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2014 Ontario Provincial Election

I live in York South-Weston. Had a robo call today from Frances Nunziata to vote for Liberal Laura Albanese. Are they trying to lose? I consider Frances Nunziata to be a lapdog for Rob Ford. They should have used someone else.

Will still vote for Liberal Laura Albanese, without Frances.
 
Final poll numbers ranked by 2011 success. Eligible/decided voters
Forum (Jun 11) Libs 41v... PC 35=... NDP 20^... Grn 3v
Abacus (Jun 11) Libs 35^... PC 32^... NDP 26v... Grn 6^
Angus (Jun 10) Libs 36... PC 32.... NDP 26... Grn 5
Ekos (Jun 11) Libs 37=. PC 31^... NDP 19v.. Grn 8^
Ipsos (Jun 11) Libs 33v... PC 31v... NDP 30^... Oth 5^

There seems to be a real divide by the different formulas. The IVR/telephone polls (Forum, Ekos) has the Libs up by 6 and the NDP in the low 20s. The online eligible polls (Abacus, Angus, Ipsos) seems to have a slight Liberal lead by 3 and the NPD over 25. But their likely voters formula seem to not be able to agree with each other that it's everything from tie, small PC lead and large PC lead. Which kind of makes me wonder about the credibility of the likely voter system any of the three online/PC leaning can't agree by how much. My Final data analysis of eligible/decided voters Libs 38, PC 33, NDP 23 Grn 5. If you looked at the "likely" voter numbers I got Lib 36. PC 36, NDP 23 and Grn 5.

The same formula I did with averaging percentage, I just did with projection sites. I took 5 (supposedly) independent projection site. Ranked them from their 2011 projection success and average it out with weight on the more successful site (I think some will be surprised who had the most success in 2011) The data analysis of the 5 projection site come out for me in seats. Lib 48, PC 38, NDP 21

Projection sites ranked by success of 2011
Election prediction: Lib 48, PC 39, NDP 20 (they had a great total seats success in 2011, off by just one seat, giving PC one seat that the Liberals actually won)
Cndian elxn almanic: Lib 46, PC 38 NDP 23
Lispop: Lib 49, PC 38, NDP 20
308: Lib 49, PC 36, NDP22
2close2call: Lib 47, PC 38, NDP 22 (I ranked them last because it's their debut this election)
 
My popular vote prediction is Liberals 36%, PCs 35%, NDP 23%

The Liberal vote is generally more efficient than the PC vote as the latter piles up huge pluralities in rural constituencies particularly in Eastern Ontario. So I'm thinking a Liberal minority.

I'm going to update my seat projection slightly to 47 Liberals, 39 Tories and 21 NDP.

I say the Tories pick up Brant, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Ottawa-Orleans but lose Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

Sticking with my prediction of the NDP losing Davenport and Trinity-Spadina to the Liberals but picking up Sudbury and Windsor West.
 
The weather is also unexpectedly good, so hopefully more people will come out to vote this evening.
 
I think the PC's could have won this if it weren't for Tea Party Tim's Teapublican platform.
 
A Liberal majority is exactly what Ontario needs to cleanse the opposition of their right wing populism. It's exciting that it's even a possibility.
 
gabe said:
I think the PC's could have won this if it weren't for Tea Party Tim's Teapublican platform.
Click to expand...
Yep. All they had to do was promise to run the gov't as is, but with better purse strings management.

Threatening to fire 100K civil servants was stupid. Nearly everyone in Ontario has a direct or extended family member who works for the Province, be it nurses, teachers, police, whatever.
 
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