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That was true of Jennifer Keesmaat too, though KWT actually has electoral experience and the dynamics obviously change in an open race (the last race was really only a semi-competitive one).

Tory has very skillfully navigated the core/suburb divide.

Obviously whether Tory runs for a third term greatly influences the dynamic. Progressives: The last time "the left" won the mayor's office was in 2006. In the last two elections, the anointed "progressive" candidate received around 23% of the vote. They haven't really been able to break out...

Hence the phenomenon of the strategic voting in inner Toronto ridings where the Tories are a non-factor. But at this point I think a lot of one-time strategic voters actually like Justin Trudeau's Liberals.

Is there a "right riding" for the Greens in Toronto?

Was Annamie Paul's run a game-changer in Toronto Centre? Will it vote dramatically differently than Spadina-Fort York or University-Rosedale with the Green leader running there? Will NDP voters swing Green to defeat a Liberal? I noticed in the poll by polls she did very well in high turnout...

From what I've heard, Andrew Cash was considering another run, but withdrew. But yeah Davenport is probably the closest riding to an NDP seat nowadays: young, creative and lacking the significant upper middle class swaths found in other Toronto ridings. One problem is that the NDP and...

Probably around 50%. In addition to the PC/Reform split in the 90s that benefitted the Liberals , there's also been a "sorting" of electorates with metropolitan areas trending left and rural areas trending right.

The federal Liberals under Justin Trudeau have won all 25 seats in the City of Toronto in two elections. Will this happen again, or will Toronto have at least one non-Liberal MP (maybe Davenport going orange or something)?

Not sure about that. NDP vote was really pushed into the eastern fringe of Leslieville. Around Carlaw it's very gentrified. There seems to be a bit more of an income mix in the west end, Parkdale most obviously but also Bloor-Dufferin.

There's a distinction to be made between younger more "edgy" early gentrifiers (more NDP) and the more established professional class (more Liberal/Green).

What about Jagmeet Singh? He lacks policy depth to really appeal to the intelligentsia and highly educated professionals, not does he speak to the traditional unionist base. No wonder he is such a disastrous leader.

Greens did quite well in the Annex/Harbord Village/Seaton Village, in double digit territory. Tim Grant was a strong candidate (and former HVRA president) with strong community roots and he appealed a lot to the traditional Annex-y set. BTW I don't see the Green vs. NDP divide as "hip...

Re: Danforth, the NDP vote likely inflated there in past federal elections due to the Layton legacy. This was probably the first election where Layton was not a factor, either directly on the ballot or his memory. At the municipal level it is less progressive than Davenport, Parkdale and even...

Incidentally I wonder if the condo growth of the West Queen West Triangle did Andrew Cash in.

Such a riding would be less of a monstrosity than University-Rosedale from the "community of interest" perspective.

I don't think the NDP would have won even in a more ideal southern Davenport + Parkdale riding (i.e. the old wards 14 and 18).

York Region seems to be trending more Conservative compared to the rest of 905 (i.e. in the 40%-ish range rather than the Mississauga/Brampton/Ajax type blowouts).

Really poor showing for the NDP in Parkdale-High Park and Danforth. And they've been driven out of the Annex/Seaton Village as well.

It's important to note that Orthodox Jews couldn't vote on Election day.