to say.
Though, I don't see how that means anything....which is why I'm actually not sure what the OP was trying to say.
Also, completely unrelated, but I'm not sure if you got my PM or not from yesterday. My PMs don't function properly for some reason.
WislaHD
Superstar
Let's get this straight. If Liberals lost St. Pauls, then they probably are finishing the election with less seats than you could count on one hand.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Except that the riding isn't decided based on further subdivisions by geographical area - it doens't matter if conservatives voters occupy 99% of the space in it.
re: PM - ah, I rarely use it so I don't check it often - will respond.
AoD
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SunriseChampion
Senior Member
Crazy odds would be on a bet that Liberals lose St Pauls whilst Ford loses in Etobicoke North.
I'd put a tenner on that combo cause my payout would probably be enough to buy a waterfront 1 bedroom flat in a decent building.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
Nope. The PC vote was 24.7% in 2003, 26.5% in 2007, 20.9% in 2011 and 23.9% in 2014.
But the PCs are led by Doug Ford which is at least as big a liability in that riding as the lack of a popular incumbent. And their candidate is a nobody, and the Tories would be wise not to sink resources there.
Anyway if the PCs do pull off a win there you have the right to get accolades for having seen it coming! But I have my doubts.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
If Ontario politics became like Manitoba politics, St. Paul's would be the equivalent of the Liberal holdout of River Heights.
adma
Superstar
If by "land area divisions" you're talking about polling stations, even that's not true.
http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/
Check out the interactive map for St Paul's in 2014. Out of 205 polling stations, only 14 went PC. It's just that those 14 have *large* polling boundaries, being as they are in low-density neighbourhoods...