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I wouldn't use mayoral results to jump to conclusions about Amber Morley's future--after all, Lib/Bailao voters aren't necessarily *averse* to having a progressive councillor, even if they didn't vote for their mayoral counterpart. Mayoral results aren't a referendum on councillors (except...

And another thing when it comes to Furey: he's probably the reason why Chris Sky did 1/3 as well as Faith Goldy did in '18.

And actually, one other thing to keep in mind is that going by the scale of margin and the progress of the results over the evening, I wouldn't be surprised if Ana was already a clear 2nd in the advance polling--that is, before the Tory endorsement and everything; IOW all those Mainstreet polls...

By that barometer, Nathan Phillips was Toronto's first racialized mayor.

Re "slightly closer": in a strict 2-way contest, Chow got 53.39% vs Bailao. Miller got 53.22% vs Tory. So one might argue that according to *that* barometer, she actually did a hair *better*. (And not only that, but Lastman got 52.82% vs Hall in a 2-way in '97. Tory vs Ford in '14: 54.42%.)...

Municipally speaking, it always was. Remember that Doug Holyday was its last pre-amalgamation mayor, and before him were snoozers like Bruce Sinclair & Dennis Flynn. It's the kind of place where Orange County-style "tax revolts" were likeliest to happen. It's a place where old crabs like...

A different kind of ouch: 4.7% in his home ward--Perruzza got 10.7% in *his* home ward...

If one accounts for "Bailao left-moderates" among the progressive-adjacent, it might already be latently there-ish. Eg-Law is too "Don Valley West West" in the E, and too "York South-Weston East" in the W. (And I also wonder how much certain voting demos--in this case, Jewish & Italian--make a...

Knowing how the Layton-Chow household operated and operates, I'd imagine it'd be more about healing divides than Ford-style settling of scores.

(1) because all the other pollsters were underpolling her (2) because that was before the critical John Tory endorsement (3) because push polling and strategic finagling to make a certain desired result happen, works. Thanks, Mr. Kouvalis; now, as I was braced for, Team AnaQuito can claim...

And now the OliviAna margin's verging on 5 points--which isn't much below Miller vs Tory in '03 (and because their respective shares are lower than those of Miller & Tory, it practically sizes up the same)

Yeah, I'm hearing CP24 pundits talking about Olivia "falling short"--she *didn't*, really; it's just that Bailao "fell long"...

Art Eggleton won by less than a point over John Sewell in '80.

I'm also definitely getting a vibe of advance polling making a difference. (Particularly given how individual ward results shifted Chow-ward)

And Gong has less than half a point, behind Perruzza. (And what's with Lyall Sanders? How did he hold *that* kind of vote?)

101 people and a dog. Now, where have I heard something like that before...

I'd wonder if Gong's team is inane enough to wave his signs in front of polling stations as a GOTV move. (Come to think of it, at Pride yesterday, it almost seems like I saw him arguing with the cops while paused at Church & Bloor--which makes me wonder if Team Gong "crashed the parade"...)

Speaking of Gong,, I was joking about the likelihood being something straight out of a BlahTO parody post--but he did, he really did have a Pride parade float and entourage. He's truly the Monkey Christ of this election race, in the "no publicity is bad publicity" worst way possible (i.e. in...

Re the bump: "bland works"--it's how Eggleton won vs Sewell in '80. And better "bland and uninspiring" as an antidote to vewwy vewwy scawwy opponents. But re bland *not* working: it's why she's still way behind Chow.

New Mainstreet: Chow 34, Bailao 25, Saunders 11, Furey 10, Matlow 7, Hunter 5, Brown 2, Bradford a Jakobek-esque 1. So Mainstreet's digging in on Bailao's behalf--yet Chow's margin increased 1 point. And new Forum Research: Chow 29 (down 3), Bailao 20 (up 7), Saunders 15, Furey 11, Matlow 8...