AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
I would love to have a IBM Watson like system where it could also 'fact check' what the candidates said in almost real-time.
AoD
AoD
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2014 Ontario Provincial Election
- Thread starter ShonTron
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denfromoakvillemilton
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jje1000
Senior Member
Saw those and definitely am concerned. I don't know how true the "Thinks they will win" aspect is- I think everyone more or less knows that a PC victory is definitely possible, and that the Liberals are only hanging on by a thread.
I do agree very much on the point that PC voters are extremely motivated- I think it's the same 'revenge' dynamic that brought Ford to power.
I think it's even worse when incorrect facts are continuously spewed out by all sides without stop. I think that debates have been moving from active debates to sessions of political promotion and little debate. But all things aside, I agree with your points.
StatGeek
Active Member
Reading political talking heads always make me want to take a shower afterwards. They are just so slimy . For example Kinsella is quoting Bricker analysis (who is connected to Ipsos) to push is NDP as logical choice to defeat the PC's. But LITERALLY a week ago Kinsella was in a twitter argument with Bricker and John Wright (both Ipsos guys) when they said Ford would have "easily" won if it wasn't for his personal problems, where Kinsella (properly) said the Ipsos guys are wrong
https://twitter.com/darrellbricker/status/471071228980391936
I am amazed that such a high ranking/popular polling agency is so wrong on their analysis (like I said I think the numbers are right, but the spin/analysis can be BS) For example Bricker agreed the Stintz "Ford would get easily re-elected if not for this personal problems". Not true. Rob Ford lost a third of his support in his first year in office. Dropping his approval rating from a good 60% into the 40's. Ford was already trying to split the vote as he knew there no way he can get 50% under any circumstance and knowing the best he could do is maybe get 35% (which again is about losing a quarter of the votes he got during his election)
Bricker said "Ford's approval level was mid-40s which is more than enough."... No it's not. 45% is a horrible number for a Mayor. Now 45% is great for a Premiere or PM because they have official opposition (2 or 3, maybe even 4 of them if you count the green), who has almost equal media attention and loyal supporters. so getting 45% of the pie is pretty good. But a Mayor, his approval rating is all on himself. When more than half of the people disapprove without even having an official opposition, you are in trouble.
I don't mean to bring up Ford here, but with analysis this off by Bricker when concerning Ford it really makes me wonder how competent they are analyzing numbers. The understanding that 40% for a Mayor and 40% for a PM or Premiere is basic analysis stuff (that's why it's common for popular mayors with 60% but hardly to see a Premiere or PM with 60% even if they are popular) . Or did Bricker think 40% approval means you will get 40% of the vote (which is never the case when concerning Mayors)
https://twitter.com/darrellbricker/status/471071228980391936
I am amazed that such a high ranking/popular polling agency is so wrong on their analysis (like I said I think the numbers are right, but the spin/analysis can be BS) For example Bricker agreed the Stintz "Ford would get easily re-elected if not for this personal problems". Not true. Rob Ford lost a third of his support in his first year in office. Dropping his approval rating from a good 60% into the 40's. Ford was already trying to split the vote as he knew there no way he can get 50% under any circumstance and knowing the best he could do is maybe get 35% (which again is about losing a quarter of the votes he got during his election)
Bricker said "Ford's approval level was mid-40s which is more than enough."... No it's not. 45% is a horrible number for a Mayor. Now 45% is great for a Premiere or PM because they have official opposition (2 or 3, maybe even 4 of them if you count the green), who has almost equal media attention and loyal supporters. so getting 45% of the pie is pretty good. But a Mayor, his approval rating is all on himself. When more than half of the people disapprove without even having an official opposition, you are in trouble.
I don't mean to bring up Ford here, but with analysis this off by Bricker when concerning Ford it really makes me wonder how competent they are analyzing numbers. The understanding that 40% for a Mayor and 40% for a PM or Premiere is basic analysis stuff (that's why it's common for popular mayors with 60% but hardly to see a Premiere or PM with 60% even if they are popular) . Or did Bricker think 40% approval means you will get 40% of the vote (which is never the case when concerning Mayors)
denfromoakvillemilton
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This is a pretty analyis, but my issue is the anger towards the Ontario Liberals. I really think people are the right take this too seriously.
denfromoakvillemilton
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innsertnamehere
Superstar
Two new polls out today:
Abacus/Toronto Sun Poll
Eligible Voters: OLP 37%, PC 30%, NDP 24%
Likely Voters: OLP 37%, PC 35%, NDP 22%
EKOS/iPolitics Polls, +/- numbers are from EKOS' last poll
Eligible Voters: OLP 38.5% (+2.7), PC 33.7% (+3.7), NDP 16.9% (-3.5), GRN 7.8% (-4.1%)
Looks like the liberals are holding at least some form of consistent lead. They are even approaching majority territory in EKOS' poll.
Abacus/Toronto Sun Poll
Eligible Voters: OLP 37%, PC 30%, NDP 24%
Likely Voters: OLP 37%, PC 35%, NDP 22%
EKOS/iPolitics Polls, +/- numbers are from EKOS' last poll
Eligible Voters: OLP 38.5% (+2.7), PC 33.7% (+3.7), NDP 16.9% (-3.5), GRN 7.8% (-4.1%)
Looks like the liberals are holding at least some form of consistent lead. They are even approaching majority territory in EKOS' poll.
nfitz
Superstar
Such bizarre polling.
People are pissed off at the Liberals for what's happened in the last 10 years. People are pissed at the NDP for campaigning to the right of the Liberals, and turning down the most NDP-like budget in decades. People are pissed off at the Tories for running an extremely right-wing campaign, promising big cuts to education, and trying to make even deeper cuts than Mike Harris made.
I'd say pretty much any outcome is possible, other than and NDP victory - the polls have all been pretty solid on dropping NDP support. Tory majority? Liberal Majority? Liberal Minority? Tory Minority? Tory-NDP coalition? Liberal-NDP coalition? I suspect a Liberal-Tory coalition isn't in the cards.
I suspect the result won't even be clear after the election, assume it's not a majority or strong minority.
Recall after the 1985 election, Premier Miller (Tory) got 52 seats compared to 48 for the Liberals (63 being required for a majority). As Premier, Miller continued to try and govern as a minorty, and it took 6 weeks before Parliament resumed and the Tories lost a non-confidence vote, leading to the Liberal minority government, with support from the NDP.
People are pissed off at the Liberals for what's happened in the last 10 years. People are pissed at the NDP for campaigning to the right of the Liberals, and turning down the most NDP-like budget in decades. People are pissed off at the Tories for running an extremely right-wing campaign, promising big cuts to education, and trying to make even deeper cuts than Mike Harris made.
I'd say pretty much any outcome is possible, other than and NDP victory - the polls have all been pretty solid on dropping NDP support. Tory majority? Liberal Majority? Liberal Minority? Tory Minority? Tory-NDP coalition? Liberal-NDP coalition? I suspect a Liberal-Tory coalition isn't in the cards.
I suspect the result won't even be clear after the election, assume it's not a majority or strong minority.
Recall after the 1985 election, Premier Miller (Tory) got 52 seats compared to 48 for the Liberals (63 being required for a majority). As Premier, Miller continued to try and govern as a minorty, and it took 6 weeks before Parliament resumed and the Tories lost a non-confidence vote, leading to the Liberal minority government, with support from the NDP.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
there is talk of that possibly occurring again if Hudak wins a minority.
Personally I'm seeing it go right back to almost exactly where we were before the election with some seats switching hands but the total count remaining essentially flat.
Personally I'm seeing it go right back to almost exactly where we were before the election with some seats switching hands but the total count remaining essentially flat.
Bayer
Senior Member
What I would hope is for actual facts to be debated, especially regarding the deficit.
My provincial income tax for last year is 57% lower than what it would have been had I lived in Quebec. My total income taxes are 16% lower. That is what I would like journalists and politicians to talk about, instead of entertaining the lie that we overspend and are overtaxed. The last thing we need in Ontario is to reduce taxes or services. No one wants to pay more taxes, but that is what we need now.
My provincial income tax for last year is 57% lower than what it would have been had I lived in Quebec. My total income taxes are 16% lower. That is what I would like journalists and politicians to talk about, instead of entertaining the lie that we overspend and are overtaxed. The last thing we need in Ontario is to reduce taxes or services. No one wants to pay more taxes, but that is what we need now.
StatGeek
Active Member
I think you hit the story of this election perfectly. I think every party has an expiring date after a decade Liberals are close to that, but Hudak is viewed as just too right-wing extreme, and Horwath comes off as a party opportunists even in spite of good left-wing policy.
I honestly don't think the polling is nearly as wacky as most (308 for example) make it out to be. Last week both Ekos and Forum had a Liberal 6-point lead with Abacus had a small Liberal lead and Ipsos having a big PC lead. A week later Ekos and Abacus has a 5-7 point Liberal lead with Forum saying it's tied and Ipsos now having a slight lead for PC. The numbers for me has been a consistent tie to slight (3-point max) lead for the Liberals.
Recent top 4 polls
Forum (May 27) Libs 36v... PC 36^... NDP 20=... Grn 7^
Abacus (May 31) Libs 37^... PC 30v... NDP 24v... Grn 7^
Ekos (Jun 1) Libs 39^... PC 34^... NDP 17v... Grn 8v (At least they don't have that strange 12% number anymore)
Ipsos (May 29) Libs 34^... PC 36^... NDP 23v... Oth 6^
It hasn't really hit the mainstream yet but Nanos just came out with their poll. Lib 38, PC 31, NDP 24, Grn 5%. (another 7 point Liberal lead poll) In 2011 Nanos had a middle of the pack prediction (Not as good as Forum and Abacus, but better than Ekos and much better than Ipsos) where Nanos were off by two percent by giving Liberal 2 more points and PC 2 less points.
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TrickyRicky
Senior Member
I will still be emphatically voting PC. I suspect the outcome will be little changed as insertnamehere suggests. The up side to a Liberal victory is still the possibility of Hudak stepping down.
In a way I think one of the big issues in this election is the attack advertisement by the public sector unions. For many undecided voters and voters who don't pay attention I think that these adds will bolster the Liberal vote at the expense of the NDP. For many PC decided voters I think they will motivate them to go out and vote PC.
I still think that the voter turn out for this election will be one of if not the lowest in Ontario history. Any change in results will be because of who is motivated to vote. The PC's and the Liberals will both have people motivated to vote based on if they belong to Public sector Unions or if they are offended by the status quo that is being maintained by Public sector Union interests. The two may just cancel each other out.
In a way I think one of the big issues in this election is the attack advertisement by the public sector unions. For many undecided voters and voters who don't pay attention I think that these adds will bolster the Liberal vote at the expense of the NDP. For many PC decided voters I think they will motivate them to go out and vote PC.
I still think that the voter turn out for this election will be one of if not the lowest in Ontario history. Any change in results will be because of who is motivated to vote. The PC's and the Liberals will both have people motivated to vote based on if they belong to Public sector Unions or if they are offended by the status quo that is being maintained by Public sector Union interests. The two may just cancel each other out.
Bayer
Senior Member
I have been self-employed for 25 years but I can't stand union-bashing, and I will be motivated to vote because the PC platform is based on demolition and failed ideology and not on what this province really needs - that is, higher taxes. As I have no television I am not subjected to superficial sound bites and pointless debates that might influence the result but, in so doing, only demonstrate the general electorate's gullibility (the famous Mulroney-Turner exchange, which I remember clearly, comes to mind).
Electrify
Senior Member
I wish more people were like you. There are plenty of places with lower taxes, but their quality of life and public services suffer because of it. All things considered, we get a hell of a deal in terms of taxes paid and services received.
Jonny5
Senior Member
Wow. Just watched 5 minutes of the "debate" aka hyper-scripted, dumbed-down garbage for digestion by the average person aka fat, dumb, illeterate trash. Hutard=Whorevath=Win my vote for money. Absolute worthless shit perpetually whoring themselves to the human trash of Ontario.