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2004 Martin budget (Liberals appearing wobbly on promises)

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Liberals appearing wobbly on promises

By MURRAY CAMPBELL

UPDATED AT 11:18 AM EST &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2004

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Winners and losers alike, politicians have always taken comfort in the election-night maxim that "the voters have spoken." Sometimes, however, the trouble is in figuring out what they said.

Take Dalton McGuinty, for example. His Liberals won 72 seats last October after waging a campaign that promised to revitalize social programs while also balancing the budget and holding the line on taxes. It was a three-cornered stool and any suggestion that one of the legs was weaker than the others was met with self-confident ridicule by Mr. McGuinty. He stared out of our television sets, cited the endorsements of Bay Street economists and said he could pay for $5.9-billion in new investments by rolling back Progressive Conservative tax cuts and eliminating waste.

A couple of the legs are looking wobbly now. The Liberals discovered a budget deficit of nearly twice what they had been counting on and recently they've been sending out the artillery to soften voters up for much-delayed reinvestment in services and perhaps even the end to other programs. There's talk of higher user fees but the government is holding firm on its pledge not to raise corporate or personal income taxes.

Finance Minister Greg Sorbara affirmed this yesterday when he inaugurated the budget-making season by appearing before the legislature's finance committee. "Ontarians know we can only live well by living within our means and they have told us to make that happen."

It's a nice phrase, "living within our means," because it denotes responsibility and maturity. But what does it mean? You and I, for example, face a choice of balancing our household budgets by either earning more or spending less. The Finance Minister faces the same choice but he's determined that he will not pursue the traditional avenues of bringing in revenue.

"We are not going to be raising personal income tax as a way of solving the deficit problems that we inherited," he said. It's an unequivocal statement and it reflects what John Williamson of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation believes was the message of the Oct. 2 election. "Voters did not elect a government to raise their taxes," he said.

It's not the only view, of course. New Democrat Leader Howard Hampton, perhaps not surprisingly, believes voters "wanted to see reinvestment in public services." And Hugh Mackenzie of the left-leaning Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives argues the demand for renewed government programs could be met, even in the context of the projected $5.6-billion deficit, by a 2 per cent increase in personal income tax rates that would cost an average taxpayer just $2.50 a week.

You don't have to buy either one of these opposing points of view, of course. It's enough to simply watch as the government floats trial balloons about selling government assets, gutting the seniors' drug program and requiring individual premiums for health care. The Liberals made, by one estimate, 231 campaign promises and they're reaping heaps of trouble for breaking -- or appearing to break -- a great number of those. And yet they won't irk Mr. Williamson by raising taxes.

Well, not all taxes anyway. Mr. Sorbara talks more and more these days about the possibilities of "non-tax revenue" -- fee hikes for everything from drivers' licences to provincial park permits. He raised yesterday the possibility of an assault on $1-billion of grants and tax credits to businesses and economic sectors handed out by governments for a generation or more. None of these moves would, strictly speaking, violate the pledge made to the taxpayers' federation but Mr. Williamson is taking a dim view anyway. More intriguing than any of this, however, is the prospect that the government will abandon its quest to balance next year's budget. Liberals are talking about running a deficit and accepting the punishment that the balanced-budget law requires. Mr. Sorbara cast a glance at that bolt hole yesterday. "If the choice is between a 25 per cent pay cut for ministers and decimating programs just to achieve that objective, my choice is for the pay cut," he said.

mcampbell@globeandmail.ca



© 2004 Bell Globemedia Publishing Inc. All Rights Reserved.
 
Re: Tax plan criticized

&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
Jan. 27, 2004. 09:59 AM
Tax plan criticized

ROBERT BENZIE
QUEEN'S PARK BUREAU

The Ontario government is poised to eliminate scores of tax credits to industry and corporations to avoid a budget deficit, Finance Minister Greg Sorbara says.

Along with scrapping between $800 million and $1.2 billion in tax loopholes, Sorbara left open the possibility to reintroduce OHIP premiums paid by Ontario residents to help fund the medicare system.

That prompted charges from critics of looming tax hikes.

"There are a number of so-called tax expenditures in the system — grants and credits to businesses and individuals — that we'll be looking at to see if they still make sense or if they're the most efficient way of achieving the public objective," Sorbara said yesterday.

"I don't want to get into specific credits, but you know what they are. Film and television (production) is one of the ones that is most top of mind. But there's wide, wide variety of them," he said.

They include tax credits for mining, computer animation, book publishing and sound recording.

Sorbara, who appeared before the standing committee on finance and economic affairs, said the Liberals are looking at cancelling the exemption for small businesses from paying the employer health tax.

Having inherited a $5.6 billion projected shortfall from the previous Conservative government, the Liberals are scrambling to avert another deficit in the May budget.

"We are undertaking a complete re-assessment of how we do things as well as what things we do. This is going to mean a significant redesigning of government," he said. "We are going to examine government programs against the priorities that we ran on and that Ontarians voted for. That includes an array of programs that are provided through the tax system."

Sorbara, who has already found $3 billion in additional revenue by cancelling Tory tax cuts and hiking other levies, emphasized there would be no "slash-and-burn quick fixes."

He also said it was possible the Liberals would run a deficit in the coming fiscal year despite the fact it would violate balanced-budget legislation, which would mean cash penalties for cabinet ministers.

"If the choice is between a 25 per cent pay cut for ministers and decimating programs just to achieve that objective, my choice is for the pay cuts. My colleagues would agree with me on that," he said.

But such a cut, which only affects the additional stipend MPPs receive for being in cabinet, would net the government an additional $215,000, according to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

"We are undertaking a complete re-assessment of how we do things.'

Greg Sorbara,

finance minister

Before crossing that bridge, Sorbara said the government would explore increasing "non-tax revenues."

"Non-tax revenues are everything from better utilization of assets, changes to fees structures, any kind of revenue that doesn't require an increase in personal or corporate income tax," he said.

"An OHIP premium is a non-tax revenue, an increase in driver's licence fees is a non-tax revenue."

OHIP premiums — initially set at $22 a month for families and $11 a month for singles when the medicare plan was started in 1972 — were abolished by the former Liberal government of David Peterson in 1989.

Monthly Ontario Health Insurance Plan premiums were replaced by a higher provincial income tax and a payroll tax for all employers.

"A user fee or a participation fee for medicare ... is very much what they're looking for. It'll be a tax on any ... adult who participates in the medicare system," NDP leader Howard Hampton said. "Those all amount to unfair tax increases.

"Increasing prescription medicine fees for seniors or increasing other fees for students is ... quite regressive," Hampton said. "It hits those with the lowest incomes the hardest and that sounds very much what the new government is considering."

Conservative finance critic John Baird said Sorbara's proposed changes could cause economic tumult.

"We brought forward tax credits for the mining sector to make Ontario one of the best jurisdictions in the world to mine. That means jobs in Northern Ontario," said Baird.

"It's about greasing the skids for a big tax increase," he said. "They can call it a health levy, they can call it a medicare user fee, they can call it an OHIP premium ... one (way) or another they're going to find a way to squeeze people."

Canadian Taxpayers Federation Ontario director John Williamson expressed surprise at Sorbara's plans.

"It's a narrow interpretation for the finance minister to say he can repeal these (tax credits) and still be in compliance with the Taxpayer Protection Act," he said.

Hugh Mackenzie of the Centre for Policy Alternatives said the loopholes should be closed and many of the credits replaced with grants to save up to $1.1 billion.

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Federal Tax Magic

I'm going to make a prediction about the February budget. I predict that:

a) the surplus will be healthier than expected. Probably about $3 billion, all of which will be committed to debt reduction.

b) Paul Martin will manage to find $8 billion with which to maintain his health care promises and make a start on his New Deal for the Cities. The measures he'll give to the cities, AS A START will include:
- 100% exemption from GST payments (for the TTC alone, this saves them $12 million per year, or a quarter of their worrysome $48 million 2004 operating deficit)
- Points transfers from the GST or the gas tax, netting the cities just under a billion. The City of Toronto itself will get around $200 million.

How can he do this? Paul Wells, editor of MacLeans magazine, builds an interesting case. You have the Western Economic Development Fund and the Atlantic Development Economic Fund, programs which used to be popular, but now don't do much.

You have, in the Liberal Caucus, Scott Brison (a popular Atlantic Canadian) and Reg Alcock (a popular Western Canadian) who have advocated cutting these programs and redistributing the tax funds for years.

The two programs together cost the Federal Government -- you guessed it -- billions of dollars. Likewise, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation estimate that other "Corporate Welfare" programs cost citizens $4 billion. The Conservatives have been following the CTF's lead in campaigning for these programs to be cut.

So, Martin cuts these programs and has money to shower onto Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax (a good national distribution). He eliminates one more stick that the Conservatives can beat him with, AND he wipes the smile off of Layton's face by appearing to stand up to corporations (who, not coincidentally, just came into a $4 Billion tax cut).

I'll say one thing about Martin: he is a political chessmaster. The moves he is making with the Arar inquiry and the same-sex question removes these two controversial issues from the election campaign, and he is methodically eliminating the ground on which the Conservatives can fight him on. I think he may even be bucking to have Layton face him across the commons floor after the April election.

It's all cynical, and it's all manipulative, but I can't help but admire the sheer brilliance of it. Harper and Layton are simply out of their league.

And, if this does go some way to solving the cities' problems, some good will come of it.

...James
 
Re: Federal Tax Magic

I hope you are correct.
Martin has an oppertunity -- and he's clever enough to take it - to be a right wing renegade in power! :tup: People will be voting Conservative and they wown't even know it! :)
 
Re: Federal Tax Magic

My worry with that is that if Martin gives GST exemption and a small transfer of sales or excise taxes, everyone will be satisfied and the push behind the "new deal" will diminish significantly. People are utterly unaware that a great deal of real change is needed. Tossing a few crumbs at the cities is just another band-aid, though clearly the best we've seen so far.
 
Re: Federal Tax Magic

I think most people know that small tidbits such as GST rebates are just that: small tidbits. Everybody has been going on about the structural problem of cities. However, such a maneouver from Martin's part in the February budget would be the clearest signal yet that he hopes to focus on this issue after the next election.

Remember how interested Chretien was in building his legacy? Martin's almost as old as Chretien; he also has to be thinking about his legacy. Fixing the cities would be one hell of a legacy.

...James
 

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