2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

[King of Kensington]

No. I'd consider Ainslie and Bailão swing votes, rather than being on Council's right. They both voted against the mayor on some issues, and I think help to moderate council. I strongly suspect Mike Colle to be a swing vote.

I would agree that Bradford and McKelvie are unknowns, but I expect to both to end up in the swing vote category, supporting things like the Scarborough Subway and Gardiner East (as they're important to Tory) but not eager to support things like major budget cuts, and will support at least some cycling infrastructure. Cynthia Lai will most likely be a right-wing councillor, but a reasonable one, like Thompson or Robinson, rather than a Holyday or Karygiannis.

Re: Robinson/Burnside - if I was voting in DVW, I probably would have left the councillor blank.

 

[bobbob911]

Does Tory move in either direction as a result of the new council?

We'll know soon enough, if he keeps DMW as the deputy mayor.

 

[ShonTron]

We'll know soon enough, if he keeps DMW as the deputy mayor.

Indeed. Let's see who his picks are for the real deputy mayor, the ceremonial deputy mayors (if any this time) and the executive committee.

Bradford and Bailão are likely picks for Tory's inner circle. Let's see who else gets in.

 

[adma]

For some reason, I can already picture Bradford as being groomed for the mayoralty in 2022.

 

[King of Kensington]

I'd love to see Jimmy K. go down but I don't see that happening. Norm Kelly may have the "uncle Norm" thing but Karygiannis is one of the most formidable campaigners in the country.

Was right about this though.

 

[Videodrome]

Norm can do his 6Dad thing still. He was probably better off losing.

 

[adma]

He also had the ward draw working against him (i.e. losing everything S of 401, which was probably more his comfort zone)

 

[Islington Express Bus]

For some reason, I can already picture Bradford as being groomed for the mayoralty in 2022.

Groomed by who?

 

[adma]

Groomed by who?

John Tory's operatives. Duh

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Ugh Bradford is leading. I'm disgusted by the "I have no values, will do anything" politics.

If Brad Bradford wins this is a very good result for Tory btw.

Except Bradford changed all of his answers two weeks before the election to be able to get into the tory camp. He's bascially Carmichael-Gerb at this point. To me he's more disgusting than an openly conservative politician like Kelly, Pasternak or even the Fords.

Do you know Brad?

I have to say, I'm mixed on this one.

I had lengthy conversations w/both Kellway and Bradford and came off feeling like they both had the right answers on public policy.

I am going to step in here.

Bradford was put in a silly position. Let's recap what happened:

1) He is an urban planner by trade and worked in Keesmaat's office.
2) He left his position to run for office
3) He received the John Tory endorsement in January, 2018
4) Jen Keesmaat unexpectedly decides to run on July 27th, 2018
5) Brad Bradford is caught in an unusual position where he is endorsed by BOTH mayoral candidates

So can we dispel with the notion that Brad Bradford, who seems otherwise like a very good, new face for city council, is somehow a flip-flopper or having 'no values'.

Or, 'basically Carmichael-Greb'. Which I think ranks as fourth lowest insult you can make about a city councillor, after 1) 'basically Mammoliti'; 2) 'basically Glen deBaeremaeker'; and 3) 'basically Stephen Holyday', in that order.

Now, Brad Bradford does owe a lot to John Tory and will likely be a part of his inner circle (next TTC Chair anyone?), but this should be a good thing. He can moderate Tory's inner circle just as Pam McConnell did, or, he might have a political spine to him and be regularly voting his conscious by the end of Tory's second term. Absolutely no reason to be so fatalistic at this point in time.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Re: Robinson/Burnside - if I was voting in DVW, I probably would have left the councillor blank.

This was me. And a very odd race to vote in as neither of the two were my previous councilor.

My vote ended up going to Burnside. I am fairly disappointed that he lost.

While both were very strong Tory allies, the difference was, Jaye Robinson is Queen NIMBY in the city. I am likely preaching to the choir on UrbanToronto, but I cannot stand nimby politicians standing in the way of housing being built amidst our overall housing crisis.

Moreover, Robinson had promised to be a two-term councilor when she was first elected. Wards being merged and running against a fellow incumbent who you aligned with politically would have been a good time to step aside, no?

 

[christiesplits]

So can we dispel with the notion that Brad Bradford, who seems otherwise like a very good, new face for city council, is somehow a flip-flopper or having 'no values'.

I see Bradford following Mary Margaret McMahon's approach, who endorsed Bradford, was loyal to Tory, and had her team work for Bradford's campaign. He'll vote 'progressive' on issues like parks and bike lanes, while supporting Tory on big platform issues like keeping taxes below inflation and unabashedly supporting the Scarborough subway.

Kellway would have been a far more reliable progressive vote, especially on issues like transit and housing. I am crossing my fingers that Bradford will 'see the light,' but his indebtedness to Tory might be too big to overcome.

 

[Thorns_Embrace]

From the poll by poll results you can find here I am just going to do some analysis on ward 25 where McKelvie beat Shan
It was a really interesting race. I would like someone like to map this out. My read of the results is that Shan crushed his old ward. The interesting point it Shan really flopped south of the 401, and it cost him the race. This was a really interesting result that would have made more sense if McKelvie was an incumbent councilor but she isn't so I am surprised at the vote share she received(even though i was shilling for her through the election).

Ward 23 was also interesting. it seems like Cynthia Lai actually won more polls than you would expect for someone who had 25% of the vote which shows she has spread out support across the ward. Looking at Felicia Samuel she is the inverse where she did well in a few polls but flopped everywhere else.
Does anyone else find anything interesting in the poll by poll data?

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

They're out
https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/elections/general-information/election-results/

Hmm, that was fun to comb through. I hope someone makes an interactive map to examine the results more closely.

I only looked in my ward. Burnside overwhelmingly won south of Eglinton as well as in North Leaside. Robinson overwhelmingly won Lawrence Park and associated areas. There are more suburban style subdivisions north of Lawrence than Mt. Pleasant-Davisville and Leaside put together, thus explaining Robinson's on-aggregate victory.

Very low voter turnout in Flemingdon and Thorncliffe Park. No wonder candidates don't bother campaigning in immigrant apartment towers. They would have had better election-day results if they spent that time campaigning in the very low-density Bridle Path than they would in the very high density Flemingdon/Thorncliffe area.

 

[adma]

From the poll by poll results you can find here I am just going to do some analysis on ward 25 where McKelvie beat Shan
It was a really interesting race. I would like someone like to map this out. My read of the results is that Shan crushed his old ward. The interesting point it Shan really flopped south of the 401, and it cost him the race. This was a really interesting result that would have made more sense if McKelvie was an incumbent councilor but she isn't so I am surprised at the vote share she received(even though i was shilling for her through the election).

In a way, McKelvie was to 2018 what Di Ciano and Campbell were to 2014: the close seconds those two received in 2010 made them instant frontrunners in their old home turf.

Speaking of Campbell, from the numbers it'd seem that DoFo's "endorsee" Angelo Carnevale (who ran against him in '14) crippled him in his own home turf