2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

[Greg Banks]

East side:

Ward 27 - After a nail-biter against Ken Chan in 2010, KWT should have no problem getting re-elected.

Ward 28 - McConnell handily

Ward 29 - Fragedakis has a low profile on council but she has a solid presence in the riding. She also has the strong Toronto-Danforth NDP machine behind her. Engineer David Andre is her closest competition and started campaigning in June, while nutty former East York councillor and Ford koolaid drinker John Papadakis recently threw his hat in the ring. His website has to be seen to believe it: http://johnpapadakis.ca/Platform.html

Ward 30 - One of the closest races in the city. Liz West is in a rematch against Paula Fletcher where she lost last time by only a few hundred votes. It definitely spooked Fletcher because her recent list of ward accomplishments is bigger than her first two terms combined. The wild card is community organizer Jane Farrow who could poach some left-wing support from Fletcher or steal anti-Fletcher support away from West. West was endorsed by Rob Ford in 2010 which could come back to haunt her.

Ward 31 - Janet Davis in a landslide.

Ward 32 - Councillor McMahon is well liked in the riding and should easily win, despite what lunatic and fellow candidate Dimitri The Lover maintains.

I was going to do my Eastside handicapping tomorrow but it is better as an answer post...I think on the eastside there are 3 or 4 incumbents that have reached their best before date and some just hitting their stride

Ward 27 K Tam-Wong is one just hitting her stride. She'll be a crackerjack in her second term

Ward 28 I think Pam McC should be handing the baton off not running again...It is time to pass it to someone younger with fresher ideas Sean Yilmaz

Ward 29 M Fragedakis another just hitting her stride...Are we looking at the next Budget Chief?

Ward 30 Fletcher should not have bother putting her papers in...it is going to be a race between L West and J Farrow and from what I've be able to discern L West has not made a lot of friends
so as IIRC it was who Adma suggested J Farrow is the one to watch and now I agree (AFUITBS Challenger to Watch X)

Ward 31 While I think J Davis has hit her best before there is no viable sucessor at this point

Ward 32 It was refreshing to see MMM stand up to R Ford and give as good as she got, I really think she is a one termer (even though she said her second term would be her last)... B Graff has some interesting ideas whether they would fly or not is another question but it might be treat having him on Council

Well there is my take on the eastend...we are now up to 18 new councillors for R Ford

 

[christiesplits]

Ward 30 Fletcher should not have bother putting her papers in...it is going to be a race between L West and J Farrow and from what I've be able to discern L West has not made a lot of friends
so as IIRC it was who Adma suggested J Farrow is the one to watch and now I agree (AFUITBS Challenger to Watch X)

I think people are grossly over-estimating Farrow's chances. Outside of queer and public space activists, does anyone know who she is? Her early endorsements are weak and her initial publicity has fizzled.

West sealed her position as the anti-Fletcher candidate last time around. This round she has a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives, including endorsements from former east-end councillor Case Ootes and former local MP Dennis Mills. I don't think she has it in the bag though. A candidate like herself who came so close to toppling an incumbent four years ago should have maintained her presence in the ward. She was no where to be seen in Ward 30 the last four years. Her only community role in the last four years was on the Jackman Public School PTA where she was the lone dissenter in naming a peace garden after Jack Layton.

Fletcher went into 2010 woefully unprepared, with many of the Toronto-Danforth NDP resources going into Fragedakis's Ward 29 campaign. This time around she has a longer list of ward accomplishments like key improvements to Greenwood, Riverdale and Withrow Parks, and no longer holds baggage as a key Miller-ally.

Ward 32 It was refreshing to see MMM stand up to R Ford and give as good as she got, I really think she is a one termer (even though she said her second term would be her last)... B Graff has some interesting ideas whether they would fly or not is another question but it might be treat having him on Council

No way MMM loses. She has a strong connection to the ward and is running against a weak slate of opponents. Despite running as a right-of-centre candidate against Bussin last time around, including being endorsed by John Tory, her voting record has her firmly in the left-of-centre camp.

 

[Greg Banks]

You forget Fletcher carries the Heather Terraces fiasco with her....see TMMIS 2013 AH6.8 and the attachment containing Fletcher's letter.....

 

[PolarDan]

What about North York? 23, 24, 25, 26?

 

[Greg Banks]

What about North York? 23, 24, 25, 26?

Tomorrow OK?
On second thought I'll do it now. Central North Wards 15, 16, 23, 24, 25, 26. We are looking at a couple of stars here, some stale dated and a vacant seat

Ward 15 Is there any way that Josh Colle can lose this seat? I think not.

Ward 16 Stintz's big mistake, she could have the seat for another 20 years. That being said her Ex Asst J P Boutros is the receiver of a gift horse Oct 28 the seat is his...

Ward 23 J Filion endorsed J Tory in hopes that Tory's coattails are long enough to reelect him....Guess what he is wrong David Masouvi will be the new Councillor for 23

Ward 24 Shiner is doing his usual keep people guessing will he or won't he. It isn't going to make a difference time Dan Fox (AFUITBS Challenger to Watch I) is going to take the seat

Ward 25 J Robinson acclaimed as of this date

Ward 26 Dry wit and the ability to control a meeting will only take you so far and never having great strength in Flemingdon or Thorncliffe doesn't help as well as his weak plurality in 2010. For J Parker what seals his fate is Leasiders reaction to his tepid sense of urgency to the tragedy earlier this summer. I think we are looking at another new Councillor John Burnside (ran second in 2010)

There we have it and now we at 22 new Councillors for R Ford....

 

[adma]

I live in Ward 19. Layton has done a good job IMO. He responds quickly to requests and either gets stuff done or tells you why it can't happen. He escalated much-needed traffic lights at the intersection of East Liberty and Strachan for example and then escalated the installation of the advanced green. He had metal bollards put in on a spot on Lake Shore Blvd. where traffic cut across the sidewalk to make random U turns. He kept people informed about progress opening the Bathurst/Fort York intersection even though technically that isn't his ward. He attends many community events and is pretty visible in the ward.

So yes, I'd say he was voted in on name recognition last time, but I think he'll get in on his own merits this time.

And that's just the way his father would have wanted it, i.e. a grassroots workhorse rather than a Justin-esque Golden Boy.

 

[adma]

West sealed her position as the anti-Fletcher candidate last time around. This round she has a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives, including endorsements from former east-end councillor Case Ootes and former local MP Dennis Mills.

Though that's not exactly a "Wynne Liberal" cast--remember that Case Ootes represented *north*-of-the-Danforth; there's a real psychological political divide there. And while Dennis Mills in his MP days was a master of retail politics that'd make Rob Ford blush, at this point and in this kind of ward, that might be more liability than plus. Sort of like how the hoary remains of the Chris K-K machine weren't enough to allow Ted Lojko to prevail in 2006 against a whole slew of viable leftish-NDPish standard-bearers (including the ultimate victor, Gord Perks).

 

[r937]

Ward 26 Dry wit and the ability to control a meeting will only take you so far and never having great strength in Flemingdon or Thorncliffe doesn't help as well as his weak plurality in 2010. For J Parker what seals his fate is Leasiders reaction to his tepid sense of urgency to the tragedy earlier this summer. I think we are looking at another new Councillor John Burnside (ran second in 2010)

as well, Parker wants to extend Redway Road through Crothers Woods to Bayview, hoping to alleviate Leaside traffic...

no idea how he's currently doing compared to Burnside, but David Sparrow has my vote

 

[Greg Banks]

I'll finish up today on my totally unscientific and subjective review of Council races...We'll start with the Northeast corner... Wards 33, 34, 39, 40, 41, 42

Ward 33 Is there really a race here, I think....S Carroll

Ward 34 There are quite a few out there who consider this an AB ward...DWM in 2010 had a tooth in nail fight to be reelected, that won't happen this time, it may still be tooth in nail however Mary Hynes (AFUITBS Challenger to Watch VII) will take that seat

Ward 39 There will be a new Councillor from this ward as MDG is running for Tustee...nevertheless this is still an AB ward (Karygiannis) problem there isn't much talent to pick from...so dartboarding it I come with Patricia Sinclair

Ward 40 Here is another stale date Council member nevertheless Norm Kelly will be returned (hopefully for the last time)

Ward 41 Chin Lee has neither excelled or disappointed, he won the seat with a large majority in 2010, I see no reason it won't happen again although probably a smaller mandate

Ward 42 Here is a ward the combines both best before and AB...R Cho should hopefully poll last in this election...did he collect his salary during the provincial campaign, there is some suggestion he did after committing to Korean news outlets he wouldn't.....This is another shot in ths dark but how about Somu Mondal taking the seat

And now for the R Ford new Councillor total 25...

 

[Greg Banks]

Here is my final installment Southeast....Wards 35, 36, 37, 38, 43, 44

Ward 35 Michelle Berardinetti...the competition seems weak and for the mostpart way to far left

Ward 36 The sitting Councillor had a very weak plurality in 2010 (25.6%) and he hasn't shown much else other than loyalty to R Ford (and a trip to Austin) one term is enough....Masihullah Moebgaza should take it given his down to earth platform, I think he has a future...

Ward 37 Not much to say about the best allround Councillor....Michael Thompson (too bad he didn't take a run at mayor)

Ward 38 It is time for a change, GDB had run his string out however I don't have a handle on who might be ready to take the seat....HELP....

Ward 43 Paul Ainslie should be returned given his competition

Ward 44 Finally to the end....and we have in my opinion the worst sitting City Councillor in this Ward...This is the ultimate Anybody But, Best Before, where are you, why are you even here Ward Councillor in Toronto. I'm speaking of a Councillor who hasn't registered yet, fingers crossed will not register and I refuse to name him....Suffice to say Jennifer McKelvie with all her qualifactions should be the next Councillor (AFUITBS Challenger to Watch VI)

And the final tally for the R Ford new Councillor quest stands at 28

Oh just to let you know I will grudgingly revise the Etobicoke Wards from my fantasy slate something resembling reality today or tomorrow....

 

[NorthYorkEd]

Ward 23 J Filion endorsed J Tory in hopes that Tory's coattails are long enough to reelect him....Guess what he is wrong David Masouvi will be the new Councillor for 23

Almost everyone I've spoken to says that they like John, he has been a decent enough councillor, but that it might be time for a change.

All I know of Mousavi (aside from the typical political propaganda) is that the pics on his brochure and website make him look smug and contemptuous (I'm sure he is a fine gentleman).

 

[nfitz]

Ward 32 It was refreshing to see MMM stand up to R Ford and give as good as she got, I really think she is a one termer (even though she said her second term would be her last)... B Graff has some interesting ideas whether they would fly or not is another question but it might be treat having him on Council

Living the ward, MMM is everywhere. I'm not sure she's my first choice. I've never even heard of B Graff ... whoever that is. They don't have much of a profile then in my part of the riding. I've even had that lunatic "Dimitri" psychopath at my door before ... (and if your reading, the threat about the restraining order still stands).

 

[christiesplits]

Last election five incumbents who ran for re-election got turfed: Cliff Jenkins, Bill Saundercook, Suzan Hall, Sandra Bussin and Adrian Heaps. In 2006 only one incumbent lost. And in 2003 only four incumbents lost.

Incumbency is a huge advantage. The odds of John Filion and David Shiner returning are in their favour.

 

[Greg Banks]

Last election five incumbents who ran for re-election got turfed: Cliff Jenkins, Bill Saundercook, Suzan Hall, Sandra Bussin and Adrian Heaps. In 2006 only one incumbent lost. And in 2003 only four incumbents lost.

Incumbency is a huge advantage. The odds of John Filion and David Shiner returning are in their favour.

You have to remember Shiner has the sweetheart apartment rental not even in the Ward he represents and is registered as a Federal lobbyist...
Does Filion see writing on the wall and with his endorsement of Tory (out of the blue). Will it be enough to get him returned?
And you have to remember to Yonge north development is just staring to burgeon whoever is up there is going to have to be quick on feet to make sure growth is controlled but not stiffled....

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Many incumbents are associated with Rob Ford however. That could be their downfall this election.