Russian-Ukrainian War (2022- )

[Full Metal Junkie]

There was a huge shakeup in the Ukrainian government over the last month or so with a number of prominent political appointments. Two of them look particularly promising.

New minister of defense Fedorov:

Ukraine’s tech prodigy becomes new minister of defense

Mykhailo Fedorov aims to “stop the enemy by force” with a top priority being to halt Russia’s air attacks.

www.politico.eu

New executive advisor to the defense minister Sternenko:

https://kyivindependent.com/prominent-ukrainian-activist-tapped-to-advise-defense-minister-on-front-line-drone-combat/

This is Ukraine tapping into its young and brightest talent. Both are in their early 30s and both have proven to be exceptionally competent is their previous endeavors.

Fedorov is said to possess silicone-valley-esque entrepreneurial spirit. He was responsible for the digital transformation of the Ukrainian government services up until the MoD appointment. I've only heard raving reviews about the Ukrainian Diya platform he built - recent Ukrainian immigrants to Canada are joking that Canadian government services are 19th century by comparison.

Sternenko has proven himself invaluable in fundraising, crowdfunding and organizing logistics for drone deliveries to frontline units. He's very deeply involved with modern drone warfare advancements.

Together they have a plan - a technological quantum leap in drone warfare. They announced a number of ambitious projects:
- AI-assisted drone interceptors
- Full network integration of drone forces into a single platform
- A centralized command and control center tapping into the above integrated network
- An ambitious new target of 50,000 dead Russians per month

Speaking of ambitious targets:

Magyar's plan discussed in this article is being swiftly put into action. Magyar has recently kicked off a recruitment campaign aimed at doubling the drone forces. If and when he succeeds, Russian unrecoverable losses should get up to that magic 35K per month, making the attrition unsustainable.

Well, December 2025 was the first time UAF reported hitting that magic $35K/month casualty target (in this case 35K dead and wounded combined). 12,000 of those were inflicted by the Unmanned Systems Forces (i.e. drone forces), so there is video proof of every single one of those. UAF claims they have documented proof for the rest of the 35K casualties too, though that's just a claim.

Regardless, good on them to finally outpace Russian recruitment efforts with inflicted casualties. Good start if that's true. I just love that their new MoD looked at this success and said "we can do a lot better".

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Another first in the history of modern warfare - Russia has deployed a battle penguin.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2015788911948100082

 

[nightstreak]

I don't see Viktor Orban remaining as PM through April and quite honestly that's a good thing. Hungary was much better in and around 2006 when it was joining the EU. They are a small country but they need to become more integrated with Europe if they want to flourish.

I want to believe this is true but Orban has become so entrenched because he gets to set the rules aspiring competitors have to play by, can move the squares on the chessboard at will and even if defeated will probably declare himself the winner with Putin’s backing.

The shape of the war in Ukraine would certainly change with a more unified Europe and a weakened Putin but that’s precisely why Putin will move mountains to ensure he doesn’t lose ground with his puppets.

Please share some of your optimism. I could use it.

 

[Richard White]

I want to believe this is true but Orban has become so entrenched because he gets to set the rules aspiring competitors have to play by, can move the squares on the chessboard at will and even if defeated will probably declare himself the winner with Putin’s backing.

He did but the opposition became unified somewhat last year once a major player came onto the field with the Tisza Party.

As I said before, his key to victory was controlling the state media in small villages where internet and newspapers were not as prevalent. There were enough of those small villages to swing the votes his way.

Unfortunately, Peter Magyar his opponent has been travelling across Hungary to all these small settlements and villages holding rallies and talking to people. Now that people know he exists and the things he stands for, he is giving Orban a run for his money.

Alot of the 50 year olds don't like him because they are somewhat tech saavy and know better but the much older generation loves him because they know the Orban that stood up to Communism in 1989.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Please share some of your optimism. I could use it.

If public opinion polling is anything to go by, there is room for cautious optimism. Tisza Party has enjoyed a healthy lead for a better part of a year now. Fingers crossed they don't nosedive right before the election. Then again, I don't know nearly enough about the robustness and fairness of the Hungarian electoral system to know how likely such public opinion polling is to translate to how the election is called.

source

 

[Richard White]

If public opinion polling are anything to go by, there is room for cautious optimism. Tisza Party has enjoyed a healthy lead for a better part of a year now. Fingers crossed they don't nosedive right before the election. Then again, I don't know nearly enough about the robustness and fairness of the Hungarian electoral system to know how likely such public opinion polling is to translate to how the election is called.

View attachment 712373
source

The polling is only as reliable as to where it was taken from.

Index and some independent outlets are fine but if they are from the state adjacent outlets it would not be so reliable.

I have alot of family over there across the country and was there last year. The sense I got is that Orban is losing his grip on power, that people are getting tired of his ties to Russia and venture away from Europe.

 

[nightstreak]

The biggest worry is that this is Belarus all over again. Lukashenko kept a thin veil of popular democratic choice (and I do mean thin) that was just barely enough for plausible deniability but once the people voted him out and the election results were undeniable, Putin cut through the remaining veil and Belarus became an overt Russian backed territory with a puppet under Putin’s control and Russian forces active within its borders to tamp down popular revolt.

Putin could not afford to lose Belarus and he can’t afford to lose Hungary which along with Slovakia are flanking Ukraine from the west — which is incidentally why weakening or eliminating NATO via Trump would give him access to Poland, completely surrounding Ukraine.

The cards could start to fall if Orbán is not only defeated but in fact removed from power. Which is why I don’t think defeating Orbán electorally is going to be enough.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The biggest worry is that this is Belarus all over again. Lukashenko kept a thin veil of popular democratic choice (and I do mean thin) that was just barely enough for plausible deniability but once the people voted him out and the election results were undeniable, Putin cut through the remaining veil and Belarus became an overt Russian backed territory with a puppet under Putin’s control and Russian forces active within its borders to tamp down popular revolt.

Putin could not afford to lose Belarus and he can’t afford to lose Hungary which along with Slovakia are flanking Ukraine from the west — which is incidentally why weakening or eliminating NATO via Trump would give him access to Poland, completely surrounding Ukraine.

The cards could start to fall if Orbán is not only defeated but in fact removed from power. Which is why I don’t think defeating Orbán electorally is going to be enough.

There's no overland way for Russian troops to get to Hungary. That's why taking Ukraine would have been so important. NATO would intervene in Hungary.

 

[Richard White]

There's no overland way for Russian troops to get to Hungary. That's why taking Ukraine would have been so important. NATO would intervene in Hungary.

There is actually. They can go through Ukraine.

 

[Admiral Beez]

There is actually. They can go through Ukraine.

That's why I said above, "That's why taking Ukraine would have been so important." But as today's map showing the frontline shows, clearly Russia cannot reach the Ukraine-Hungarian border.

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.

storymaps.arcgis.com

 

[Richard White]

That's why I said above, "That's why taking Ukraine would have been so important." But clearly Russia cannot reach the Ukraine-Hungarian border.

I honestly hope they don't. I would rather not be conscripted.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I honestly hope they don't.

Of course, but it's hardly a realistic concern. See the map I posted above, and here. It's over 1,500 kms from the front line at Zaporizhzhia to Budapest. Between early November 2025 and early January 2026, Russian forces advanced roughly 18.5 kilometers, at an average pace of 297 meters per day. At that rate it would take over five thousand days (14 years) to reach Budapest. I think your homeland is safe.

 

[nightstreak]

There's no overland way for Russian troops to get to Hungary. That's why taking Ukraine would have been so important. NATO would intervene in Hungary.

They’re not taking over Hungary over land, sea or air. They’re taking it over the internet. The same way they’ve done with the US.

 

[Towered]

Of course, but it's hardly a realistic concern. See the map I posted above, and here. It's over 1,500 kms from the front line at Zaporizhzhia to Budapest. Between early November 2025 and early January 2026, Russian forces advanced roughly 18.5 kilometers, at an average pace of 297 meters per day. At that rate it would take over five thousand days (14 years) to reach Budapest. I think your homeland is safe.

In recent weeks Ukraine has actually liberated several villages and smallish tracts of territory, so Russia is losing ground.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Russia is losing ground.

Liberation of a couple tiny hamlets by UAF does not make up for the steady onslaught of Russians being thrown into the meat grinder.

Russia has been steadily gaining around 400 square kilometers a month for over a year now. While December-January are showing a slight decrease in their pace, that's a typical seasonal dip in the pace of their advance. Winter is bad for offensive operations in the drone kill zone - no foliage cover, and you stick out like a sore thumb on thermal cameras. However, even with that, the Russian advances are a lot bigger this winter compared to the last.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2018700348752314855

https://twitter.com/x/status/2018685145188864422

In December the Russians paid the price at a rate of 35,000 casualties per 350 square kilometers gained. Do your own math on that one...