jml
Active Member
That Forum poll must have spooked Chow good. Her campaign sent out a robocall tonight and I just got an email from them asking me to "pledge my vote".
Soknacki at 5% I think is still in it for the long haul hoping for a "Nenshi"..
Why call it a Nenshi? A "Miller" would be accurate as well. From what I've been told, Miller was in a similar situation to Soknacki until the final month of the campaign.
So Chow's support is dropping, and Tory's support is only so high because Ford is still in this according to people here. Ford is definitely not getting elected (as someone says, between 10-13% of the vote), so where are all these voters going too?
I don't believe at all Soknacki is truly at 5%. The Sok is rising.
I'm very likely to vote for OC in the end...but what an uninspiring campaign. She seems to be using the same "play it safe" strategy used by Adrian Dix and the NDP in B.C.
Yeah. She has had a mediocre past two weeks and is still in the lead by all accounts. All she needs to do is return to where she was before july and then she should get in. Ford is ruining this race imo. You say a lot of soft Ford support is bleeding, but he's still the most popular of all the candidates. He has a good team, but not enough traction. He should be ahead Ford or not and in any other city he would be.So you are this convinced Olivia Chow will win? I'm not convinced. I don't think Ford will do well at all the polls come October 27th. Around 10% or so is what I'm predicting for him. I think a lot of soft Ford supporters are heading to the Tory camp which is why he is growing in the polls. I think Tory has a good chance of winning, if he plays his cards right. Tory was smart to hire the people he hired for this campaign and the money he is fundraising is fantastic. Tory does have a chance at winning this, whether you like it or not. This is Chow vs Tory.
As for Karen Stintz, I think her time in municipal politics is over, but that doesn't mean she can't be elected to a federal or provincial seat in the not too distant future. She isn't some Ford "lapdog". Karen can bounce back in a different way.
Yeah. She has had a mediocre past two weeks and is still in the lead by all accounts. All she needs to do is return to where she was before july and then she should get in. Ford is ruining this race imo. You say a lot of soft Ford support is bleeding, but he's still the most popular of all the candidates. He has a good team, but not enough traction. He should be ahead Ford or not and in any other city he would be.
So the mayor's race is now a statistical dead heat according to Forum...
Chow 29
Tory 28
Ford 27
We are seeing erosion in Chow support
Ford has static support
Tory coming up the middle?
I think you are going to see a kingmaker come forward in Stintz (6%) throwing her support behind either Tory or Ford...most probably Ford considering she has been selling herself as the female Ford with less controversy...
Soknacki at 5% I think is still in it for the long haul hoping for a "Nenshi"..his voter recognition is still only 66% so he has room to grow and as he becomes more recognized his policy positions will come to the fore forcing the frontrunners to be specific in their positions
Too bad the Star didn't show the demos of the 1063 interviewed...it would sure be nice to know...and secondly does Forum use the Statscan model for "Factors asociated with voting"
Why call it a Nenshi? A "Miller" would be accurate as well. From what I've been told, Miller was in a similar situation to Soknacki until the final month of the campaign.
Last week, Environics asked 225 Toronto residents whom they would like to see as mayor: 38 per cent said Ms. Hall, 20 per cent opted for Mr. Miller, nine per cent backed Mr. Jakobek and 24 per cent were undecided. The poll, which has a margin of error of 6.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20, asked about official candidates only and was done before Mr. Nunziata declared his bid.
Likeability, Tory doesn't have that.Did you mean to say Tory? Ford is the LEAST popular candidate in the race in terms of disapproval rating.
Keep in mind that the people who say they support Ford are now demographics that are the least likely to vote.
Rob Ford has a good campaign team? Every time Doug opens his mouth, he manages to cause a fuss.