From the Post:
Poll reveals 'horse race'
Miller leads, but Pitfield has serious support
Challenger Jane Pitfield is gaining on...
James Cowan, National Post
Published: Friday, September 29, 2006
TORONTO - Mayoral candidate Jane Pitfield poses a legitimate threat to Mayor David Miller in November's municipal election, according to a poll released today.
The Ipsos Reid survey, conducted on behalf of the National Post, Global News and CFRB, shows 55% of decided voters intend to support Mr. Miller compared with 40% for Ms. Pitfield. The contest becomes even closer among decided voters who are "absolutely certain" to cast a ballot, with 51% backing the Mayor versus 46% for Ms. Pitfield.
The results suggest the mayoral race will be much tighter than many people expected, according to John Wright, senior vice-president of Ipsos Reid.
"This is a real horse race," Mr. Wright said. "They are starting even at the gate."
Today is the last day to register as a candidate in the Nov. 13 election. Stephen LeDrew, a former federal Liberal party president, was yesterday rallying a team to mount his own last-minute campaign. While he will make a final decision today, he was poised last night to enter the race.
With no other high-profile contenders until now, Ms. Pitfield has garnered support because of a "rising crest of disappointment" with the current Mayor, Mr. Wright said.
The number of people who believe Mr. Miller deserves to be re-elected has fallen over the past year. Last October, Ipsos Reid found 69% of people believe the Mayor had earned a second term, compared with 57% today.
And again, the numbers are closer among Torontonians "certain" to vote: 51% said Mr. Miller deserved to be re-elected, while 49% said he did not.
Mr. Wright said due to the typically low turnout for municipal elections, the figures for "certain" voters -- which in this case represent 62% of Torontonians -- are more significant than those for decided voters, many of whom will not bother to cast a ballot.
The election will be a referendum on Mr. Miller's lacklustre first term, according to Mr. Wright.
"A candidate with the stature and potential of David Miller should be much higher in the polls," he said. "There is a lot of disappointment. The city does not feel like it is moving ahead."
Mr. Wright said the Mayor's faltering popularity largely accounts for Ms. Pitfield's strong showing.
The pollster said Ms. Pitfield could be even further ahead in the polls if she had a stronger campaign team and made fewer gaffes. The councillor, who represents Don Valley West, has failed to capitalize on several controversial decisions made by the mayor over the past year, Mr. Wright said.
"We've got talks about a garbage dump behind closed doors, we've got sleight-of-hand for a raise for councillors that slipped through, we've got a sole-source contract for Bombardier -- with those things, a great candidate could shellac Miller."
With 43% of voters still undecided and six weeks left in the campaign, Mr. Wright said the Mayor must act now to avoid slipping further.
"He's got to define the three or four things this campaign should be about, because right now the issues are defining him," Mr. Wright said. "He's got all the pieces that he could do well, he's just not using them."
Mr. Wright added Mr. Miller maintains a slight edge over Ms. Pitfield because of the Mayor's popularity among homeowners, the demographic group most likely to vote. Fifty-one percent of homeowners surveyed said they would support Mr. Miller while 43% said they backed Ms. Pitfield. "He was eight per cent ahead of John Tory amongst homeowners in the last race and it carried him over the hump," Mr. Wright said. "He's in the same position now."
Finding a solution to Toronto's trash woes is the top priority for most voters, the survey found. Thirty-one per cent of respondents identified garbage as the an important issue for the next mayor to address, followed by public transit at 29%, crime at 27%, poverty at 14% and taxes at 15%.
Mr. Miller said the city under his leadership is "addressing all those issues. We need to do more, but I think we've laid a very good foundation in this term of council," he said.
Ms. Pitfield alleged the mayor has lost touch with the electorate. "I think that it's really important to be in touch with how people on the street feel and I've made a big effort to do that," she said.
A total of 804 Torontonians were polled over the Internet between Sept. 21 and 26. The results are considered accurate within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
jcowan@nationalpost.com
© National Post 2006
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