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  1. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I too last year did not buy any equity but rather sold partial positions in 2 holdings (I sold approximately 6% of my total stock holdings.) Both residual holdings are up since then but I remember what I have learned from the past: No one ever went wrong taking a profit. Unfortunately, one...
  2. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    If I had to hazard a guess, and it is only a guess....when interest rates finally start back up the cycle will be a down cycle for a few years on real estate and probably after the down a prolonged flat period. I suspect the flat period will be longer than a "normal 7 year cycle". Remember...
  3. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Condo prices in GTA likely to fall about 8% over next 2 years: report Add to ... TARA PERKINS - REAL ESTATE REPORTER The Globe and Mail Published Monday, Mar. 10 2014, 10:37 AM EDT Last updated Monday, Mar. 10 2014, 11:03 AM EDT 3 comments Condo prices in the Greater Toronto Area will...
  4. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    And when may ask is that happening?
  5. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I think that is what everyone is talking about on this site. We all know real estate is cyclical. Figuring out when the end of the cycle occurs and the beginning of the next cycle happens and what the down amount is....that is the million dollar question. Maybe in 2 years in goes down....for...
  6. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    cdr I appreciate your comment but I am not sure the collapse there follows here. Their stock market and property market became severely overvalued. Both collapsed. They had massive debt( granted held mainly by the Japanese ), an older population and entered a deflationary decade or 2 even...
  7. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Eventually there will be some correction. Whether it is a slowdown or zero growth for a few years (soft landing) or a harder one remains to be seen. Real estate is cyclical so eventually someone will be right. With the above in mind, most things tend to regress to the norm and I think most...
  8. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    See my post 8313 above. Clarification issued by the Globe and Mail. They are talking about a 10-20% decrease, allowing for 2%-4% inflation they suggest nominal FLAT to 10% DOWN.
  9. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Again it was the commentary by Paul Bagnell. If we assume 10% decline that would be 20% or 4% average/year over the next 5 years. A lot of forecasters are expecting inflation to pick up next year but who knows? Again, I apologize as it was a "phrase" from the BNN commentator. From the...
  10. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    It was on the noon show... It was their commentary and Paul Bagnell stated that Pimco issued a clarification. I am not sure where it would be. I don't know if one can go back and see this anywhere written or if it will be rebroadcast.
  11. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    On BNN they clarified this over the lunch hour: Pimco issued a clarification stating that they see a 30% decline not allowing for inflation: They are expecting a 5 to 10% decline over the next 5 years whereas one would normally expect inflation increases over this time. That is quite different...
  12. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    ^^^^ CNTower In his post above CNTower is absolutely correct. When I did the numbers, my conclusion was that at $400/sq.ft. you made money, $450 was the max/sq.ft. that made sense to me. At $500/sq.ft., I could not justify the numbers anymore. Best case I figured was about 2.5%...
  13. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Thanks for the offer condo George. I would feel awkward in either of those 2 vehicles...( I am a simple person from simple roots):D I will continue to admire those in the position to drive them from afar. I also admire success so congratulations. However, that said, thank you for your...
  14. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Are you talking new or resale? Also, if new, do you think this will be across the price range or will the high end continue to suffer?
  15. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I would not quite be that harsh. However you are probably right that the developer is looking at the 1.7% I quoted as just part of his marketing budget. I was under the impression the building was not selling that badly. With Ryerson nearby, I suspect the student rental idea will apply to a...
  16. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Think about it...that is not a lot of money. If rents are now $3 (500 sq.ft. will get at least $1500 and probably $1600/month in the present market) and let say they go down to $2.50. That is 50 cents x 500 sq.ft. or $250 x24 months or$6K. Assuming they are selling at $700/sq.ft. or $350K for...
  17. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    [/B] I would take this with a bit of a grain of salt. Clearly with Freddie Mac and Fanny May there were problems but it is an ideological question rather than an economic one. In North America, home ownership has been promoted by various governments. Less so in Europe though I believe some...
  18. I

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Hi daveto. welcome back. Interestingly in the National Post this morning on line there is an article about the HELOC loans in the US coming home to roost shortly. These are interest only often in the first 10 years and the payments may "triple" as people have to pay interest and loans...
  19. I

    Toronto Living Shangri-La Toronto | 214.57m | 66s | Westbank | James Cheng

    If I was staying at the hotel, I wouldn't be too impressed. this I believe is the 3rd piece of glass now. At least 2 would be from balconies. Clearly a problem with the type of glass. The first may have been a defective piece but with 3 now it is stretching the imagination a bit to think it...

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